NBA MVP 2015: Odds, Candidates, Predictions and More for Coveted Race
The battle for the NBA Most Valuable Player Award has come down to the final hours of the 2014-15 season.
While Stephen Curry appears to be leading the way, James Harden, Russell Westbrook and four-time MVP LeBron James are still in contention.
But what do the oddsmakers have to say about the tightly contested race? Which superstar is most likely to take home the hardware?
Though each player is backed by a legitimate argument, a voter's responsibility is to decide which one is the most convincing. This article takes a look at why Curry, Harden, Westbrook or James could win the coveted honor while discussing a couple of honorable mentions, too.
Note: Odds used courtesy of oddschecker.com.
Honorable Mentions
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Anthony Davis, Power Forward, New Orleans Pelicans: (100-1)
His MVP season is coming soon, but it won't be 2014-15.
The 22-year-old has already established himself as a premier force in the league. Statistically speaking, Anthony Davis has put together performances bested only by Hall of Fame center Hakeem Olajuwon.
On March 4, for example, Davis amassed 39 points, 13 rebounds, eight blocks and three steals. Seven times has a 26/13/8/3 game been accomplished; Davis has done it twice and Olajuwon five times, per Basketball-Reference.com.
Davis' averages of 24.3 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.9 blocks, 2.2 assists and 1.5 steals compare to Olajuwon, David Robinson and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Plus, Davis' 123 offensive rating stands out as the best clip among the group.
It's a shame he missed 14 games this season and the Pelicans are not an elite team, because Davis deserves to be in the MVP conversation. Regardless, he's next.
Chris Paul, Point Guard, Los Angeles Clippers: (Unlisted)
Though CP3 hung around the MVP debate for a strong portion of the year, the Los Angeles Clippers guard won't be a tremendous factor in the final results.
However, the Clippers would be lost without Chris Paul. Blake Griffin was unavailable for 15 contests. DeAndre Jordan can't shoot outside of 18 inches. The bench is terrible.
Oh, that bench. Oh, that horrible, terrible, putrid bench. When Matt Barnes has posted a plus-10.7 offensive split, you know things are bad. Unsurprisingly, Paul's numbers are significantly higher.
The team's offensive rating with CP3 on the floor is 118.1. When Paul heads to the bench, that number plummets to 98.3. Ninety-eight-point-three.
Paul is the most important piece on a potentially dangerous Los Angeles squad, accounting for 19.0 points, an NBA-high 10.3 assists, 4.6 rebounds and 1.9 steals per night. But if something were to happen to him, the Clippers would be dead.
That's some serious value.
LeBron James: (30-1)
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LeBron James is watching the MVP race from a significant distance, but he simply cannot be excluded.
Is the small forward less deserving than the soon-to-be-discussed trio? Perhaps. But he's still going to receive a handful or more of first-place votes, making him a legitimate contender.
Jason Lloyd of the Akron Beacon Journal explained why he tabbed LeBron for MVP:
"He lifted an entire franchise and region with his return. He took a team going on its third coach in as many years, with the worst overall record the past four years, a dysfunctional locker room and a hands-on owner and (eventually) steadied it all."
In mid-January, James returned from an eight-game absence and has since guided the Cleveland Cavaliers—who were 19-19 at the time—to a 33-10 mark, good enough for second place in the Eastern Conference.
With LeBron on the court, Cleveland has posted a 115.5 offensive rating and a 104.8 defensive clip, per Basketball-Reference.com. When he exits the floor, however, those numbers flip to 102.9 and 109.3, respectively.
Overall, James tallied 25.3 points, 7.4 assists and 6.0 rebounds per outing, marking his 11th straight season with a 25-7-6 average.
LeBron remains the best player in basketball. Whether or not he earns MVP No. 5 this year will not change that.
Russell Westbrook: (12-1)
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Russell Westbrook challenges the question of what value really is. Are voters looking for the best player on the best team? The most prolific player according to stats? Or maybe, it's the reason a team finds itself in a specific position.
The Oklahoma City Thunder lost Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka to injury, traded for a one-dimensional Dion Waiters and had a money-driven Reggie Jackson playing major minutes for most of the year.
Without Westbrook, OKC would likely find itself battling the Denver Nuggets and Sacramento Kings in the third quadrant of the Western Conference standings. With him, the Thunder are tied with New Orleans for eighth place.
