College Football Teams with Best Shot to Go Undefeated in 2015
Perfect or pretty? In college football scheduling, this debate rages on and will continue to be a topic as long as strength-of-schedule is a factor in determining who makes the playoffs.
An unbeaten record seems like the safest way to earn a semifinal bid, but only Florida State managed to make it through last year's regular season without a loss. That left the rest of the spots to teams with blemishes, leaving the selection committee to compare one team's warts to another's pimples in order to fill out the field.
Wouldn't it be easier if we had four teams with perfect marks?
That's not very likely, but there are a handful of FBS teams whose schedules make it very possible to run the table. It won't guarantee a playoff spot for some, especially those not in a power conference, but it could ensure at least a major bowl bid like the one reserved for the best Group of Five team.
Baylor
1 of 8
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 75-76
Toughest games: Nov. 5 at Kansas State, Nov. 21 at Oklahoma State, Nov. 27 at TCU
We begin with the poster child for the debate over whether it's better to go unbeaten or play a tough schedule. Baylor has routinely been atop the list of teams filling up on nonconference cupcakes for years, though coach Art Briles is adamant his team's schedule strength had "zero impact" on its playoff stature last year, per Jake Trotter of ESPN.
This season is no different as the Bears' "toughest" game before Big 12 play is a road game against an SMU team that was 1-11 a year ago and has undergone a coaching change.
Baylor's schedule continues to be weak far after nonconference play ends. Three of its first four league games are in the state of Texas, including the annual clash with Texas Tech at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, and the first road trip is to Kansas.
The Bears don't play a road game against a team with a winning record from 2014 until November, which is when the schedule quickly switches from soft to strong. The final five games are all against bowl teams, including trips to Oklahoma State and TCU.
Ultimately, it will be the TCU game that determines if Baylor can be a playoff team. It won this contest last year at home, a victory that likely would have led to a semifinal bid if not for a follow-up loss at West Virginia.
Boise State
2 of 8
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 76-77
Toughest games: Sept. 12 at BYU, Oct. 10 at Colorado State, Oct. 16 at Utah State
Boise State landed the coveted non-power bid to a major bowl game last season, reaching the Fiesta Bowl and knocking off Arizona to go 12-2. The Broncos were considered the favorite for that spot even before Marshall lost its regular-season finale, despite having two losses, because their schedule was quite strong thanks to an opener against Ole Miss and matchups with three Mountain West opponents who won 10 games.
The Broncos might need to go unbeaten to get that bowl invite again, since the pre-league slate isn't as tough as a year ago and the Mountain West's best could see some regression in 2015.
Boise gets Washington on the blue turf to open play, pitting some current Broncos against former coach Chris Petersen, and there are trips to BYU and Virginia that could prove troublesome. Once Mountain West play begins, though, there's really just one two-game stretch that will be of issue: a visit to Colorado State and then six days later at Utah State.
After that, there's only one team that finished above .500 last year on the schedule as well as league crossover games (Hawaii, at UNLV, at San Jose State) against the bottom half of the West Division.
Clemson
3 of 8
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 88-62
Toughest games: Oct. 3 vs. Notre Dame, Oct. 10 vs. Georgia Tech, Nov. 7 vs. Florida State, Nov. 28 at South Carolina
Based on 2014 records alone, Clemson's schedule will be one of the toughest of any team in the country that isn't playing in the SEC. But look closer and you'll see the Tigers get most of their difficult matchups in Death Valley, where they're 26-2 over the past four seasons and last lost in 2013.
That was against Florida State, which was in the midst of a national championship run. The Seminoles return to Clemson this year but figure to be vulnerable to the Tigers for the first time in years and that could signal a sea change in the ACC's Atlantic Division.
Also coming to Death Valley are presumptive Coastal winner Georgia Tech and Notre Dame, and while the conference road slate has some potential pitfalls—the Tigers go to Louisville in September and North Carolina State on Halloween—the game that could make or break a perfect season could be the end-of-season clash with in-state rival South Carolina.
Clemson hasn't won in Columbia since 2007, and its last three trips there have resulted in losses by 17, 21 and 17 points, respectively.
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Louisiana-Lafayette
4 of 8
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 62-86
Toughest games: Sept. 5 at Kentucky, Oct. 3 at Louisiana Tech, Oct. 20 at Arkansas State
Louisiana-Lafayette has been the gold standard in the Sun Belt the past four seasons, and the Ragin' Cajuns figure to be the best of the FBS' lowest-rated league yet again in 2015. For once, the nonconference schedule also lines up to where they can potentially get through it unscathed after going a combined 7-9 the past four seasons.
Kentucky fans might be looking at their opener against ULL and see the perfect opponent to christen the remodeled Commonwealth Stadium, but the Cajuns can very well win that game for their first victory over a power opponent since 2009. The other challenge before Sun Belt play is at Louisiana Tech, piloted by former Florida quarterback Jeff Driskel, but after being blown out at home by the Bulldogs last year there's a revenge factor in place.
