5 NBA Restricted Free Agents Likely to Change Teams During 2015 Offseason
Restricted free agency is the NBA's greatest oxymoron.
Players hit the market with what may seem like all the liberty in the world, but both they and the team they most recently played for know that freedom is really just an illusion.
See, restricted free agents can sign offer sheets with any team they choose. But their former employers can retain the right of first refusal by extending a qualifying offer, which means those players can only change teams if their current club doesn't match that offer sheet.
New Orleans Pelicans guard Eric Gordon provides the best recent illustration of the false freedom restricted free agency creates. In 2012, he signed an offer sheet with the Phoenix Suns and explicitly told the Pelicans not to match it.
The Pellies matched anyway, and Gordon had to stay put.
It's a weird little bubble to be in. To change teams, a restricted free agent has to have enough talent and value to appeal to interested clubs. But that talent and value can't be so great as to make it a no-brainer for his current team to retain him.
Lots of factors come into play: team finances, other internal options at the same position, attitude and fit, to name a few.
The fact that the impending salary-cap spike makes long-term contracts a smarter play for all teams this summer makes it even less likely we'll see restricted free agents move often.
Chances are, the majority of restricted free agents will stay right where they are.
But some look likelier to move than others.
The Going-Nowhere Primer
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Before delving into the potentially mobile restricted free agents, let's first mention the guys who might as well be glued to their current locations.
Draymond Green, Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler will not be changing addresses.
All three are stars, all three are absolutely vital to the success of their teams and all three will likely receive max offer sheets—offer sheets their current squads will match immediately.
The only possibly complicated situation is Green's. Barring some summertime roster shuffling, maxing him out will bump the Golden State Warriors into the luxury tax. But with Green's value being so profoundly obvious and the rising cap approaching, one season of tax payments won't prohibit ownership from retaining the heartbeat of a contender.
Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News tweeted back in February: "Unless Warriors execs are flat-out misleading me, they are going to match any offer Draymond Green gets. Whatever the number is."
Case closed.
Others unlikely to move:
- Khris Middleton—the Milwaukee Bucks need shooting, and he can shoot.
- Tristan Thompson—he shares an agent with LeBron James. You do the math.
- Brandon Knight—Phoenix shook up its roster, and he was the prize.
Tobias Harris, SF, Orlando Magic
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The Orlando Magic are building...something. It's just hard to know exactly what that something is and who'll be part of it when it's finished.
Tobias Harris is a prime example of an obviously talented player who may not fit into whatever it is that's under construction in Orlando.
"Harris has improved his corner three, but he’s spent a lot of his time at power forward, and his skill set runs a bit counter to the drive-and-kick system Orlando envisions," Grantland's Zach Lowe wrote. "Harris can be a ball stopper, and he doesn’t grind on defense like Payton, Oladipo or Gordon."
Lowe also wrote in January that he suspected a team with max-level cap room, like the New York Knicks, would make a huge offer this summer.
Harris is still just 22, which means he could easily climb a few more rungs on the growth ladder. But he's probably in the way of Aaron Gordon, and any team with Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo in the backcourt desperately needs reliable wing shooters.
There are better fits for him out there, and he may even be worth a big contract for the right team.
The Magic, it seems, just aren't that team.
Enes Kanter, PF/C, Oklahoma City Thunder
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There's going to be a team out there that falls in love with the 18.7 points and 11 rebounds Enes Kanter averaged after joining the Oklahoma City Thunder at the trade deadline. It's inevitable.
And when that team heaves a hefty offer to Kanter, the Thunder will have a decision to make.
Will they also gaze starry-eyed at Kanter's cosmetic numbers and overpay to keep him? Or will they recognize that he gives up more on defense than he gets on offense and marginalizes the value of still-promising (and much cheaper) center Steven Adams?
Consider, too, the long-term ramifications of paying Kanter big bucks. Kevin Durant is a free agent next summer, and preserving cash to pay guys KD wants needs to be a priority. And don't forget Russell Westbrook will need a new contract the year after Durant does.
Look, Kanter is productive in a basic way. He scores efficiently, and he hauls in rebounds. But OKC simply cannot play him without Serge Ibaka on the floor unless it wants to field a horrendous defense. This year, Kanter's on-court defensive rating was 110.4 with the Thunder, per NBA.com, which would have ranked beneath the league-worst Minnesota Timberwolves' 109.6 over the full season.
