Early 2015 MLB All-Star Team Predictions Entering May Baseball
The first month of the 2015 MLB season is now behind us, and while there is still a lot of baseball to be played between now and the All-Star Game on July 14 in Cincinnati, it's never too early to start debating who could be suiting up for the Midsummer Classic.
What follows is an entirely-too-early set of predictions for who makes up the 34-man roster in both the American League and National League.
To clarify, this is not necessarily the 68 most deserving players based on the first month of the season, but instead, a forward-looking projection of who will be part of the festivities come July.
Would Clayton Kershaw be deserving of an All-Star spot if the game were played tomorrow? Probably not, but there's a good chance he is once July rolls around.
At the same time, guys like DJ LeMahieu and Anthony DeSclafani would be shoo-ins to make it here at the beginning of May, but can they keep their hot starts going for the next two-plus months?
With that in mind, track record and future expectations inevitably played as big or bigger a role in picking players here than April statistics alone.
No one is going to agree with this 100 percent—that's one prediction that can be made with relative certainty, so let the debate begin.
AL Starters
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AL Starters
Lineup
| 1. 2B Jose Altuve, HOU | .371/.412/.524 | 39 | 7 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 9 |
| 2. RF Mike Trout, LAA | .333/.441/.619 | 28 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 22 | 6 |
| 3. 1B Miguel Cabrera, DET | .348/.449/.584 | 31 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 12 | 1 |
| 4. DH Nelson Cruz, SEA | .347/.392/.811 | 33 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 17 | 1 |
| 5. CF Adam Jones, BAL | .373/.413/.651 | 31 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 17 | 0 |
| 6. LF Hanley Ramirez, BOS | .281/.333/.618 | 25 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 16 | 1 |
| 7. 3B Josh Donaldson, TOR | .316/.382/.561 | 31 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 21 | 2 |
| 8. C Salvador Perez, KC | .333/.344/.484 | 31 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 1 |
| 9. SS Jose Iglesias, DET | .351/.398/.494 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 5 |
A number of fairly safe bets to start on the American League side of things, as Miguel Cabrera, Josh Donaldson, Mike Trout, Adam Jones and Nelson Cruz were all voted to start last season and look like solid bets to do so again this season.
Salvador Perez should be the runaway choice behind the plate, and the same goes for Hanley Ramirez filling the final outfield spot if he keeps launching home runs the way he has over the first month of the season.
That leaves second base and shortstop as the races to really keep an eye on.
Robinson Cano has started the past five All-Star Games on the AL side, but he and the Seattle Mariners are off to a slow start, and that could open things up for fan favorite Jose Altuve to make his first career start.
As for the AL shortstop spot, that is by far the weakest position in either league right now. Jose Iglesias figures to come back to earth a bit offensively at some point, but his hot start, terrific glove and the fact that he's playing for one of the better teams in the league could be enough to add up to a start.
AL Reserves
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AL Reserves
Catchers
| Russell Martin, TOR | .214/.364/.457 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 15 | 1 |
| Stephen Vogt, OAK | .343/.434/.586 | 24 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 12 | 0 |
Stephen Vogt is an easy choice for one of the backup catcher spots, as he's taken over as the primary backstop in Oakland and been arguably the team's best hitter. As for the third catcher on the roster, veterans Russell Martin and Brian McCann look like the leading candidates, with Martin off to the better start and the better defender.
Infielders
| 1B Jose Abreu, CWS | .268/.326/.537 | 22 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 8 | 0 |
| SS Xander Bogaerts, BOS | .263/.330/.350 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 2 |
| 1B Eric Hosmer, KC | .315/.402/.489 | 29 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 2 |
| 3B Evan Longoria, TB | .280/.381/.415 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| 3B Mike Moustakas, KC | .337/.398/.490 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 1 |
| 2B Dustin Pedroia, BOS | .290/.374/.495 | 27 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 12 | 0 |
| 2B Devon Travis, TOR | .325/.404/.614 | 27 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 1 |
Jose Abreu is a lock if he doesn't edge out Miguel Cabrera to start at first base, but the rest of the AL bench is up for grabs.
Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas are both deserving based on their first month's performance, and they'll have the added benefit of their own manager Ned Yost making the final few selections to fill out the roster.
Veterans Dustin Pedroia and Evan Longoria are both off to strong starts and have the respect of their peers, so they seem to have a solid chance of being voted to the team.
Rounding things out, we need a backup shortstop. Xander Bogaerts looks like the best of the bunch at this point and still has plenty of upside moving forward. Rookie second baseman Devon Travis gets the final spot, as he's been one of the biggest surprises of the first month and looks to be for real.
Outfielders
| LF Michael Brantley, CLE | .338/.384/.485 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 3 |
| CF Lorenzo Cain, KC | .333/.402/.500 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 6 |
| LF Alex Gordon, KC | .270/.386/.446 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 0 |
Two more Royals find their way onto the roster here.
Alex Gordon is a safe bet to be voted in by his peers, while it's hard to imagine Yost not finding a spot for Lorenzo Cain given how much he meant to the team last year and how well he's played in the early parts of this season.
A back injury has slowed Michael Brantley in the power department, but he's still hitting well over .300 and has been by far the best hitter in the Cleveland Indians lineup. As he gets closer to 100 percent and his pop returns, he should have no trouble finding his way onto the roster.
AL Pitchers
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Starting Pitchers
| RHP Chris Archer, TB | 3-3 | 1.64 | 0.89 | 10 | 42 | 38.1 | .176 |
| RHP Trevor Bauer, CLE | 2-0 | 1.80 | 1.12 | 13 | 28 | 25.0 | .174 |
| RHP Sonny Gray, OAK | 3-0 | 1.98 | 0.88 | 6 | 25 | 36.1 | .202 |
| RHP Felix Hernandez, SEA | 4-0 | 1.82 | 0.81 | 6 | 36 | 34.2 | .182 |
| LHP Scott Kazmir, OAK | 2-0 | 1.62 | 0.93 | 10 | 36 | 33.1 | .178 |
| LHP Dallas Keuchel, HOU | 3-0 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 11 | 22 | 37.0 | .130 |
| RHP Nick Martinez, TEX | 2-0 | 0.84 | 1.13 | 8 | 13 | 32.0 | .237 |
| LHP David Price, DET | 3-1 | 2.93 | 1.10 | 10 | 32 | 40.0 | .227 |
Pitchers are tough to predict, and an injury or a string of bad starts could easily remove any of the above arms from the conversation.
That being said, guys like Felix Hernandez, Sonny Gray and David Price seem like the safest bets to earn a spot on the team. At the same time, Chris Sale is on the outside looking in right now, but he could easily pitch his way into the conversation as well.
Left-handers Scott Kazmir and Dallas Keuchel have both been brilliant and have the stuff to continue pitching at an All-Star level.
A pair of young arms in Chris Archer and Trevor Bauer could wind up being the breakout pitchers of 2015, with Archer in particular putting up perhaps the best numbers of any pitcher in April. Bauer is probably the pick I'm least confident in here, but he has impressed early on and has the stuff to sustain that success.
Nick Martinez rounds out the crop of starting pitchers. With a very low strikeout rate, there's a good chance he regresses at some point, but the Texas Rangers need a representative and he looks like the best bet so far.
For the record, King Felix is my pick to earn the start.
Relief Pitchers
| RHP Dellin Betances, NYY | 3-0 | 1/1 | 6 | 0.00 | 0.95 | 4.9 | 15.3 |
| LHP Andrew Miller, NYY | 0-0 | 9/9 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 2.9 | 15.3 |
| LHP Glen Perkins, MIN | 0-0 | 8/8 | 0 | 0.82 | 0.64 | 0.0 | 7.4 |
| RHP Joakim Soria, DET | 1-0 | 9/9 | 0 | 1.69 | 0.66 | 1.7 | 5.9 |
| RHP Huston Street, LAA | 0-0 | 9/9 | 0 | 1.00 | 0.89 | 3.0 | 10.0 |
As expected, the New York Yankees' one-two punch of Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller has given them one of the best bullpens in the league, and both guys look like strong All-Star candidates as a result.