Then comes the Sun Belt schedule, which includes the annual clash with fellow league power Arkansas State but doesn't feature a game against rising contender Georgia Southern.
Marshall
5 of 8
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 54-89
Toughest games: Sept. 6 vs. Purdue, Nov. 7 at Middle Tennessee, Nov. 27 at Western Kentucky
Here are a couple of pretty reliable rules of thumb for determining the strength (or softness) of a college schedule: When a home game against Purdue is on the short list of toughest games, your schedule is kind of easy. And when the only opponent that played in a bowl game last season doesn't arrive on the schedule until the finale, you have a slate that's set up for potential perfection.
Even with half of its starters gone from last year's 13-1 team, "Marshall is still going to be more athletic than its competition on what is, yes, another pretty weak slate," SB Nation's Bob Connelly wrote.
Marshall's 2014 schedule was so weak that it made the Thundering Herd an underdog to even sniff a shot at a major bowl bid despite starting 11-0, and the slate this year is even worse. The school might want to get the public relations firm it hired last year to boost its image on the case before the season begins, because the opponents aren't going to do Marshall any favorites.
Purdue had the worst record in the Big Ten last year and isn't expected to be much better this season, yet the Boilermakers would likely win 10 games against Marshall's schedule. At 6-6, Middle Tennessee and Old Dominion have the second-best 2014 marks of the Herd's opponents and if not for the finale at Western Kentucky—the only team to beat the Herd last year—this slate would be devoid of anything close to a tough matchup.
Memphis
6 of 8
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 65-84
Toughest games: Oct. 17 vs. Ole Miss, Nov. 14 at Houston
Memphis went from the basement to the penthouse last season, winning the American Athletic Conference after going 3-9 and finishing tied for last place the year before. Now the Tigers are not only the favorites to claim a second straight AAC title (and the first conference title game now that the league has 12 teams and two divisions), but they have a schedule that makes perfection a distinct reality.
It's not as though Memphis went the Baylor route and loaded up on walkovers in the nonconference, as it visits Kansas and also hosts Ole Miss in October. That game comes after a bye, and if it hasn't already been chosen by the school as the Homecoming matchup it should be.
The American is a stronger league than it was a year ago, thanks to the addition of Navy and schools like Houston, SMU and Tulsa making quality coaching hires. But Memphis avoids two of the conference's better teams, East Carolina and UCF, and Houston is the only league foe it plays on the road that made a bowl game in 2014.
Ohio State
7 of 8
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 86-69
Toughest games: Sept. 7 at Virginia Tech, Nov. 21 vs. Michigan State, Nov. 28 at Michigan
With an almost-intact lineup returning from last year's national championship team, Ohio State has the kind of talent and depth that almost negates any trouble its schedule could bring. Regardless of who the Buckeyes go with at quarterback, or if they have to again shuffle through a few because of injuries, this team appears too good to uncharacteristically stumble as it did last season against Virginia Tech.
In fact, that opener at the Hokies on Labor Day could end up being the peak of schedule difficulty until late November. Six of the next eight are in Columbus, with only trips to Indiana and Rutgers included, and the remainder of the nonconference slate features Hawaii, Northern Illinois and Western Michigan.
NIU and WMU are two of the best teams in the Mid-American, but OSU hasn't lost to a MAC team since 1894.
Only the final two weeks of the season look daunting in any way. That's when the Buckeyes wrap up things with a visit from Michigan State and then the first edition of the Jim Harbaugh/Urban Meyer rivalry with Michigan in Ann Arbor.
TCU
8 of 8
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 74-78
Toughest games: Sept. 3 at Minnesota, Nov. 21 at Oklahoma, Nov. 27 vs. Baylor
TCU's breakthrough last season included huge wins at Texas and West Virginia, as well as signature home victories over Kansas State and Oklahoma. Oh, and that epic collapse in the fourth quarter at Baylor, which kept the Horned Frogs from getting into the playoffs.
The round-robin nature of the Big 12 makes for a year-after-year reversal of the opponents and locales, so this time around TCU meets Baylor in Waco and gets the Bears right after Thanksgiving in the perfect showcase for the selection committee since the league has no championship game. Six days earlier, however, TCU is in Norman, and Oklahoma is not the kind of opponent that is wise to overlook prior to a showdown.
Beside that two-game stretch, though, the rest of TCU's schedule is very manageable since the other conference road games are at Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and a rebuilding Kansas State.
The Baylor clash will likely be the game that separates the Frogs from being perfect or risking another one-loss snub, but the game that might have the most impact on postseason consideration is right at the beginning. A Sept. 3 opener at Minnesota is by all means winnable, but the Thursday night setting right out of the gate could be problematic all the same.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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