He missed 14 of the team's first 16 games, helplessly watching Oklahoma City fall to 3-13 and need a miracle to reach the postseason. Westbrook provided that magic—over and over again.
The explosive point guard has racked up an NBA-leading and career-high 28.0 points per appearance, complemented by personal bests of 8.6 assists, 7.3 rebounds and 2.1 steals. He's also registered 11 triple-doubles this year.
What's more, the Thunder have surrendered the league's third-worst defensive rating (107.6) since Durant's exit in mid-February, per NBA.com. Westbrook's 109.1 offensive rating is the only reason OKC hasn't fallen out of the playoff picture.
Single-handedly carrying a team to the brink of the postseason is an MVP-worthy achievement. That's exactly what Westbrook has done.
James Harden: (5-2)
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Often criticized for being a mediocre defender, Harden makes up for his shortcoming with a versatile offensive game. The sweet-shooting lefty ranks No. 1 in ESPN's offensive real plus-minus and touts 19.54 wins above replacement.
And on a team once decimated by injuries, he's notched those numbers as the Houston Rockets' lone off-the-dribble creator.
Throughout the season, Harden has been a staple at the free-throw line. Now, he's received the most bailout calls of any player—evidenced by his league-leading 10.2 attempts per game—but that status is a credit to his willingness to attack the rim and force a whistle.
As a result, Harden has managed a career-best 27.5 points, burying 86.6 percent from the charity stripe and 44.0 percent from the field. Plus, he's accrued a 110.4 offensive rating and plus-13.5 offensive split, per Basketball-Reference.com.
Harden believes he should win the award, according to NBA.com's Fran Blinebury.
"I feel as though I am the MVP. I think the MVP is the most valuable player to your team. Obviously you have to be winning and be one of the top teams in this league and we are.
I'm not taking credit away from anybody else in the league. But I've been consistent all year. I've just been doing the right things to put my team in situations to win, considering all of the different circumstances we've had to deal with.
"
HoopsHype recently polled 29 NBA players, and Harden earned the MVP victory by the slimmest of margins. What does that mean? Depending on your personal view, maybe nothing, perhaps something or possibly everything.
The point is, Harden deserves every bit of the honor.
Stephen Curry: (1-7)
5 of 6The man is a human highlight reel. Curry showcases the NBA's fastest, most accurate shooting stroke along with jaw-dropping dribbling ability that is essentially the reason six-second video app Vine exists.
In 2014-15, he's epitomized playground basketball at the professional level, yet Curry has done so with remarkable efficiency. According to NBA.com, he's recorded a 59.4 effective field-goal percentage—which accounts for the value of a three-ball—the highest of any MVP candidate.
What's more, since the All-Star break, Curry has converted on 51.7 percent of his three-point attempts despite launching 8.5 per game. Put simply, that is absurd. He set a new NBA record with 284 triples.
But like ESPN's Ethan Sherwood Strauss noted, Curry's outstanding campaign of 23.9 points, 7.7 assists, 4.3 rebounds and 2.0 steals per outing could be even better.
The Golden State Warriors point guard has sat out 18 fourth quarters due to the score being a blowout. Sure, Curry has a better supporting cast than Westbrook or Harden, but the team's 36-minute successes are a reflection of his dominance.
Prediction
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James, Westbrook and Harden each deserve to be labeled the 2014-15 NBA MVP. But history, statistics, the eye test and odds all suggest Curry will raise the trophy.
He also belongs to a trend that an Eastern Conference executive suggested will be difficult to break, per NBA.com's Sekou Smith.
"I'll be stunned if anyone other than Steph wins this thing. It's not about what somebody else has done. It's about what he's done all season on the team that has set the pace for the entire league. Historically, in all of my years in the league, that's usually been the winning formula ... the best player on the runaway best team in the league.
"
Curry has posted a league-best .289 win shares per 48 minutes, according to Basketball-Reference.com. His value—no matter if he's a part of an elite squad—is undeniable.
The battle between Curry and Harden should be epic, perhaps the tightest MVP race since 2005 when Steve Nash bested Shaquille O'Neal by 34 points.
But it looks like Curry will come out on top.
Unless otherwise noted, stats are courtesy of Basketball-Reference and are accurate as of April 14.
Follow Bleacher Report NBA writer David Kenyon on Twitter: @Kenyon19_BR.
