Crucial Game 3 May Determine Portland Trail Blazers' Future
The Portland Trail Blazers desperately need to show a playoff pulse.
It's not about saving this season; this hasn't been a campaign worth preserving since Wesley Matthews tore his Achilles in early March. This is about protecting the years that lie ahead and convincing Portland's horde of impending free agents that Rip City is still the right home for their talents.
The battered and bruised Blazers failed in their two playoff cracks so far at a Memphis Grizzlies team that also took all four of their regular-season meetings. Only now the gap between these two teams is growing even more. Memphis has barely broken a sweat during its two double-digit victories, holding Portland below 40 percent shooting from the field and 31 percent from three.
"They took care of business at home," Portland forward LaMarcus Aldridge said, per Joe Freeman of The Oregonian.
Maybe Aldridge is pining for the Understatement of the Postseason award.
The Grizzlies have done something far more powerful than taking care of business. They look like they've taken away the Blazers' spirit.
"This team feels done," wrote The Oregonian's John Canzano. "It's out of sync offensively. It's splintered defensively. It's barely a team anymore."
It's a team that could undergo some radical roster changes over the summer. Aldridge is slated for unrestricted free agency at season's end, and several of Portland's key players will—or at least can—join him on the open market.
| LaMarcus Aldridge | Unrestricted | 23.4 PTS, 10.2 REB, 1.0 BLK, 22.8 PER |
| Robin Lopez | Unrestricted | 9.6 PTS, 6.7 REB, 1.4 BLK, 16.2 PER |
| Wesley Matthews | Unrestricted | 15.9 PTS, 1.3 STL, 38.9 3P%, 16.1 PER |
| Arron Afflalo | Player Option | 10.6 PTS, 40.0 3P%, 8.2 PER |
| Chris Kaman | Partial Guarantee | 8.6 PTS, 6.5 REB, 17.3 PER |
| Steve Blake | Player Option | 4.3 PTS, 3.6 AST, 9.5 PER |
Aldridge is clearly the Blazers' top priority.
If he isn't the best power forward in the NBA, the players ahead of him can be counted on one hand. He's been an All-Star in each of the last four seasons. He's the league's only player to average at least 23 points and 10 rebounds both this year and last.
Portland obviously wants to keep him. It doesn't have another offensive weapon as potent as him—All-Star point guard Damian Lillard included.
But Aldridge's list of potential suitors is as long as his stat sheet says it should be. The Texas native is on the radar of least two teams from the Lone Star State, along with a few big spenders from major markets, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein:
But the Blazers still look like the clubhouse leader for Aldridge.
It's the only NBA home he's known and the place he's built a decorated—but complicated—legacy. He's been a constant source of production, but he's had to share the spotlight at times with Brandon Roy, Greg Oden and now Lillard.
In 2013, there were reports that Aldridge wanted out of Portland, per Jason Quick of The Oregonian. But those whispers were mostly silenced by the Blazers' 54-win sprint to last year's playoffs.
After that run, Aldridge laid out his long-term plan of staying in the Pacific Northwest, telling Freeman, "I want to be the best Blazer—ever. If I stay the rest of my career, I should be able to catch Clyde [Drexler] by then."
Aldridge's decision to delay surgery on a torn ligament in his thumb during a contract year seemed to only strengthen that commitment.
But not everyone sees the 6'11" forward's foray into free agency as a mere formality.
"I think LaMarcus Aldridge is actually a lot more in play than people think," ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne said during an appearance on 710 ESPN's Mason and Ireland Show (via Lakers Nation's Ryan Ward). "You have that group there. How can you really improve that group up in Portland?"
Even those closer to Aldridge aren't convinced he's a lock to stick around.
"Some Blazers players have already said they are worried free agency will take Aldridge away from Portland this summer," Quick wrote after the Blazers' Game 1 loss to Memphis. "Earlier this month, before a home game, a Blazers player estimated the chances of him returning to Portland at 50-50."
No one seems to know which direction Aldridge is leaning. And that means the Blazers still have some convincing to do, starting with avoiding the historical straitjacket that is an 0-3 series deficit.
When these teams return to battle for Game 3 on Saturday (10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN), Portland must find a way to spark its stagnant offense and plug its leaky defense.
Aldridge has spent this series on an island.
He's averaged 12 more points per game than the team's next-best scorer (28 to Lillard's 16), with six more boards than its second-best rebounder (14 to Meyers Leonard's eight). Lillard's All-Star stock has plummeted, as he's connected on just 10-of-37 shots overall (1-of-11 from three) and tossed out only four assists in 79 minutes.
"Me being the other All-Star-level player on the team, I want to put my best foot forward and do what I can to make sure my team is still playing," Lillard said, per Freeman. "And when things don't work out that way, it's really frustrating."
If it's frustrating for Lillard, it's downright terrifying for Aldridge. Seeing Lillard struggle offensively—and fight defensive deficiencies throughout his career—threatens what little stability exists amid Portland's cloud of uncertainty.
Robin Lopez might bolt in free agency, taking his glue-guy skills with him. Arron Afflalo is another candidate to exit, which would put Portland's much-maligned bench back under the spotlight of scrutiny. Matthews might not return, either, and even if he does, it's hard to say how effective he'll be after the Achilles injury. The buzz created by sophomore C.J. McCollum's late-season surge has evaporated after back-to-back brutal outings.
Aldridge needs to see more from the rest of this roster.
Lillard and McCollum have to find some efficiency. Nicolas Batum needs to take on a more prominent scoring role. This defense has to show signs of competence, because it's impossible to overwhelm Memphis with offense alone.
Portland has to prove it hasn't already peaked.
Aldridge won't want to spend the rest of his prime on a good team that has no chance of being great. With proven playoff commodities like the San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks hovering like vultures, the Blazers need a strong showing to keep Aldridge's suitors at bay by hinting at a future that includes championship contention.
"Aldridge will turn 30 this summer, which means his upcoming free agency will likely be the last one in which he'll command max-level cash as an elite player in his prime," wrote Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes. "If he wants to spend the tail end of his best years playing for a team with a higher ceiling, it would be hard to blame him."
Injuries had a major impact on derailing Portland's run, but this team doesn't have the luxury of waiting for everyone to get healthy.
Everyone might not be around when this club kicks off training camp in the fall.
Watching Aldridge walk for nothing in return would be a brutal blow to the franchise. Lillard regressing when so much progress needs to be made could be equally deflating. Alarms might even sound if some of the supporting cast departs, given this roster's lack of reliable depth.
Losing this series—especially by a decisive margin—could have devastating effects.
"It's very possible that we're witnessing the end of an era of Blazers basketball," Canzano wrote.
It might sound a bit dramatic, but the stakes are that high. Questions will be answered soon, either securing Portland's status as a contender for the foreseeable future or dropping it from the championship race entirely.
The plug was pulled on this playoff trip a while ago. But the Blazers must breathe some life into those postseason journeys that are still yet to come.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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