Eagles Should Trade Down from No. 20 to Maximize Early-Round Value

With the NFL draft (finally!) just two weeks away, the talk in Philadelphia is still mainly on whether head coach Chip Kelly is able to trade up for his Heisman quarterback, Marcus Mariota. While I still think Kelly finds a way to land Mariota, if he doesn't, he is facing his first NFL draft with complete control over all personnel decisions. 

Last year, the Eagles had six realistic options they strongly desired in the first round. I'd speculate those six players to be linebacker Anthony Barr, wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., cornerback Kyle Fuller, linebacker C.J. Mosley, wide receiver Brandin Cooks and safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. While we don't know for sure that those were the targeted six, we do know that each of the six players was gone before the Eagles picked at 22, with Cooks and Clinton-Dix going in successive picks before the Eagles' selection. 

That led the Eagles to trade down with the Cleveland Browns, who grabbed Heisman winner Johnny Manziel. Although the Eagles did receive an extra third-round pick in the trade with Cleveland, they reached for pass-rusher Marcus Smith in the first round. 

Smith, a player I actually projected to go to the Eagles with the 70th overall pick, was a complete disaster as a rookie. He played in just 74 snaps all year, recording zero solo tackles. He has bust written all over him unless he takes a major step forward in his second season.

The Eagles cannot afford to make that mistake again this season. 

Picking at 20, the Eagles could have a number of players they've shown interest in be available, notably wide receiver Nelson Agholor, offensive lineman Jake Fisher and defensive backs Byron Jones and Eric Rowe. All four would likely be a great fit for the Eagles, but the guess here is that the Eagles could obtain any one of the four at the end of the first round instead of at pick 20. 

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My guess is #Eagles trade back in first round, select Byron Jones or Eric Rowe. Then trade up in round second round and get Nelson Agholor.

— Tyler Steege (@EaglesFanTalk) April 10, 2015

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In fact, let's take a look where those four players have been projected to go in some mock drafts. 

Player	Draft Site	Walter Football	Draft Breakdown	Matt Miller
Nelson Agholor	76	43	49	46
Jake Fisher	38	34	38	33
Byron Jones	30	36	20	45
Eric Rowe	73	52	66	121

Look at the above chart. Those are perhaps the top four realistic targets for the Eagles with the 20th overall pick. Only one of the 16 picks is projected to go before the first 30 picks, and only two are expected to go in the first round, according to the above mock drafts.

There's no point at all for the Eagles to reach for a player with their 20th pick when they could very likely get the same player if they moved back, 10, 15 or even 20 spots in the draft. They'd also obtain an extra mid-round pick in a trade back. 

Look at it this way. The Eagles could select Fisher in the first round and Agholor in the second round. Or they could select Fisher and Agholor in the second round and Rowe in the third round. 

Those are purely hypothetical scenarios, and it's impossible to know what will happen until the Eagles are on the clock. They may not even have an offer to trade back. If they do, like last season, they could still mess up the pick anyway. 

But getting picks in a draft class with many of the team's targeted players going in the second and third rounds is a tremendous idea, and it's one Kelly should look to achieve during draft weekend. That is, of course, unless he finds a way to trade up for Mariota instead.