Los Angeles Clippers vs. Houston Rockets: 2nd-Round Analysis and Predictions
It took seven games and some heroics from Chris Paul, but the Los Angeles Clippers are officially slated for a second-round matchup with the second-seeded Houston Rockets.
After splitting the season series two games apiece, the Rockets and Clippers will exchange pleasantries in a showdown littered with superstars, scoring power and shots at historic postseason progress. However, Dwight Howard missed all four regular-season contests, while Blake Griffin was absent from two.
And with Paul limping into Game 1, according to ESPN.com's Arash Markazi, it's looking like the Clippers will continue to operate at less than 100 percent.
Nonetheless, this showdown packs tremendous intrigue, particularly with the San Antonio Spurs out of the picture.
As the defending champions prepare to hand the title baton off to a deserving franchise, Houston will look to keep the Larry O'Brien Trophy safe and sound in the state of Texas. The Clippers, however, have some unfinished business to take care of that could result in the title belt making its way to Hollywood.
That is, if their legs can hold up.
Head-to-Head Record: Split season series, 2-2
| Nov. 28 | 102-85 Clippers | Blake drops 30 |
| Feb. 11 | 110-95 Clippers | DeAndre goes for 24 and 20 boards |
| Feb. 25 | 110-105 Rockets | Brewer adds 20 off the bench |
| March 15 | 100-98 Rockets | Harden pours in 34 |
Series Schedule
| Game 1 | May 4 | 9:30 p.m. ET | Houston, TX | TNT |
| Game 2 | May 6 | 9:30 p.m. ET | Houston, TX | TNT |
| Game 3 | May 8 | 10:30 p.m. ET | Los Angeles, CA | ESPN |
| Game 4 | May 10 | 8:30 p.m. ET | Los Angeles, CA | TNT |
| Game 5* | May 12 | TBD | Houston, TX | TNT |
| Game 6* | May 14 | TBD | Los Angeles, CA | ESPN |
| Game 7* | May 17 | TBD | Houston, TX | TBD |
Key Season Stats
| Houston Rockets | 30-11 | 26-15 | 104.2 (12) | 100.5 (6) | 3.7 (6) |
| L.A. Clippers | 30-11 | 26-15 | 109.8 (1) | 103.0 (15) | 6.9 (2) |
Rockets' X-Factor: Josh Smith
Josh Smith's play in Round 1 was a revelation.
Over the course of five games against the Dallas Mavericks, Smith ranked second on the Rockets in scoring (17.4 points) and assists (3.8) while clocking in at third in three-point percentage (39.1).
Smith was also a 51.5 percent shooter from the field, which helped the Rockets rank third among all teams in bench scoring during the first round.
"Before adding Smith and Brewer, the bench had averaged just 21.5 points per game," the Houston Chronicle's Jonathan Feigen wrote. "Since they became the anchors of the second unit, the bench averaged 33.7 points through the rest of the season. In the playoffs, they have moved into starring roles, with Smith averaging 17.4 points, 6.4 rebounds and 3.8 assists; Brewer is averaging 14.4 points."
Not only is J. Smoove an unsuspecting distributor in 4-5 pick-and-rolls with Howard, but he can be surprisingly steady as an outside shooter when afforded enough space. Against Dallas, Smith drilled 43.8 percent of his threes when a defender was more than six feet away, according to SportVU player-tracking data.
If he can replicate that production in Round 2, the odds will be in Houston's favor.
Clippers' X-Factor: Chris Paul's Health
All eyes are on Paul's tender left hamstring.
Despite coming up lame in the first quarter with a hamstring strain, Paul soldiered on and finished with 27 points on 9-of-13 shooting (5-of-6 from three), including a game-winning runner with one second left, to catapult L.A. back into the second round.
But now the series shifts. After battling the Spurs for seven games, the Clippers have been left with barely any time to rest before Game 1, which is bad news for a gimpy Paul.
That said, head coach Doc Rivers knows his team's point guard has the heart of a lion, according to the Los Angeles Daily News' Mark Medina:
In four regular-season meetings with the Rockets, Paul nearly averaged a double-double (16.8 points, 9.5 assists), but he shot a paltry 36.7 percent from the field.
The good news is that Houston's thin at point guard with Patrick Beverley (wrist) sidelined, meaning the Rockets are devoid of tenacious on-ball defenders who can step up and make Paul uncomfortable on a regular basis.
Starters' PER Comparison
Three Pressing Questions
Can Dwight Howard Continue His Dominance?
