Billy Wagner to Red Sox

As I’m sure you know by now, the Red Sox acquired Billy Wagner from the Mets for two players to be named later.  One of the PTBNLs is reported to be 26 year old, long-time AAA 1Bman and corner outfielder Chris Carter (who looks a lot like a future star in the Japanese Leagues when MLB gives up on him in another year or two.)

The most interesting thing about the deal is all the machinations around Wagner’s contract and where he’ll be next year.  Wagner has a $8 million team option for 2010, or a $1.25 million buy-out.

Wagner is coming off Tommy John elbow surgery and has been limited to two appearances this year in which he pitched a total of two innings but has struck out four.  He understandably has some concern about how hard he’d be pitched by the in-contention Red Sox as opposed to the going-nowhere Mets, but he’s also stated that he wants a chance to win a World Series ring.

However, he’s also certain that he wants to be someone’s closer next year, which isn’t likely to happen in Boston barring an injury to Jonathan Papalbon.

After the Red Sox claimed Wagner on waivers but before the trade was worked out, there was some sniping back and forth in the press between Jonathan Papelbon, who perhaps feels a bit threatened by the Sox attempting to bring in another established closer, and Wagner, who didn’t appreciate Papelbon’s comments.

The big sticking point in getting Wagner to waive his no-trade clause, was that while the Red Sox agreed that they would not exercise Wagner’s $ 8 million option for 2010 (so Wagner can close somewhere else; in this market at his age and after major arm surgery, I would be extremely surprised if anyone else will give Wagner $8 million for 2010), the Sox would not agree not to offer Wagner arbitration.

If the Sox offered Wagner arbitration, and Wagner accepted, the Sox would have to offer Wagner at least what he makes this year ($8 million) and probably slightly more (I can’t see an arbitrator giving Wagner much of a raise after the elbow limited him to two months of work this year).

Even better for the Sox, if Wagner rejected an offer of arbitration and signed with another team where he could close, Boston would get two draft picks, since under the Elias formula used, Wagner projects as a Type A free agent.  If a signing team has to give up a late first round or early second round pick (more likely the latter, since I don’t see many of the top teams going after Wagner), it will obviously impact the contract offers Wagner receives.

Unfortunately, I don’t know whether the Red Sox agreed not to offer Wagner arbitration or whether Wagner’s agent impressed upon him that it might hurt his value if at this stage in his career (Wagner is 38), he looks like he’s more interested in getting a big contract or closing than he is in winning.

It will be interesting to see how it all plays out this off-season.