5 Biggest Takeaways from the 1st Month of Cincinnati Reds' Season
The first month of the 2015 MLB season has come and gone, and the Cincinnati Reds have done a good job of showing the doubters they are still capable of making some noise.
Although the team could have ended the month with a much better record than 11-11, it has to be happy with where it is after facing a tough schedule to open the year—Cincinnati did not face a team outside of the National League Central until the final day of the month.
The Reds are still trying to get all of their pieces in place, mainly trying to find a lineup that works. Until that happens, it will be difficult for the team to hit its stride and become a legitimate playoff contender.
Reds fans learned plenty about their team in the first month of the season, whether it was good or bad. Keep reading to see what the biggest takeaways were for this club.
Joey Votto Is Back to MVP Form
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Coming off of a season in which he was limited to just 62 games due to a quad injury, Joey Votto is looking like the player who won the 2010 National League Most Valuable Player award.
April was one of the best all-around months of the nine-year veteran's career. Votto hit .317 with seven home runs, four doubles, one triple and 17 RBI in the first month of the season. To put those numbers in perspective, that was considered a normal month for him back in 2010.
The past few seasons, many Reds fans have gotten frustrated with Votto's approach. He has always been focused more on not making outs than driving in runs. This year, he has been able to get on base (a .423 on-base percentage in April) and show some pop (1.069 OPS).
This is the Votto the Reds were expecting to see when they signed him to a massive contract a few years ago. Last year's injury had many wondering about Votto's long-term production, but he has quickly put all of those worries to rest with a scorching start to this season.
Johnny Cueto Is Likely Pitching His Final Season in Cincinnati
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The good news is that Johnny Cueto is so good that he may capture the first Cy Young Award in Reds history (if he is in Cincinnati the entire season). The bad news is that Cueto is so good that he is pitching his way out of Cincinnati's budget.
Cueto won 20 games last year on his way to finishing second in the NL Cy Young Award voting. Well, he has picked up right where he left off.
Through his first five starts, Cueto has posted a 1.95 ERA and a league-leading 0.730 WHIP in 37 innings. So far, his strikeouts per nine innings (9.2), walks per nine innings (1.2) and home runs per nine innings (5.4) are all better than last year's numbers.
Cueto's hot start could mean that the right-hander is in the driver's seat to be the NL's starter in the 2015 All-Star Game, which is in Cincinnati. That would certainly add even more buzz to the game.
What Cueto has been doing while pitching half of his games at Great American Ball Park is incredible. Unfortunately for Cincinnati fans, they better cherish each and every start the 29-year-old makes this season because he likely isn't going to be wearing a Reds uniform past this season.
Mat Latos Trade Is Looking Good for Reds
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Many saw the Reds' trading of Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon as "rebuilding" moves. Somewhat surprisingly, the team's rotation has been able to hold its own through the first month.
The biggest reason: Anthony DeSclafani.
Cincinnati knew it could count on Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake. It had hoped Homer Bailey would be able to return from injury in the middle of April and give the Reds a formidable trio atop the rotation. However, after just two starts, Bailey was shut down and will now undergo Tommy John surgery.
Thankfully for the Reds, DeSclafani has been great early on. The right-hander appeared in 13 games (five starts) with the Miami Marlins in 2014 and put up a 6.27 ERA in 33 innings. This season, the 25-year-old has a 2.03 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 31 innings. In April, he did not have a start in which he allowed more than two earned runs.
The Reds pulled the trigger on the Latos deal this winter because they were extremely high on DeSclafani. He has already been able to exceed the club's expectations early on.
As for Latos, things aren't going smoothly down in South Beach. The right-hander has logged just 21 innings through five starts, posting a 0-3 record, a 6.86 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP. Unfortunately for him, he had to leave his last start with a hamstring injury.
Cincinnati dealt Latos—who is making $9.4 million this season—in order to shed some payroll. However, given how unlikely it is that the team will be able to re-sign Johnny Cueto, it was a bit curious the team would trade Latos rather than try to sign him to an extension. Given the recent injury history, which included an elbow injury, it might make one wonder if the Reds had some concerns about the 27-year-old's long-term health.
The hamstring injury is not something that was related to any of his previous injuries. However, there were some worrisome signs when it came to Latos. Most notably, his velocity has steadily declined over the years. According to FanGraphs, Latos' fastball is averaging a career-low 90.7 mph this season. That's troubling considering he is a power pitcher.
