Which New College Football Coaches Will Lead to Biggest Turnarounds in 2015?
How was Kevin Sumlin so successful during his first season at Texas A&M?
He took a 7-6 team and somehow transformed it—in its SEC debut—into an 11-2 product, a run that included a No. 5 finish in the final AP poll.
Though you could credit some of his success to his choice at quarterback, Johnny Manziel, the real reason goes deeper.
Sumlin took over an Aggies program that was slowly moving in the right direction. Just a year earlier in 2010, A&M finished 9-4, only the second time since 1998 it had registered more than eight wins.
What really indicated better things to come was recruiting. Rivals.com had the Aggies class of 2007, the final year of the Dennis Franchione era, at a program-low No. 43. The number climbed to No. 16 in 2008 when Mike Sherman took over and stayed in the top 25 until Sumlin came into the picture.
Add in 13 returning starters in Sumlin’s first campaign, and suddenly the 11-2 finish seems almost predictable.
Here’s a look at seven new head coaches in 2015 who are walking into favorable situations. In coaching, as in life, timing is everything.
Tom Herman, Houston
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Tom Herman takes over a Houston program that has gone 16-10 since 2013, which means a true “turnaround” isn’t necessarily on his bucket list.
That said, the Cougars hit double-digit wins three times from 2006 to 2011. This equals a program with tons of potential and a fanbase that expects more than bowl eligibility.
Houston returns 13 starters from its 8-5 product in 2014. What’s significant are seven starters back on a defense that finished last season ranked No. 15 in the FBS in scoring.
What the Cougars need help with is scoring points, where they slipped to a No. 60 rank last year. It was the worst mark since the 2004 team finished at No. 97.
Luckily, Herman’s area of expertise is offense, as he most recently served as Urban Meyer’s offensive coordinator at Ohio State (2012-14). Before that, he had the same role at Texas State (2005-06), Rice (2007-08) and Iowa State (2009-11).
His last two Buckeye offenses finished ranked in the top five in scoring, averaging 44-plus points per game.
Jim Harbaugh, Michigan
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Though there has been a lot of press about what Jim Harbaugh could do at Michigan, it’s crucial to understand how good of a situation he’s walking into in Ann Arbor.
Yes, the Wolverines did fall to 5-7 in 2014, and yes, they did finish the season ranked No. 111 in scoring offense.
That said, Michigan will field the most experienced team in the Big Ten in 2015. It brings back nine on offense and seven to a defense that finished No. 27 in scoring, No. 15 versus the run and No. 19 against the pass.
From a recruiting standpoint, the Wolverines did slip to a No. 50-ranked class in 2015, according to Rivals.com. But, and this is a big but, they did sign the No. 7 and No. 5-ranked classes in 2012 and 2013. That’s technically this year’s seniors and juniors.
The bottom line is a bunch of talented guys returning to a great defense and an offense that needs a lot of help. Add in a coach who has had big-time success in big-time college football and you have huge potential.
If you want one more intriguing factor, consider Michigan’s awful No. 124 rank in turnover margin last season. Only Washington State, Eastern Michigan and Georgia State finished lower.
It just so happens that the last time Harbaugh coached an FBS team, in 2010 at Stanford, it finished ranked No. 7 in turnover margin. That’s the Cardinal at plus-13 versus the Wolverines at minus-16.
And it’s a 12-1 finish versus a 5-7 campaign.
Neal Brown, Troy
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Neal Brown takes over for the legendary Larry Blakeney at Troy, after he spent two seasons as the offensive coordinator at Kentucky.
Before that, Brown was also the OC at Texas Tech (2010-12) and Troy (2008-09).
Each of his five offenses at Tech and Troy finished ranked in the top 25 in the FBS in scoring. While this wasn’t the case at Kentucky, he did take a unit that ranked No. 108 in 2013 all the way to No. 62 in 2014.
Brown makes his head coaching debut with a Troy program that slipped to 3-9 last season. What bodes well for both him and the Trojans is the return of 13 starters, seven on offense and six on defense.
Included in that number are sophomore quarterback Brandon Silvers, who completed a whopping 70.5 percent of his passes last season (No. 2 in the FBS), three of the top five receivers and three members of a secondary that finished No. 36 versus the pass.
Troy hasn’t finished a season over the .500 mark since going 8-5 in 2010. That said, remember that this is the same program that won five consecutive Sun Belt crowns from 2006 to 2010.
Brown and his Trojans may not win 10 games in 2015, but they’ll likely be a contender for the postseason. What will cost Troy at least a couple of wins is a schedule that includes games at North Carolina State, Wisconsin and Mississippi State.
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Pat Narduzzi, Pitt
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Pitt went 6-7 last season, a finish that included its seventh consecutive bowl appearance—a loss to Houston in the Armed Forces Bowl.
