Realistic Draft Trade Possibilities for the Minnesota Vikings
It's fair to say that the Minnesota Vikings are one of the most trade-happy teams in the NFL when it comes to drafting.
Aside from the constant moves up into the first round from the second round (three years running at this point), consistent moves at the top of the draft in order to move down have characterized the franchise's early moves.
They've made a bevy of mid-round moves as well, generally opting out of the second round in order to get more mid-day picks.
We explored some crazier trade options not too long ago, but it may serve us better to look out for some more realistic options with the draft mere days away.
Trade Adrian Peterson for a Late 1st or Early 2nd-Round Pick
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The idea of a trade for Adrian Peterson certainly isn't news to Vikings fans, or fans of the NFL in general. Though I had initially proposed that trade value for Peterson more closely matched a second-round pick plus a fourth-round pick (depending on draft slot), it seems like the market for Peterson has been moving upward.
Minnesota is either genuinely committed to keeping Adrian Peterson and would need to be "blown away" by an offer, per NFL.com's Ian Rapoport, or they're doing an excellent job of pushing a high-value market for Peterson.
They'll need all the value they can get, as Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports indicated that both the Atlanta Falcons and Dallas Cowboys are unlikely partners, as Atlanta declared they are "out" and Dallas hasn't even picked up the phone.
With head coach Gus Bradley of the Jacksonville Jaguars declaring that his team hasn't even had internal discussions about the possibility, the market may be shrinking. Adding one buyer (themselves) does the Vikings well in terms of his overall value and potential return.
Minnesota shopped Adrian Peterson at 2014's NFL combine, per Mike Freeman here at the Bleacher Report, so it would be unusual to think that they are irretrievably committed to Peterson after he gave them additional reasons not to be one year later.
That isn't to say they wanted to get rid of Peterson so much as they aren't dead set on any individual player, save for the quarterback position. Robinson indicated that general manager Rick Spielman's "feet are in cement" on the Peterson issue, which would be a turnaround from a more secure, younger version of him from a year ago, if Freeman's reports are to be believed.
If so—and there's no guarantee that this speculation is close to correct—then an ideal partner could be the Arizona Cardinals, who may balk at a first-round pick in isolation but could eventually give one up with late-round compensation coming back at them on Day 3 of the draft.
Trade Up from the 2nd Round into the 1st Round
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This doesn't really need to be rehashed, but any teams looking to trade back into the second round will likely find a willing partner in the Minnesota Vikings, who love grabbing falling talent—which one could have easily classified Teddy Bridgewater, Cordarrelle Patterson and Harrison Smith as—and the fifth-year option provided by a first-round pick.
It's no guarantee of course; a trade requires two willing partners in order to happen. Should teams at the bottom of the first round love the crop of linebackers and cornerbacks expected to be selected there, the Vikings may not be able to get that coveted pick in the late 20s.
On the other hand, a relatively flat class that has trouble distinguishing talent may encourage thrifty GMs to trade down and grab another pick. Past partners like the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots have a history of this kind of trading, and it just so happens that both are in a great spot for that kind of move.
Having picked twice at 29 since 2012, the Vikings could also potentially trade with the Indianapolis Colts, who own that spot.
It could take a lot of resources to trade. Given the Vikings' predilection against trading future picks, they may end up having to part ways with a third-round pick in addition to the second-round pick they are swapping in order to secure their late-Day 1 target.
Minnesota could do this to target another defensive back like they did with Harrison Smith or a linebacker. Don't be surprised to see Byron Jones, Marcus Peters, Kevin Johnson or a potentially falling Trae Waynes as the target of such a trade, if Stephone Anthony and Eric Kendricks don't entice the Vikings enough.
Trade Down from Pick 11
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Spielman has stated previously that one of the goals going into every draft is to obtain 10 draft picks. Though trading Adrian Peterson can help accomplish that goal, the easier and more palatable option may be trading down from No. 11.
The Vikings under Spielman twice traded down one spot in the draft, both times with the Cleveland Browns. Dropping from No. 3 to No. 4 netted the Vikings a fourth-, fifth- and seventh-round pick in 2012, and in 2014 allowed them to grab an additional fifth-round pick.
They're in a spot to do so again, this time at No. 11. That could result in an extra sixth- and seventh-round pick, or it could lead to a trade with a different partner willing to give up some more assets for a further trade up, like Miami at 14 (say, for DeVante Parker) or San Francisco one pick later (potentially for Trae Waynes, who could be a better system fit there).
Either way, the Vikings could get the player they wanted all along while still netting a few additional mid-round picks in the process—trading with San Francisco should be worth a third-round pick, for example.
If the Vikings want two first-round picks as well as 10 picks in the draft, they'll have to move around a lot.
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Trade Down out of the 2nd Round
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If the Vikings choose not to trade up into the first-round pick, they may still decline to pick in the second round. The Vikings haven't made a selection in the second round for three years running.
While that's likely the result of successful trades up more than an aversion to the second-round in general, it's not unreasonable to think that Spielman may be able to get the extra draft selections he requires in order to meet his 10-pick goal.
In the past three years, the Vikings have picked 12 times in the last two rounds and eight times in the seventh round. Multiple late- and mid-round selections characterize Minnesota's approach to the draft.
The Vikings loathe offensive skill players in later rounds, having picked none in the past three years. Instead, they can beef up their receiver—and if need be, running back—groups with multiple selections in those middle rounds.
If the offensive line market thins out at tackle too early for some teams, an enterprising GM, like David Caldwell from Jacksonville, could choose to trade up from the third round into the second to grab the last of a run of linemen before the talent drops off a cliff, giving the Vikings some late-round compensation in the process.
Late-Round Madness
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Draft capital isn't efficiently distributed to meet the needs of a team.
Every team has a different need profile, and every draft has a different landscape of talent for each position. In a class stacked with third-tier linebackers, for example, a high first-round pick wouldn't do a great job for a team that sees that position as its primary need.
That basic truth is probably a reason why Spielman sees the need to trade so often in the late rounds. Last year, five picks were either traded by the Vikings or acquired by them in the final three rounds.
The year before, six picks were either traded by or acquired by Minnesota—including one pick traded to itself after going through two other teams along the way. Pick 229 was given to New England in the Cordarrelle Patterson trade, which was sent to Tampa Bay for LeGarrette Blount. The Buccaneers traded that pick back to the Vikings when Tampa Bay wanted to move up into the sixth round.
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