Does USC or Notre Dame Have Better Shot of Reaching 2015-16 Playoff?

On Saturday, Oct. 17, Notre Dame and USC will face off in South Bend for what could very well be a game between top-10 teams with playoff implications. 

The last time the Irish had a game like that, they were 6-0 on the road at Florida State. It was around the same date, too—Oct. 18, 2014. However, Brian Kelly's team lost 31-27 in the final seconds—and then lost four of their next five regular season games. 

Can Notre Dame avoid another letdown? For that matter, is USC finally ready to take the next step back into college football's elite group? 

Some of those questions could be answered in a little less than six months from now. As far as the entire 2015 season is concerned, which team—Notre Dame or USC—is more likely playoff bound?

The Case for Notre Dame

There are a lot of reasons to be excited about this team. Despite coming off of an 8-5 season, the Irish aren't lacking talent and return plenty of starters. Yes, it's a tired trend to think [insert new calendar year here] could finally be the season the Irish kick it into another gear, but the pieces are certainly there. 

Notre Dame's wide receiver group is the best in recent memory in both talent and depth, as noted by former B/R colleague Keith Arnold: 

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In a passing game that will emphasize getting vertical, [offensive coordinator Mike] Sanford has never had a weapon like William Fuller. Notre Dame's sophomore sensation went for 1,094 yards in 2014 while tying a school record with 15 receiving touchdowns. 

The depth behind him is the strength of the team. Notre Dame's top four receivers are all back—Chris Brown, Corey Robinson and C.J.Prosise will join Fuller—as are six of the top seven, with only tight end Ben Koyack departing. 

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The success of the offense ultimately comes down to whether quarterback play is going to be a liability or not. While the defense had its struggles—it was especially bad in November, giving up an average of 480 yards per game and 43.4 points per game—it was also dealt a bad hand.

Of Notre Dame's 26 turnovers last year, exactly half were committed during the final five-game stretch in November. And of those 26 turnovers, senior quarterback Everett Golson was responsible, directly or partially, for 22 of them. 

You don't want to blame everything on Golson. A bad snap, bad protection or an incorrect route can all lead to turnovers. 

That said, it's a tough number to ignore for a guy who's started 23 games. Golson's career has been filled with ups and downs, but when he's on, he can spin the football as well as anyone. In fact, a quick glance over Golson's personal and school records shows he was statistically excellent in 2014.

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

If the ball security issue wasn't, well, an issue, junior Malik Zaire probably wouldn't be in the picture. Instead, Zaire started the Music City Bowl against LSU and is in a dead heat with Golson for the starting quarterback job. That competition will continue into preseason camp and likely rests on the more consistent performer. 

“I think I’m just being better in being consistent on a daily basis,” Zaire said via Nick Ironside of 247Sports. “I think when you’re going through a transitional period of getting a lot of opportunities to play with the first-team and being in games and making an impact, the biggest thing that can continue your success throughout your career while being a Notre Dame quarterback is just being consistent." 

If Notre Dame can solve its turnover problem—and that's not to suggest it happens at the snap of a finger—it has the roster to win a lot of games. It has a defense that will be made up of mostly juniors and seniors and no shortage of skill players. 

The Case for USC

Even though USC loses its top rusher (Buck Allen) and pass-catcher (Nelson Agholor) it's possible this offense is even more explosive than last year. As crazy as it sounds given the talent, the Trojans actually didn't finish in the top three of the Pac-12 in any major statistical category in 2014. 

Unlike Notre Dame, USC has a proven, consistent quarterback in Cody Kessler. Other than Oregon's Marcus Mariota, no one in the Pac-12 was as efficient as Kessler was. He completed nearly 70 percent of his passes at 8.5 yards per attempt and threw for 3,826 yards and 39 touchdowns to just five interceptions. 

Kessler will miss Agholor, who caught one out of every three passes, but his absence is not insurmountable. During the Trojans' spring game, the new set of offensive weapons were on display. Receivers JuJu Smith, Steven Mitchell and Isaac Whitney were among those to impress.  

The offensive line is also much improved after starting three freshmen a year ago. "The experience has been unbelievable," head coach Steve Sarkisian told Heather Dinich of ESPN.com. "They played so much football last fall that now they come back, they're in spring practice, they can go back to the fundamentals, back to the basics. It really makes for a lot more positive experience for them. They're a much more confident group."

The main question for USC is the defensive front seven. Among those to depart that group is likely top-10 pick Leonard Williams and leading tackler Hayes Pullard. Unfortunately, injuries kept USC from showing off what the new D-line will look like next fall. 

Is that a concern? To a degree, yes, but it also means some patience needs to be exercised as well. And it's not like the Trojans are depleted on defense. The secondary is filled with playmakers like cornerback Adoree' Jackson and safety/linebacker Su'a Cravens.  

If the Trojans have to outscore opponents to win games in 2015—which wouldn't be uncommon for the Pac-12 anyway—they have the firepower to do it. 

Side-By-Side Comparison

Position	Team Advantage
Quarterback	USC
Running Back	Notre Dame
Wide Receiver/Tight End	Even
Offensive Line	USC
Defensive Line	Notre Dame
Linebackers	Notre Dame
Secondary	USC

Schedule Comparison

Team	Toughest Home Game	Toughest Road Game	Toughest Stretch
Notre Dame	USC (Oct. 17)	at Clemson (Oct. 3)	Sept. 19 - Oct. 17 (Georgia Tech, UMass, at Clemson, Navy, USC)
USC	UCLA (Nov. 28)	at Oregon (Nov. 21)	Sept. 19 - Oct. 17 (Stanford, at Arizona State, Washington, at Notre Dame)

Verdict

Roster-wise, these two teams are even. Both had tough losses a year ago and should be better off this time around because key players are coming back. Schedule-wise, it's a mixed bag. Notre Dame's slate is front-loaded while the Trojans have tough games late in the season. 

If the College Football Playoff committee stands by its words, it'll evaluate a team's whole body of work and not when a team loses; that was one of the biggest faults with the BCS. Overall, the full Pac-12 schedule is harder for USC, but Notre Dame has enough key games (Clemson, Georgia Tech, USC, Stanford) that it should be able to have some signature wins. 

It comes down to which concern is more glaring: USC's defensive front seven or Notre Dame's turnover issues. Whether it's easy or hard, ball security issues can be fixed. If USC is thin along the defensive line or lacking experience, there's no great answer for that. 

It's a tough one, but give me Notre Dame in the path that's more likely to produce a playoff team. 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.