The Pirates Need To Win More on the Road To Be a Winning Team

The Pirates got off to a good start in 2009, going 3-3 or .500 on the road, against division rivals, in the first two series. This, unfortunately, represented a "high water mark" for success in away games against the National League Central so far this year.

The Buccos then compiled a winning record at home. At the end of April, they were at 12-11, just over .500 in total. It was beginning to look like this might be Pittsburgh's year.

But Pittsburgh's road record is now the worst in the majors, including the Washington Nationals. Since the first week, the Pirates have won only 15 games on the road.

And of these, 12 were outside the division, meaning that Pittsburgh has won only three games outside of PNC park against division rivals, since early April (six for the season as a whole).

Most teams don't play as well on the road as at home, although some do. Two of those teams are the Cincinnati Reds and the Milwaukee Brewers.

That's why they are ahead of the Pirates in the standings, even though their home records (as well as that of the Houston Astros) are inferior to Pittsburgh's.

But the Bucs are 6-16 on the road against the National League Central, and have a slightly better record of 12-27 against non-division teams on the road. They are 13-16 at home against division rivals but have a strong 22-13 home record against non-division outfits.

Small wonder that the coming road trip, against Cincinnati and Milwaukee, is shaping up as a major test. The Pirates HAVE to win more of these types of games if they are to amount to anything in the division.

The "new" Pirates have just shown what they can do at home.Their recent 7-2 homestand included a 5-1 showing against two teams in the National League Central (as well as a 2-1 series against the defending world series champion Phillies).

That's a tremendous improvement that belies their 8-15 start at home against division rivals. Against such teams, they're still not at .500 even at home, but the remaining home series could put them there.

The Pirates take to the road with one of the hottest streaks in the National League, 7-3 in their last ten games. The three other teams with comparable records over the same period are the St. Louis Cardinals, the Philadelphia Phillies, and the Colorado Rockies, all contenders.

Given the low base, the six game road trip represents a tremendous opportunity for improvement. A 3-3 record on the road would represent a splendid result, and lay a foundation for 2010.

If the Pirates were .500 all season against division rivals outside of PNC park, they would have won five more such games so far, than they actually have. If you also assume a five-game swing against division rivals at home, and a five game swing against non-division rivals on the road, that would mean a total swing of 15 games. (We're fine with the Pirates' home record against non-division teams.)

That would put them at 68-57. This hypothetical correlates well with the actual  percentage of .547 derived from their home record, 35-29. Either would put the Pirates in second place in the National League Central, and in contention for the wild card.

Their best chance is tonight, with Zach Duke, arguably the Pirates' best starter, against Manny Parra, the Brewers' worst. They might also have a good match up on Sunday, with a newly "hot" Ross Ohlendorf against an aging former Pirate, Jeff Suppan. The toughest game will be on Saturday, when Keven Hart starts against Manny Gallardo.

It's probably too late to save the season in 2009. It's not too late to think about 2010, and beyond.