The Minnesota Twins need a representative, so Glen Perkins looks like a safe bet, while veterans Joakim Soria and Huston Street have both been dominant once again this season.
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AL Roster Breakdown, Snubs
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Team-By-Team Breakdown
BAL (1): CF Adam Jones
BOS (3): 2B Dustin Pedroia, SS Xander Bogaerts, LF Hanley Ramirez
CLE (2): LF Michael Brantley, SP Trevor Bauer
CWS (1): 1B Jose Abreu
DET (4): 1B Miguel Cabrera, SS Jose Iglesias, SP David Price, RP Joakim Soria
HOU (2): 2B Jose Altuve, SP Dallas Keuchel
KC (5): C Salvador Perez, 1B Eric Hosmer, 3B Mike Moustakas, LF Alex Gordon, CF Lorenzo Cain
LAA (2): CF Mike Trout, RP Huston Street
MIN (1): RP Glen Perkins
NYY (2): RP Dellin Betances, RP Andrew Miller
OAK (3): C Stephen Vogt, SP Sonny Gray, SP Scott Kazmir
SEA (2): DH Nelson Cruz, SP Felix Hernandez
TB (2): 3B Evan Longoria, SP Chris Archer
TEX (1): SP Nick Martinez
TOR (3): C Russell Martin, 2B Devon Travis, 3B Josh Donaldson
Current Snubs (based on 2015 performance)
1B Prince Fielder (TEX), 1B Mark Teixeira (NYY), 3B Pablo Sandoval (BOS), LF Yoenis Cespedes (DET), CF Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY), CF Jake Marisnick (HOU), RF Josh Reddick (OAK), DH Kendrys Morales (KC), SP Ubaldo Jimenez (BAL), SP Collin McHugh (HOU), SP Jake Odorizzi (TB), SP Edinson Volquez (KC), RP Brad Boxberger (TB), RP Zach Britton (BAL), RP Wade Davis (KC), RP David Robertson (CWS)
NL Starters
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NL Starters
Lineup
| 1. CF Andrew McCutchen, PIT | .198/.302/.321 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 12 | 0 |
| 2. LF Bryce Harper, WAS | .265/.426/.506 | 22 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 18 | 0 |
| 3. RF Giancarlo Stanton, MIA | .270/.359/.562 | 24 | 6 | 6 | 23 | 17 | 2 |
| 4. 1B Adrian Gonzalez, LAD | .371/.417/.753 | 33 | 10 | 8 | 20 | 20 | 0 |
| 5. DH Paul Goldschmidt, ARI | .341/.440/.612 | 29 | 5 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 5 |
| 6. C Buster Posey, SF | .273/.337/.432 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 0 |
| 7. 3B Nolan Arenado, COL | .296/.333/.543 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 0 |
| 8. SS Starlin Castro, CHC | .319/.340/.396 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 2 |
| 9. 2B Howie Kendrick, LAD | .294/.355/.506 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 2 |
The National League figures to have a few more new starters than the American League side, and of the above projected lineup, only Andrew McCutchen, Paul Goldschmidt and Giancarlo Stanton remain from the 2014 NL starters.
Goldschmidt actually started at first base last year, but he's the pick here to be selected as the NL designated hitter. Meanwhile, Stanton got the nod at DH last year, but he should have a good shot being voted in as a starter in the outfield.
McCutchen is off to a slow start, but he's a fan favorite and the face of one of the better teams in the NL, so he is still a strong candidate to win the fan vote.
Chase Utley, Troy Tulowitzki and Aramis Ramirez rounded out the NL infield a year ago, and we could be in for a changing for the guard. Young stars Starlin Castro and Nolan Arenado are in a good position to make their first start, while Howie Kendrick is putting up good numbers in a big market.
