Unexpected Early-Season MLB Themes That Have Staying Power
Small sample sizes are typically good for only one thing: creating a base for a poor argument.
On rare occasions, however, we can take a relatively minuscule sample size and extract something meaningful. Based on track record, projections and the first few weeks of this season, those samples can become forecasts for the rest of the summer.
Then you have the trends—statistical, attitude, good, bad and dramatic—that were completely unexpected, ones no one saw developing. We will focus on those themes, which have already gotten national play as early-season surprises.
As May approaches, the small samples we have to go on give us just enough to play prognosticator for the rest of the season, as these are the unexpected themes with staying power.
The Im-maturing of Yordano Ventura
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Thursday night’s conflict between Yordano Ventura, the Kansas City Royals’ No. 1 starter, and White Sox center fielder Adam Eaton came with blame on both sides, depending on who you listened to or read or how you watched their skirmish.
Whether you believe Eaton barked first or Ventura’s immediate charge forward upon snaring the ball caused Eaton’s reaction, what cannot be ignored is this is the third consecutive start that Ventura has been a centerpiece of a benches-clearing incident. And that is not good. For the Royals. For the game. For Ventura.
Last season, Ventura became one of the best young pitchers in the majors, going 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA and 125 ERA-plus in his age-22/23 season. This season, he was expected to lead the rotation a year after the club won the American League pennant.
That was how people around the game and outside of it saw Ventura. He was a budding front-line starter on a blossoming team.
But in three starts over the course of 12 days, that narrative has changed. Now he is an instigator, someone getting a little too big for his britches and who could eventually cost his team games because of it.
We are already seeing this possibly happening as Ventura, Edinson Volquez, Lorenzo Cain and Kelvin Herrera have all been suspended because of the fight with the White Sox. Beyond that, this could cost the team in injuries, since Cain, arguably the team’s best player, was in the middle—and bottom—of the fracas with the White Sox.
Ventura’s actions, whether you blame him or not, have at the very least come with a complete lack of self-control. Maybe he started it; maybe he didn’t. But he certainly helped dump the fuel and throw the match. That is something the Royals have to control.
A positive step was Ventura showing a semblance of regret after the White Sox incident.
“He recognizes that some of his actions are putting him in a less than favorable light, as well as the team, which is very important to him,” teammate/interpreter Jeremy Guthrie said about Ventura to reporters. “So he wants to work on it, and be better. It's something he needs to work on.”
If Ventura, who maybe got a talking to from some teammates after his latest antics, is serious about changing the perception he has earned, it needs to start immediately. Otherwise, this could derail the Royals’ charge to another postseason berth.
A-Rod’s Above-Average Contribution
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Expectations were rightfully low, and failure was pretty much the rooted-for outcome when it came to Alex Rodriguez in 2015. But this is still A-Rod, one of the game’s all-time best hitters. And he started the season presumably healthy.
So far, he is one of the New York Yankees’ biggest offensive contributors. He started Saturday with a .424 OBP, 10th in the American League and the best on the club. His .982 OPS was also 10th in the AL, and his 175 OPS-plus was ninth, ahead of Miguel Cabrera. His 14 walks also led the league.
Before the season, the Yankees figured any offense they got from Rodriguez could be considered a bonus, and the club didn’t even think he could be an everyday part of the lineup. But three weeks into the season, A-Rod has played in nearly every game and hit in the No. 3 spot in the order Saturday. At this point, he is anything but an expendable part of the Yankees lineup.
“He's done everything we've asked,” manager Joe Girardi told reporters in Detroit last week. “He's gotten on base, he's taken his walks, he's driven in runs—he's basically done what you want a DH to do in the middle of the order.”
Rodriguez still has a wonderful understanding of the strike zone and great pitch recognition. Those things typically do not go into slumps. And as for the fastballs that were supposed to give Rodriguez so much trouble this season as he approaches age 40, well, he was slugging .742 against them going into Saturday, and all four of his home runs have come against hard stuff, according to Brooks Baseball.
Those are the biggest reasons to believe a healthy Rodriguez can continue to be an offensive force for the Yankees all season.
