San Francisco 49ers Mock Draft Roundup
The draft is on Thursday, yet there is no consensus as to which player the San Francisco 49ers will draft in Round 1.
Many experts expect the Niners to take former Oregon defensive lineman Arik Armstead. He probably is the most popular 49ers pick among draft experts. Four of six experts on NFL.com currently are predicting this selection, as are Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay of ESPN.com.
But only one of four draft experts from CBSSports.com (Pete Prisco) thinks Armstead will be a Niner. Two of the other experts think the Niners will take a cornerback. The fourth expert believes they will take an outside linebacker.
To help you keep these predictions straight, here is a roundup of five mock drafts. Each one projects a different first-round pick for the 49ers.
Rob Rang: Byron Jones, CB, UConn
1 of 5
Rob Rang of CBSSports.com says the 49ers will draft former UConn cornerback Byron Jones in Round 1.
Rang explains: “General manager Trent Baalke has been known to gamble on traits before, and few athletes check off more boxes than Jones, a four-year starter with experience at corner and safety who is known for his work ethic and demonstrated remarkable athleticism in workouts.”
Rang is correct; Baalke seems to value athletic traits over college production—which means Baalke probably ranks Jones over former Washington cornerback Marcus Peters, who intercepted 11 passes in college but ran just an ordinary 4.53-second 40-yard dash at the combine.
Jones is 6’1”, 199 pounds and runs a 4.43—he is one of the most athletic corners available this year. In college, he played cornerback and safety, and Baalke loves cornerbacks who played some safety in college. Jimmie Ward, Dontae Johnson and Chris Culliver all played safety before Baalke drafted them to play cornerback.
Jones has everything Baalke looks for in a cornerback, but Jones has an injury red flag. He played only seven games last season because he separated his shoulder in October. The injury required surgery.
Baalke shouldn’t spend the Niners first-round pick on an injury risk. A better pick at the position would be former LSU cornerback Jalen Collins in Round 2. He doesn’t have a surgically repaired shoulder, and he’s almost as athletic as Jones is.
Dane Brugler: Shane Ray, OLB/DE, Missouri
2 of 5
Dane Brugler of CBSSports.com believes the 49ers will draft former Missouri edge-rusher Shane Ray in Round 1.
Brugler explains: “Ray is the toughest player to project because of his foot injury. He likely won't need surgery, but the durability concerns could hurt his stock slightly, allowing the 49ers to get excellent value.”
Aldon Smith played at Missouri and never had more than 11.5 sacks in a season. Ray had 14.5 sacks at Missouri last season. He is one of the best edge-rushers in the draft.
But he has an injured foot. Brugler says it probably won’t need surgery now, but what are the odds Ray might re-injure it sometime during the season?
Last year, the 49ers drafted safety Jimmie Ward in Round 1 even though he had a foot problem. He broke it again midway through the season and missed the final seven games.
Do the Niners really want to gamble another first-round pick on a player with a bad foot? I doubt it.
If the Niners are looking for an edge-rusher in Round 1, they should take former Nebraska Cornhusker Randy Gregory. He’s healthy and a better athlete than Ray is.
Daniel Jeremiah: Arik Armstead, DE/DT, Oregon
3 of 5
Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com says the 49ers will draft Arik Armstead in Round 1.
Jeremiah explains, “Armstead can dominate versus the run and has some upside as a pass-rusher.”
Armstead certainly can dominate against the run. But teams typically don’t draft run defenders in Round 1. It’s a passing league.
For the Niners to take Armstead in Round 1, he would have to possess significant “upside” as a pass-rusher. In 39 games at Oregon, he made just four sacks and 10 tackles for loss.
To be a good pass-rusher, a player has to get into the backfield. Armstead rarely gets there, as his statistics indicate. I’d be shocked if the Niners pick him.
A better pick in Round 1 would be former Texas defensive tackle Malcom Brown, who made 27 tackles for loss the past two seasons.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Will Brinson: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
4 of 5
Will Brinson of CBSSports.com says the 49ers will draft former Michigan State cornerback Trae Waynes in Round 1.
Brinson explains: “The 49ers defense is in need of a semi-overhaul at this point, but the secondary is a major concern outside of Eric Reid. Waynes gives San Francisco a big-body, press-man corner with excellent ball skills.”
If Waynes falls to pick No. 15, what a stroke of luck for the Niners. He probably is the best cornerback in the draft and one of the 10 best players overall. He would be an instant upgrade over Chris Culliver, who signed with the Washington Redskins this offseason.
Waynes is a big corner (6’0”) who excels in press man coverage, like Seattle Seahawks star cornerback Richard Sherman. But Waynes is faster than Sherman. Sherman ran a 4.53-second 40-yard dash; Waynes ran a 4.31.
That’s why Waynes probably won’t be available at pick No. 15. Almost every team wants a press corner who runs a 4.3. He probably won’t make it past the Minnesota Vikings at pick No. 11.
Brian Baldinger: Brandon Scherff, OG, Iowa
5 of 5
Brian Baldinger of NFL.com says the 49ers will draft former Iowa offensive lineman Brandon Scherff in Round 1.
Baldinger explains: “Out goes Mike Iupati, in comes Scherff at left guard. There’s a new regime in 49ers land, but the style of football Jim Harbaugh started won’t change much.”
The Niners drafted Iupati with the 17th pick in 2010. They drafted him over Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant.
Iupati turned out to be a good player, but he no longer is with the Niners and is nowhere near as good as Bryant. In retrospect, it was a mistake to spend the 17th pick on a guard, even one as good as Iupati.
Likewise, it would be a mistake to spend the 15th pick on a guard, even one as good as Scherff. Most experts consider him the best guard in the draft, but he is just a guard. He cannot play in space or play tackle.
The Niners rarely re-sign the guards they draft. Instead, they simply draft more guards. Guards are much cheaper in the draft than in free agency.
If the Niners draft Scherff, chances are they will not re-sign him when his rookie contract expires, which means he probably would be a four-year rental.
Under no circumstances should the Niners spend the 15th pick on a four-year rental. They should use that pick on someone who has a future with the team.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