Bryce Harper, Adrian Gonzalez and Buster Posey have all started All-Star Games in the past, so they could add another start to their resume here in 2015.
NL Reserves
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NL Reserves
Catchers
| Travis d'Arnaud, NYM | .317/.356/.537 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 0 |
| Derek Norris, SD | .337/.352/.494 | 30 | 11 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 0 |
Derek Norris did not receive quite the same fanfare as some of the Padres' other offseason acquisitions, but he's been arguably their best hitter through the first month of the season and is in line for a second straight trip to the All-Star Game. Travis d'Arnaud is currently sidelined with a fractured finger, but the NL catching crop is weak, and he'll have a good chance if the Mets keep winning.
Infielders
| 3B Kris Bryant, CHC | .280/.429/.360 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 2 |
| 3B Matt Carpenter, STL | .366/.434/.634 | 34 | 14 | 3 | 15 | 21 | 0 |
| 2B Dee Gordon, MIA | .440/.463/.510 | 44 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 15 | 11 |
| 1B Anthony Rizzo, CHC | .324/.480/.500 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 6 |
| SS Jean Segura, MIL | .298/.327/.394 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 5 |
| SS Troy Tulowitzki, COL | .302/.315/.512 | 26 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 0 |
| 1B Joey Votto, CIN | .322/.425/.622 | 29 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 15 | 4 |
First base in the NL might be the deepest position in baseball, with Anthony Rizzo and Joey Votto edging out Lucas Duda, Adam Lind, Freddie Freeman and others here.
Dee Gordon and DJ LeMahieu had the two highest batting averages in baseball during the first month, but I see LeMahieu regressing significantly in the weeks to come with a .439 BABIP (via FanGraphs). It will be a tight race between Gordon and Howie Kendrick for the starting second base job, and both guys will wind up on the roster.
The Milwaukee Brewers need a representative, so Jean Segura gets a spot on the NL bench. Troy Tulowitzki is not off to quite as torrid a pace as last year, but he probably still has a good chance of being voted in by the players.
Matt Carpenter might be the NL MVP if the season ended today, but frequent appearances on the SportsCenter Top 10 by Nolan Arenado could wind up earning him the starting job. Both guys belong, regardless.
Rounding things out is Chicago Cubs rookie and top prospect Kris Bryant, who is still looking for his first home run but has shown terrific discipline since his inauspicious debut. He's going to catch fire at some point.
Outfielders
| LF Matt Holliday, STL | .342/.473/.438 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 12 | 2 |
| RF Matt Kemp, SD | .327/.355/.465 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 17 | 17 | 4 |
| CF Joc Pederson, LAD | .292/.447/.646 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 1 |
Veterans Matt Holliday and Matt Kemp are easy choices for two of the backup outfield spots, leaving one spot up for grabs.
Kemp's teammate Justin Upton is off to a nice start and Starling Marte is coming on strong for the Pittsburgh Pirates, but we'll go with another rookie in Joc Pederson, as his red-hot spring training has carried over to the regular season.
NL Pitchers
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Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jake Arrieta, CHC | 3-2 | 2.84 | 1.04 | 8 | 31 | 31.2 | .212 |
| RHP Gerrit Cole, PIT | 4-0 | 1.76 | 0.98 | 8 | 35 | 30.2 | .198 |
| RHP Johnny Cueto, CIN | 2-2 | 1.95 | 0.73 | 5 | 38 | 37.0 | .172 |
| RHP Zack Greinke, LAD | 4-0 | 1.93 | 0.92 | 7 | 27 | 32.2 | .193 |
| LHP Cole Hamels, PHI | 1-3 | 4.14 | 1.35 | 19 | 38 | 37.0 | .226 |
| RHP Matt Harvey, NYM | 5-0 | 2.41 | 0.92 | 4 | 34 | 33.2 | .220 |
| LHP Clayton Kershaw, LAD | 1-2 | 3.73 | 1.24 | 7 | 43 | 31.1 | .267 |
| RHP Max Scherzer, WAS | 1-3 | 1.26 | 0.84 | 5 | 39 | 35.2 | .189 |
| RHP Julio Teheran, ATL | 2-1 | 4.67 | 1.56 | 12 | 22 | 27.0 | .294 |
Barring something crazy happening over the next couple months, plan on seeing Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, Matt Harvey and Johnny Cueto all selected as part of the NL pitching staff.