While the Panthers haven't suffered the kind of woes of an SMU or Kansas, they have only hit double digits once (in 2009) since putting together their 33-3 run from 1979 to 1981.
This sets the stage for defensive mastermind Pat Narduzzi, fresh off an eight-year run as the defensive coordinator at Michigan State.
Narduzzi takes over a Pitt team with 15 starters back, most significantly six to a defense that finished No. 57 versus the run and No. 25 against the pass last season.
Remember, this is the same guy who took over as the DC at Miami (Ohio) in 2003 and transformed a RedHawks defense that ranked No. 66 in scoring the year before to a No. 22 rank.
After that, he became DC at Cincinnati, taking a Bearcats defense that ranked No. 70 in scoring to a No. 36 rank by the time he left for Michigan State in 2007.
While it’s no surprise that either Florida State or Clemson has won the last four consecutive ACC titles, did you know that one of the two has also led the conference in scoring defense each of the last five years?
If Narduzzi can do at Pitt what he did at Miami (Ohio), Cincinnati and Michigan State, the Panthers are set to be in the conference championship mix.
Chad Morris, SMU
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No coach on this list walks into a tougher situation than Chad Morris does. He takes over for an SMU team that won a single game last season and finished dead last in scoring offense (No. 128) and No. 126 in scoring defense.
That means that no FBS team scored fewer points per game than did the Mustangs (11.1), and only one—Georgia State at 43.3—gave up more points (41.3).
All the woeful tidings aside, this is a team that was bowl eligible as recently as 2012, the fourth of four consecutive winning seasons that kicked off back in 2009.
While the vital signs at SMU might not be strong, the patient still has a good chance of making a full recovery.
Add in 15 returning starters, including the entire offensive line and four guys from the defensive front seven and suddenly, things look, well, OK.
This is Morris’ opportunity to prove he can morph from a successful offensive coordinator into a head coach. Remember, he took a Tulsa offense that finished 2009 at No. 43 in scoring to a No. 6 rank in 2010.
From there, he took Clemson’s offense, which ranked No. 86 in scoring in 2010 to a No. 23 rank in 2011, a No. 6 mark in 2012 and a No. 8 rank in 2013.
SMU won’t likely win the American Athletic in 2015, but it will win more than one game. Like Troy, the Mustangs schedule will hamper a complete comeback. Early games include a home match with Baylor and a road trip across town to TCU.
Philip Montgomery, Tulsa
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Perhaps the most exciting alignment of the stars between new coach and team in 2015 is Philip Montgomery and Tulsa.
Montgomery comes to the Golden Hurricane fresh off leading the No. 1 scoring offense in the nation the last two seasons. Yes, he’s the guy who spent the last decade coaching in Art Briles’ system, most recently as his offensive coordinator at Baylor, a job he took over in 2012.
In 2015, the young offensive guru will be paired with an offense that returns 10 starters from last season. It’s a unit that is hiding covertly behind its No. 94 finish in scoring and its 2-10 record.
Peeling back a couple of layers, we find a No. 37 finish in passing yards, a quarterback who quietly finished No. 26 in the FBS in yards per game (Dane Evans with 258.5) and a receiver who finished No. 11 (Keevan Lucas with 101.6).
Tulsa is another program that knows it can do better, posting double-digit win seasons four out of six times from 2007 to 12.
It’s the perfect formula for what may be billed as a surprise explosion.
Jim McElwain, Florida
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Jim McElwain takes over a Florida program that despite facilities, funds and talent has only hit double-digit wins once in the last five years.
Compare that to a school with fewer resources like South Carolina, also in the SEC East, which has clocked three 11-win seasons since 2011.
In 2015, McElwain and his staff won’t field the most experienced team in the conference (with only 10 returning starters, Florida ranks No. 13 among the 14 SEC teams), but it will have one of the most talent-rich.
If not for a drop to what Rivals.com rated as the No. 23-ranked class of 2015, Florida would be second only to Alabama in recruiting rankings since 2012.
Beyond the blessing of top-tier talent, McElwain, like Tom Herman at Houston, is just what the doctor ordered. The Gators finished last year ranked No. 19 in scoring defense versus No. 56 in scoring offense and a dismal No. 106 in passing yards.
This blaring deficiency meshes perfectly with McElwain’s skill set. His resume includes four years as the offensive coordinator under Nick Saban at Alabama (2008-2011) and then three years of offensive greatness during his head coaching debut at Colorado State (2012-2014).
During his last stop, he took a Rams offense that ranked No. 101 in scoring in 2011 all the way to No. 32 in 2014. Even better, he transformed a passing attack that ranked No. 90 in 2011 to No. 8 in 2014.
Florida, we have a launch.
Statistics courtesy of CFBStats. Returning starter data courtesy of Phil Steele. Recruiting rankings courtesy of Rivals.com. Future schedules courtesy of FBSchedules.com.
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