Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Green Bay Packers' Top 3 Picks
The NFL teams that have the most successful drafts, like the Green Bay Packers, always have a contingency plan (and a contingency plan for that contingency plan) on draft day.
General manager Ted Thompson is steadfast about selecting players at the values he has determined for them, and he'll often trade to where that player is on the board to be sure that value and draft position meet.
However, what is completely out of the Packers' control is how other teams make their selections, especially in the first three rounds. Those picks will determine who is left on the board for Green Bay at the ends of each round.
Let's examine the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Packers in Rounds 1, 2 and 3 and look at how each could play out over the draft.
Round 1 (Pick 30) Best Case: An Elite Player Falls to Green Bay
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There are a handful of projected first-round prospects in the draft who Thompson would just love to see fall to Green Bay's pick at No. 30, including cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Kevin Johnson.
Currently, Wake Forest's Johnson is ranked as the No. 19 overall player in the draft by CBSSports.com and the No. 2 player at his position. Peters, an ex-Washington Husky, is No. 26 overall on the list.
Of course, the only thing that will ultimately determine prospects' rankings relative to one another is at which pick teams select them, and the actual draft order may not be representative of talent or value. Teams with needs reach for players, while other teams choose players outside the positions thought to be their greatest needs.
Still, it's a widely recognized fact that if either Johnson or Peters fall to No. 30, it'd be a fantastic value choice for Green Bay. Thompson has never drafted a cornerback in Round 1, but he would almost have to if either of those two players were available based on sheer value (let alone what they could bring to the team).
Drafting inside linebacker Eric Kendricks or defensive tackle Eddie Goldman at No. 30 also falls into the "best-case scenario" category for Green Bay's first pick.
Kendricks, skilled in pass coverage and against the run, is quite possibly the most complete linebacker in the class and would be an instant upgrade and potential immediate starter for Green Bay. Goldman would give the Packers a future at nose tackle if B.J. Raji or Letroy Guion (or both) depart after their one-year deals are up in 2016.
Round 1 (Pick 30) Worst Case: GB Doesn't Like Value on Board, Can't Make a Trade
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It's possible that Thompson is only targeting a relatively small group of players for Green Bay's 30th pick and would look to trade out of the first round if many of them were off the board.
Players who Thompson could be hoping will be available at 30 could include the aforementioned Johnson, Peters and Kendricks or defensive tackle Goldman and cornerback Byron Jones.
Goldman is currently ranked 20th overall on the big board of NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah. Rising star Jones has catapulted up to the 21st prospect in CBSSports.com's rankings.
However, team needs could take many of these elite prospects off the board early, leaving the Round 1 or Round 2 bubble players that Thompson may not like for the 30th pick. Those players could include Mississippi State inside linebacker Benardrick McKinney, Oklahoma defensive tackle Jordan Phillips, LSU cornerback Jalen Collins and Washington linebacker Shaq Thompson.
In a vacuum, many of those players could turn out to be successful in Green Bay's system; we will never know until or if that happens. But that doesn't mean they're worth the 30th pick in Thompson's eyes.
If the Packers are unable to find a trade partner, possibly because the teams who would be candidates think they can get their guy in the early second round, Thompson won't like to overvalue a player in Round 1.
Round 2 (Pick 62) Best Case: ILB Stephone Anthony Falls to Packers
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It's a dream scenario, but it's not a when-pigs-fly scenario.
Should the Packers count on inside linebacker Stephone Anthony being available at 62nd overall? Certainly not.
But if Green Bay elects not to trade up in Round 2 (or trade out of Round 1 for an early second-round pick), takes care of another position first and then finds Anthony available at No. 62, it would be the absolute best-case scenario.
A few months ago, it would have been absurd to predict that Anthony would be off the board by No. 62. The Clemson product was originally projected to be taken in the fifth round by CBSSports.com, which now ranks him as the 68th overall player and No. 3 at his position.
Anthony was productive in his career for the Tigers, with 121 tackles and 23.5 tackles for loss in his last two seasons, but it was at the Senior Bowl that he really elevated his stock. His 4.56-second 40-yard dash at the NFL combine also helped put him on the map.
If the Packers are legitimately targeting Anthony, however, Thompson should and likely would put the team in position to draft him earlier than 62nd.
