Does LaMarcus Aldridge's Future Ride on Portland Trail Blazers' Playoff Run?
Falling apart physically and looking woefully overmatched in their first-round series against the Memphis Grizzlies, the Portland Trail Blazers may soon face the disappointment of a quick postseason exit.
Worse still, that exit might precipitate another one—that of organizational cornerstone LaMarcus Aldridge.
Per Jason Quick of The Oregonian: "Some Blazers players have already said they are worried free agency will take Aldridge away from Portland this summer. Earlier this month, before a home game, a Blazers player estimated the chances of him returning to Portland at 50-50."
If that angle feels familiar, it's probably because Aldridge's time in Portland has always been marked by concerns he might leave.
ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne said recently that Aldridge was more "in play" as a free agent than most people understood on ESPN LA radio.
Quick reported two years ago that Aldridge was unhappy and wanted out.
Speculation about Aldridge's future isn't new, and this latest instance of uncertainty, cropping up at a time when the Blazers look particularly vulnerable, isn't cause for concern unless you think a guy who's been nothing but loyal, consistent and generally reliable is going to pull a complete 180.
See, Aldridge has been rock solid in stating his desire to remain in Portland.
"I don't want it to be perceived that I'm not happy, or I'm not staying on because I'm not signing a three-year deal,'' Aldridge told The Oregonian's Joe Freeman last July. "It's just financially smarter to wait...and I'm looking forward to signing the five-year deal when the chance comes.''
"I want to be the best Blazer—ever."
That's a strong statement—one that probably won't change unless the conditions in Portland become so altered as to force Aldridge to reconsider.
You could argue that the Blazers' series against Memphis is highlighting exactly those kinds of changes.
Damian Lillard remains the face of the franchise despite his inability to impact the game on defense. When Aldridge pledged his loyalty last year, perhaps he suspected a bigger step forward from his point guard.
Portland's glaring lack of playoff-worthy toughness bothered Aldridge in Game 1. Maybe he thought his teammates had learned enough from last year's playoff foray to prepare them for the physicality of the postseason.
Robin Lopez will be a free agent this summer. Wesley Matthews will too, and nobody can be sure how he'll bounce back from a career-altering Achilles tear.
Ultimately, it's possible Aldridge, in surveying the Portland landscape, no longer sees a future as bright as the one he previously envisioned.
Aldridge will turn 30 this summer, which means his upcoming free agency will likely be the last one in which he'll command max-level cash as an elite player in his prime. If he wants to spend the tail end of his best years playing for a team with a higher ceiling, it would be hard to blame him.
And there are plenty of teams out there who'd jump at the chance to haul in Aldridge.
All three Texas squads could appeal to his Lone Star roots, and the San Antonio Spurs will have the money (and potentially open spot in the middle if Tim Duncan retires) to give Aldridge everything he's ever wanted.
It's too early to guess where Aldridge could land. Suffice it to say he'd fit almost anywhere, and there's not a team in the league that would turn down a conversation if he expressed interest.
At the same time, there's plenty of incentive for Aldridge to stay in Portland—regardless of this postseason's outcome.
For one, he's comfortable there, not to mention beloved.
In addition, the Trail Blazers will have some flexibility this summer. They could bring back Matthews and Lopez, hope for steps forward from C.J. McCollum and Meyers Leonard and pray to the injury gods for mercy in 2015-16.
Or they could renounce Matthews and Lopez, re-up with Aldridge and seek out other reinforcements on the market. It'd be tight, as a new deal for Aldridge would eat up a ton of the Blazers' possible $25 million in cap room. But a few other moves—moving the expiring deal of Nicolas Batum and hoping Arron Afflalo opts out of his final year at $7.75 million—could free up some options.
And in all scenarios, there's the possibility that Lillard gets an offseason wake-up call that turns him into a two-way player.
Let's also not forget that if Aldridge were to leave the Blazers, he'd be sacrificing a fifth year and more money on his new contract. That's a set of incentives we simply haven't seen many stars leave on the table.
It's easy to get swept up in the Blazers' current vulnerability. Seeing them struggle makes a potential Aldridge exit seem more likely. And it's important to note that if Aldridge really does view the circumstances in Portland as being so changed as to force a reconsideration of his stated intention to stay, he's entitled to recalculate his plans.
The thing is, the Trail Blazers aren't in a hopeless situation. They look overmatched in this series, and their roster is uncertain going into the offseason. But there's just as much of a chance that they take a step forward as back.
Couple that fact with the extra money, familiarity and Aldridge's longstanding stated intention to stay, and it's tough to see him going anywhere—regardless of how Portland fares in these playoffs.
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