There is no question that Latos was a legitimate No. 1 during his time in Cincinnati. Losing him certainly made the rotation take a step back. Thanks to DeSclafani, however, the step back hasn't been as drastic as some feared.
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Offense Relies HEAVILY on Home Runs
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The Reds offense is exactly what we thought it would be: very reliant on the long ball.
In April, Cincinnati ranked second in the majors in home runs (31) but was just 28th in average (.224). The team scored 89 total runs in the opening month, which put it in the middle of the pack. However, without so many home runs, this team would've been near the bottom of the league in runs scored.
According to statistician Joel Luckhaupt, the Reds scored a staggering 55 percent of their runs via the long ball. Cincinnati has been known to rely on home runs in the past, but it really has never been quite this much. Luckhaupt also noted that this is only the second time since 1970 that the Reds have ended April with more than 45 percent of their runs scored via home runs.
How big of a problem is this stat? Each of Todd Frazier's last four hits have been home runs. While that would be cool to see in a one- or two-game stretch, it's something that has happened over a period of seven games. This team needs one of its key offensive players to be helping start (or continue) rallies.
The Reds are likely to rely less on the long ball as the season goes on. Right now, it's just at a ridiculous number.
On the plus side, the club is getting power throughout its lineup. Here's a breakdown of the Reds' April home runs:
| Player | Home Runs |
| Joey Votto | 7 |
| Todd Frazier | 7 |
| Jay Bruce | 5 |
| Zack Cozart | 4 |
| Tucker Barnhart | 2 |
| Marlon Byrd | 2 |
| Billy Hamilton | 2 |
| Brandon Phillips | 1 |
| Mike Leake | 1 |
Joey Votto, Zack Cozart and Tucker Barnhart have each already eclipsed their home run totals from a season ago.
Given that the team struggled to hit for average last season, this is pretty much what we expected from the offense. Getting Votto and Jay Bruce back healthy was certainly going to improve the offense, and adding Marlon Byrd was supposed to add some pop down in the lineup. In other words, nobody should be surprised this team is relying heavily on home runs.
However, if the Reds want to make a run to October, they better find a way to start getting timely hits. A .206 average with runners in scoring position isn't going to lead to a lot of victories.
Bullpen Is Still a Major Problem
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For those who thought the only way for the bullpen to go from last year was up, think again.
This bullpen is still a mess.
Last year, Cincinnati's bullpen ranked 26th in baseball with a 4.11 ERA and tied for second in the majors with 31 losses. Despite making some changes in the offseason, the bullpen hasn't gotten any better in 2015.
The Reds' bullpen ranks dead last in all of baseball with a 5.52 ERA. That number is even more remarkable when you realize that it has thrown the second-fewest innings (62) in the majors. Reds relievers have also combined for five blown saves, none of which have been by closer Aroldis Chapman.
This bullpen has been bad enough that it could keep the team from staying in contention.
Let's take a look at some of the most ineffective relievers (through May 2):
| Pitcher | G | IP | ERA | H | R | HR | K | BB | AVG | WHIP |
| Kevin Gregg | 10 | 10.0 | 8.10 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 3 | .250 | 1.30 |
| Manny Parra | 7 | 7 | 2.70 | 7 | 2 (1 ER) | 0 | 3 | 3 | .438 | 3.00 |
| Burke Badenhop | 9 | 7 | 15.43 | 16 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 3 | .457 | 2.71 |
| Jumbo Diaz | 10 | 8.2 | 9.35 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 2 | .278 | 1.38 |
In other words, manager Bryan Price hasn't been able to rely on half of his bullpen. And yet he still continues to put the same relievers in important situations. At some point, he has to do something different if he wants better results.
Right now, Chapman and Tony Cingrani—and maybe J.J. Hoover—are the only relievers Price can trust. Take Chapman's numbers out of the mix and the bullpen has a 6.66 ERA this season. Subtract Cingrani from the equation as well and the bullpen's ERA is 7.59. Yikes.
To his credit, Price has started using Cingrani more as of late. The southpaw threw 2.2 innings over three outings through April 25. Since then, he has appeared in five games and thrown 5.1 innings.
It's tough for a manager to only be able to rely on two or three relievers. If the rest of the unit doesn't get it together, the Reds will be forced to make some changes.
All stats are via MLB.com through April 30 unless otherwise noted
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