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Round 2 (Pick 62) Worst Case: Elite LBs and CBs Are Off the Board
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Connecticut cornerback Jones was another prospect the Packers could have once considered for their pick at No. 62; now, somewhat amazingly, Jones has skyrocketed to No. 21 on CBSSports.com's rankings after an unbelievable combine performance where he set a new broad jump record.
If the Packers are looking at corners in Round 2, they'll be targeting a group that could include Florida State's Ronald Darby, Miami of Ohio's Quinten Rollins and the fallen-from-grace P.J. Williams, also from Florida State. (However, after his recent arrest, it's possible Thompson has taken Williams off the Packers' board.)
If the Packers pass on inside linebacker Kendricks in Round 1, they'll be looking at Miami's Denzel Perryman and TCU's Paul Dawson late in Round 2.
The problem is, what if all these players are gone?
Omar Kelly of the Sun Sentinel has compiled a comprehensive guide to team needs. In it, he lists 21 teams other than the Packers as needing a cornerback.
Now, will all of those teams be looking to take one in Rounds 1 or 2? No, but teams that feasibly could include the Chicago Bears, St. Louis Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots.
If there's a run on cornerbacks early, the Packers may not see a prospect on the board worth the 62nd pick. Sure, they can always try to trade the pick, but if they've waited until the end of Round 2 to draft a cornerback, that won't help them land a starting-caliber player.
As for inside linebacker, Kelly thinks 12 teams are in the market for one in addition to the Packers, and most pick before them in the draft order. Teams that could seriously hinder the Packers' ability to draft a starting-caliber inside 'backer are the Indianapolis Colts, Denver Broncos, New Orleans Saints, Bears and 49ers.
All it takes are five teams looking to take one before No. 62, and suddenly, the next best option at inside linebacker for Green Bay is Kansas' Ben Heeney in Round 4.
Round 3 (Pick 94) Best Case: Green Bay Steals ILB Paul Dawson
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Even if the Packers select an inside linebacker in the first or second round, the depth needed at the position warrants two selections in the draft, and TCU's Dawson would be an absolute steal at No. 94 and a reasonable target earlier in Round 3 if Green Bay were to trade up or acquire another third-rounder from an earlier trade.
Is it entirely outside the realm of possibility? Not completely: CBSSports.com currently ranks Dawson as its No. 82 player. There's also no telling how much teams have taken to heart scouts who question Dawson's "commitment to the process" and his time in the 40-yard dash (4.93 seconds at the combine, improved to 4.75 and 4.77 seconds at his pro day).
Despite those question marks, however, Dawson's tape tells the story of one of the most talented prospects at the position in this class. He's quick, he's aggressive, and he can get downhill against the run and chase sideline to sideline.
The best situation in which Green Bay could be come training camp is to have two high-quality inside linebackers such as Kendricks and Dawson to push one another for the starting job next to Sam Barrington.
That just won't be possible if the Packers take their second linebacker in the middle rounds, even if someone like Georgia's Ramik Wilson or Michigan State's Taiwan Jones would be great for depth.
Round 3 (Pick 94) Worst Case: Packers Select QB Bryce Petty
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Is Baylor's Bryce Petty an incredibly talented quarterback prospect? Yes. Could the Packers benefit from adding a third quarterback to their roster? Definitely.
However, drafting Petty with the 94th pick when the Packers are years away from needing to find Aaron Rodgers' replacement would be a poor use of a pick that could be better spent on a playmaking tight end, defensive line depth or even a pass-catching running back.
For depth alone, there are other prospects Green Bay could look to in later rounds such as South Alabama's Brandon Bridge or Nevada's Cody Fajardo.
The only reason Petty is even being factored into this scenario is that the Packers plan to host him for a visit prior to the draft, as ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky reported. Each team only had 30 predraft visits to use.
Hosting Petty could certainly be a smokescreen by Thompson, hoping perhaps to push him up draft boards and consequently have a prospect the Packers really want fall to them. However, given the fact that he'll visit Green Bay, we must at least consider the possiblity that the Packers have genuine interest.
After all, head coach Mike McCarthy did say this offseason he wants to develop a young quarterback.
Ultimately, this scenario isn't dire and certainly isn't as undesirable as the two worst-case scenarios that precede it on this list. But there are plenty of other directions the Packers could and should go with pick No. 94 than Petty.
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