The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves both need a representative, so let's assume their aces Cole Hamels and Julio Teheran rebound from slow starts and are pitching well enough to be the choice once July rolls around.
That leaves one or two starting pitching openings, depending on how many relievers are selected, and we'll go with a pair of emerging aces in the NL Central in Gerrit Cole and Jake Arrieta.
James Shields is off to a great start in San Diego and could very well work his way into the mix here, while guys like Anthony DeSclafani and Carlos Martinez have a strong first month under their belt but limited track records to back it up.
With the game being played in Cincinnati, expect Cueto to get the starting assignment for the NL.
Relief Pitchers
| LHP Aroldis Chapman, CIN | 1-0 | 5/5 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 2.5 | 16.0 |
| RHP Jeurys Familia, NYM | 0-0 | 10/10 | 1 | 1.46 | 0.57 | 2.2 | 10.9 |
| RHP Trevor Rosenthal, STL | 0-0 | 8/8 | 0 | 0.77 | 0.94 | 4.6 | 10.8 |
| RHP Jordan Walden, STL | 0-1 | 1/1 | 8 | 0.87 | 1.06 | 3.5 | 10.5 |
Aroldis Chapman has been his usual dominant self, and he'll be an easy pick with Cincinnati hosting the game.
Jordan Walden and Trevor Rosenthal have been a dynamic one-two punch at the back of the St. Louis bullpen, and Walden looks like the best choice among setup men right now, a role that has gotten more and more love in the Midsummer Classic over the past few years.
Rounding things out is Jeurys Familia, who has stepped in for the suspended Jenrry Mejia and done a phenomenal job in the ninth inning for the New York Mets.
NL Roster Breakdown, Snubs
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Team-By-Team Breakdown
ARI (1): 1B Paul Goldschmidt
ATL (1): SP Julio Teheran
CHC (4): 1B Anthony Rizzo, 3B Kris Bryant, SS Starlin Castro, SP Jake Arrieta
CIN (3): 1B Joey Votto, SP Johnny Cueto, RP Aroldis Chapman
COL (2): 3B Nolan Arenado, SS Troy Tulowitzki
LAD (5): 1B Adrian Gonzalez, 2B Howie Kendrick, CF Joc Pederson, SP Zack Greinke, SP Clayton Kershaw
MIA (2): 2B Dee Gordon, RF Giancarlo Stanton
MIL (1): SS Jean Segura
NYM (3): C Travis d'Arnaud, SP Matt Harvey, RP Jeurys Familia
PHI (1): SP Cole Hamels
PIT (2): CF Andrew McCutchen, SP Gerrit Cole
SD (2): C Derek Norris, RF Matt Kemp
SF (1): C Buster Posey
STL (4): 3B Matt Carpenter, LF Matt Holliday, RP Trevor Rosenthal, RP Jordan Walden
WAS (2): RF Bryce Harper, SP Max Scherzer
Current Snubs (based on 2015 performance)
1B Lucas Duda (NYM), 1B Adam Lind (MIL), 2B DJ LeMahieu (COL), SS Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA), LF Corey Dickerson (COL), LF Justin Upton (SD), CF Angel Pagan (SF), SP A.J. Burnett (PIT), SP Jarred Cosart (MIA), SP Anthony DeSclafani (CIN), SP Francisco Liriano (PIT), SP Carlos Martinez (STL), SP James Shields (SD), RP Yimi Garcia (LAD)
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.
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