Not only that, but opponents outscored OKC with Kanter on the floor. He was a net-negative player.
The Thunder proved they could make the necessary, difficult and, ultimately, right decision when they fired head coach Scott Brooks.
Consider this a bet that they'll make another one by letting somebody else pay too much for Kanter's empty numbers.
Reggie Jackson, PG, Detroit Pistons
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The Detroit Pistons dealt for Reggie Jackson at the deadline knowing restricted free agency was on the horizon, so it stands to reason they liked him as more than a short-term addition. And his stat-stuffing play after joining Stan Van Gundy's squad may end up resulting in a matched deal that keeps him in Detroit this summer.
I guess that makes this a plea for the Pistons to think big-picture.
Few clubs know how damaging a lack of shooting can be better than Detroit does. Clogged frontcourt lineups that featured Josh Smith, Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond resulted in atrocious spacing for nearly two years, and a lack of accurate wing snipers remained an issue last season.
For Van Gundy, who previously led highly successful Orlando Magic teams with loads of long-range shooting at every position but center, a lack of perimeter marksmanship would seem to be particularly loathsome.
Which is why Jackson, who ranked 62nd in true-shooting percentage among the 76 players who attempted at least 12 shots per game last year, according to Basketball-Reference.com, may not be a lock to stick in Detroit after all.
The guy can't shoot a lick from deep.
If Jackson is your point guard and Drummond is your center, you have two obvious non-shooters playing huge minutes. Good spacing is still possible, but defenses will always be able to cheat away from Jackson to cover more dangerous outside threats.
For evidence of how crippling a poor-shooting point guard can be to a good offense, look no further than Rajon Rondo's disastrous turn with the Dallas Mavericks. John Wall has made it work in Washington, but only if you consider leading an offense that ranked 19th in the league "making it work."
And the Pistons don't have a Bradley Beal.
Detroit may value Jackson, but it must also see that he's a tricky fit—and perhaps not one worth spending big to retain when cheaper, more well-rounded options will surely be available.
Patrick Beverley, PG, Houston Rockets
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Patrick Beverley does one thing (defend) really well and another (shoot threes) well enough, which makes him an absolute bargain at an annual salary of less than $1 million.
The question the Houston Rockets will face this summer is whether those two things are worth retaining at a substantially higher cost.
Houston has approximately $54 million committed to next year's salaries, which doesn't leave much wiggle room to improve the roster. If another team makes Beverley a decent offer, matching it could prevent the Rockets from keeping one or all of Josh Smith, Jason Terry and Corey Brewer—all of whom have been solid this postseason as Beverley remains sidelined with a wrist injury.
It's not that the Rockets don't want or shouldn't keep Beverley. It's just that he won't be the same terrific bargain going forward.
A club with a similar appreciation of strong backcourt defense and just-good-enough three-point shooting will pay him what he deserves, and it's hard to imagine Houston will commit what it takes to match.
Derrick Williams, SF/PF, Sacramento Kings
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Unlike the players covered to this point, Derrick Williams probably won't be in line for a huge offer this coming summer. But if you're reading the tea leaves, it's difficult to imagine the Sacramento Kings spending even a middling amount to match an offer sheet for the former No. 2 overall pick.
Williams, despite four seasons in the league, is still a player defined by unmet potential.
Not only that, but his qualifying offer will be nearly $9 million, according to Basketball Insiders, which is a price the Kings almost certainly won't pay. And if the Kings don't extend that offer, Williams quickly makes the leap from restricted to unrestricted, which would only increase his chances of leaving.
Though he possesses the athleticism head coach George Karl likes in his forwards, Williams' inability to do fundamental frontcourt things (like rebound) has clearly been a source of frustration.
"You shouldn't be playing 20 minutes a game and not get a rebound. I mean, the Coke machine can get a rebound some nights," Karl told reporters on April 5 after Williams went boardless in 27 minutes against the Utah Jazz, via Blake Ellington of Sactown Royalty. "Sometimes we have guys play 20, 25 minutes and don't get a rebound, and I don't understand that."
I'm guessing the Coke machine will come cheaper than Williams. You can't fault the Kings for being cost-conscious about their rebounds.