If the Rockets are going to qualify for their first Western Conference finals since 1997, Howard has to keep playing a punishing style in the paint.
In the first round, Howard was one of two players—along with Blake Griffin—to average at least 16 points and 13 rebounds. Continually camped out down low, Superman has attempted all but one of his postseason shots in the paint.
The key, though, will be getting Howard his normal distribution of shots in opportune play types. Of late, he's been a terror diving to the basket on pick-and-rolls or as a cleanup man grabbing offensive rebounds.
Essentially, the Rockets need to get him the ball with his momentum moving toward the basket. As a post-up threat, Howard has continually underwhelmed, and that trend held true against the Mavericks. On 31 first-round post-ups, Howard scored 0.77 points per possession, which ranked in the 33rd percentile, according to Synergy Sports.
Feeding Howard within the flow of the offense is overwhelmingly beneficial to the Rockets, but clearing out and asking him to play with his back to the basket only stands to hinder his effectiveness.
Will the Clippers Bench Step Up?
Jamal Crawford, Glen Davis and Austin Rivers, please stand up.
With L.A. eyeing the first conference finals berth in franchise history, that trio will need to put forth a superlative effort in order to prevent the starting five's legs from disintegrating into dust against a Rockets team that's received exponentially more time to recharge.
Against the Spurs, Griffin, Paul and J.J. Redick each topped 39 minutes per game, and Jordan wasn't far behind at just over 36 minutes.
As Paul attempts to stave off the ill effects of his hamstring injury, Crawford will be key. He offers L.A. another stable ball-handling presence on a team that's devoid of depth at point guard.
And how about this: In first-round wins, the Clippers were plus-14 with Crawford on the floor. In losses, they were minus-14 during those stretches.
There's been a tremendous burden on the team's starters all year long, so they're used to shouldering the load. However, that doesn't mean spurts of relief won't be welcome.
Which Team Will Win the Free-Throw Battle?
The Rockets got to the free-throw line a whopping 36.8 times per game during the first round, which was tops among all teams by a solid five attempts.
However, volume doesn't necessarily translate to efficiency, as Houston proved throughout the regular season.
Though freebies flowed at a ridiculous rate, the Rockets hit 67.9 percent of them during their five-game first-round victory. A big piece of that problem was Howard, who knocked down 46.3 percent of his free throws while attempting 8.2 per game.
However, L.A. was actually worse as a result of the Spurs' hacking philosophy, which sent Jordan to the line a disproportionate number of times (10.4 per game). In their seven-game set against San Antonio, the Clippers shot a first-round low 64.7 percent from the line.
With 15-foot consistency elusive for the past two weeks, the pressure's on the big men to step up and deliver extra hits that could change the course of the series.
Why the Rockets Will Win
They have the depth to supplement their star power. At least, that's what the first round led us to believe.
Outside of Harden and Howard putting on a clinic, Smith, Corey Brewer, Jason Terry, Trevor Ariza, Terrence Jones and Pablo Prigioni stepped up to offer additional scoring, passing, rebounding and perimeter defending.
The onus, of course, will fall on the Rockets' two studs, but their ability to command defensive attention and deflect it away from ancillary scorers will be key.
Against Dallas, Brewer and Terry hit 53.3 and 47.1 percent of their threes, respectively, and that sort of consistency could prove to be the difference over the long haul.
"If we don't have Brew and Josh come to our team, we're not here right now, doing this," coach Kevin McHale said, per Feigen. "Those two guys have been fantastic for us."
In order to take advantage of Los Angeles' short bench, Houston needs more than dynamism from its All-Star-caliber tandem—it needs every key contributor to provide the balance necessary to sustain an offense that has been prone to inefficiency.
Why the Clippers Will Win
It all comes back to the Clippers offense. Specifically, the offense provided by L.A.'s starters.
With a rotation that generally goes eight men deep, the Clippers need to lean on Paul, Griffin, Jordan, Redick and Barnes to do nearly all of the heavy lifting.
Case in point: During the first round, L.A.'s starters averaged 80.7 points, while the bench chipped in just 22.3 a night. That distribution is indicative of imbalance that can be temporarily crippling if members of the starting five encounter foul trouble.
But even so, the Clippers stand a chance. Their stars thrived in big spots against a deeper Spurs team and delivered.
And if that formula worked against the defending champs, it undoubtedly stands a chance against a less proven Rockets team.
Prediction: Houston Rockets in 7
All statistics are current as of May 3 and courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless noted otherwise.
Alec Nathan covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @AlecBNathan.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