Dodgers Offense Not Missing Matt Kemp or Hanley Ramirez
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Critics of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ offseason remodel screamed about offense and where it might come from with the loss of Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez.
The Dodgers have silenced that noise to this point in the season. Entering Saturday’s games, they led the National League with 21 home runs, a .471 slugging percentage and an .822 OPS. They were also second in the league with 39 doubles.
Then they put up 11 more runs on four more home runs and four more doubles Saturday against the San Diego Padres.
Part of the team’s offseason rebuild was to make the team deeper and more capable of absorbing injuries or slumps. And while there did not seem to be a 40-homer kind of player in the lineup, there figured to be more power up and down it than there had been in recent seasons.
“You just make it up incrementally,” Dodgers pitcher Brandon McCarthy said last weekend after the team went 6-0 against the Seattle Mariners and Colorado Rockies. “You still have a guy like Scott Van Slyke on the bench, Andre Ethier. There's power throughout the lineup, whether or not it's guys hitting 30 or 40, you have a whole bunch of guys hitting 10-15, and you can make up that gap.”
Even if Adrian Gonzalez or Yasiel Puig is scuffling at the plate, the Dodgers now have enough firepower around them to make up for it. That is why the offensive output is capable of lasting the entire regular season, and then some.
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Reversed Roles of the Mariners
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For so many recent seasons, the Seattle Mariners lost games they could have won if they had an improved offense. Now they have it, but they are still losing those same games because their starting pitching, which was the club’s biggest strength in the past, has regressed.
The Mariners’ rotation had a 5.05 ERA going into Saturday, 12th out of 15 American League groups. That number is greatly helped by ace Felix Hernandez, who is 3-0 with a 1.61 ERA after Friday night’s complete-game, nine-strikeout, no-walk shutout against the Minnesota Twins.
Without King Felix’s numbers mixed into the rotation, J.A. Happ, Hisashi Iwakuma, James Paxton and Taijuan Walker have combined for an 11.14 ERA over 64.2 innings. That total also includes Happ’s 2.61 ERA over 20.2 innings.
So, mostly, it’s been Iwakuma (6.61 ERA), who is now on the disabled list, Paxton (8.40) and Walker (10.66) who have been disastrous for the Mariners.
“Obviously, when you don't pitch well, that's a reason to be concerned,” manager Lloyd McClendon told reporters Monday after a 7-5 loss to the Houston Astros. “I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned about it. We've got to get it straightened out, because we're much better than we've shown to this point. When you score five runs in a game, you should win a ballgame.”
It is possible that Paxton and Walker can rebound, but maybe not to the point where they are dominant front-line pitchers. Not this season, at least. It is also possible that Iwakuma never again lives up to the All-Star 2013 season that put him on the map, and that Happ reverts back to the pitcher who posted a 4.75 ERA over the last four years.
If that happens, the Mariners might have the offense, but their pitching will be an unexpected letdown.
Lasting Effects of Angels’ Handling of Josh Hamilton Saga
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The Los Angeles Angels botched the Josh Hamilton situation in just about every way possible.
They rooted for his suspension for his self-reported relapse during the offseason. They were furious when he wasn’t disciplined because it meant they would have to pay him his full salary for the season. They basically blamed him for his addiction in statements made after MLB announced he would not be suspended.
That caused Los Angeles Times columnist Bill Plaschke to opine that Hamilton’s “new demons are Angels.”
The end result of all of this seems to be a trade to the Texas Rangers, Hamilton’s previous team before the Angels signed him to a five-year, $125 million contract prior to the 2013 season.
While not every player has the problems of Hamilton, they certainly paid at least mild attention to how the Angels handled him through all of this. And the team did not come off well—quite the opposite.
Before the Angels recently spent big on Albert Pujols, C.J. Wilson and Hamilton in free agency, they were seen as a team other free agents stood up time after time. Other players who are seeking a new place to play, now that they have seen how the Angels handled Hamilton, might again pass on signing with the organization. Not only that, but it will be ammunition for other teams to use against the Angels when they are competing for the same players.
This Hamilton saga might be nearing a resolution, but the long-term effects could adversely impact the Angels for years.
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