Do the Florida Marlins Stand a Chance?

Ask 10 people what they think of the Florida Marlins and their chances to make the playoffs and how far they would go if they actually did reach the playoffs, and you’re likely to get 10 different responses.

Some would tell you the Marlins have no shot whatsoever. That their minuscule payroll precludes them from even contending with such powerhouses as the division-leading St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers, and the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies; whose payrolls are $89 million, $100 million, and $113 million respectively.

After all, the Marlins have the lowest payroll in the Majors at $37 million. Even the teams competing with Florida for the Wild Card have much more money at their disposal to hire talent.

Colorado, who leads the Wild Card race, spends more than twice as much as Florida with a payroll of $75 million. The San Francisco Giants top them; spending $82 million; however, neither of those two teams can compare to the astronomical amounts spent on payroll by the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs, who are only behind the New York Yankees in the amount they dish out to their players—with payrolls of $135 million each.

The Marlins, though, seem to have a penchant for finding great young talent and building from within (with a dash of free-agent talent thrown in). They built two world championship teams that way, and have another great crop of young talent that has them right in the midst of a playoff chase late into August this year.

Although they’re six-and-a-half games behind the Phillies for the National League Eastern Division crown, they’re only four games out of the Wild Card race behind the Rockies, and behind only the Giants who are two games out.

Though the Marlins ended July well, going 8-2 in their last 10 games that month (including a series sweep over the San Diego Padres and series wins over the Dodgers and Atlanta Braves), at the beginning of August, nearly everyone would have told you the Marlins were toast. They’d just gotten swept by the lowly Washington Nationals (whom they’d beaten the previous nine times they’d played) and things looked bleak.

It seemed Florida had hit its late-season wall and would fade back into the pack to possibly play spoiler to the Mets again, or some team like them.

Like my own personal life at that time, the Marlins chances were looking a bit grim. I was having financial problems, and was forced to move out of my apartment. However, just as my personal life has turned a corner (I moved from New York City to Burlington, VT at the beginning of the month and things are looking great here), August seems to have been a turning point for Florida as well.

The next series against the vaunted World Champion Phillies in Philadelphia, at the beginning of August, gave rise to a belief in many, though, that this season might be different. They swept the Phillies in their own home stadium. They followed that by taking three-of-four from the Houston Astros and sweeping the Wild Card leading Rockies in their seven-game homestand.

Although they’ve since lost a three-game series to the Astros in Houston and the Braves in Atlanta, the Marlins have been playing outstanding baseball of late and topped the Mets last night 2-1.

Couple this with the fact their young pitching staff is getting healthy (Anibal Sanchez just made strong return start the other night throwing a no-hitter into the sixth, striking out seven and retiring 14 in a row at one point) and the Marlins are beginning to turn heads.

Josh Johnson is pitching lights out, and an argument could easily be made that he’s been the best pitcher in the Majors since last July. Johnson is 12-3 this season with an ERA of 2.99 and a WHIP of 1.09. Since last July when he returned from Tommy John surgery he’s 19-4 and practically unhittable.

One of his recent starts he topped Sanchez by taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning. And lest we forget, Ricky Nolasco has solidly returned to his All-Star caliber play since his early year troubles, actually besting Johnson’s performance that week with one of his own.

After giving up a two-run homer to Carlos Lee in the first inning of a 6-2 win over the Astros, Nolasco retired 23-straight Houston batters before giving up a bunt single in the ninth inning to Michael Bourn.

That gives the Marlins three young, but talented veteran arms to take into a playoff series, along with three others who could also make strong contributions in Chris Volstad, Sean West, and Burke Badenhop. Matt Lindstrom's return to the team has also shored up an already impressive bullpen, with Leo Nunez, Dan Meyer, Kiko Calero, and Brendan Donnelly.

Combine that with the fact they seem to have morphed into a modern-day teal version of the Big Red Machine of late, since the addition of Nick Johnson, and the immediate future looks bright for Florida. Since the All-Star break the Fish have the second-highest batting average in the Majors. Since the beginning of August, they’re second to none; with a team average of .314.

Very few people who follow baseball wouldn’t be able to tell you that Hanley Ramirez is leading the Majors with a .358 average, but few of them would also be able to tell you that every regular player on the Marlins' everyday roster, save two, is hitting .300 or better. Those two? Jorge Cantu and Dan Uggla.

Cantu is working his way up to .300 and Uggla was hitting .299 prior to today’s game. Chris Coghlan is hitting at an amazing .391 clip in August, but even he is topped by Emilio Bonifacio, reduced to a part-time role now, who is batting .394 this month.

While you’ll get 10 different answers on the chances that the Marlins will make the playoffs and to do anything if they did, I think it wouldn’t be too far-fetched to say that all 10 of those people responding would rather not face these Marlins if they had the choice.

Remember, Florida won the World Series in 1997 and 2003 as a Wild Card with young talented pitching and bats against far more vaunted competition, and the fact 2009 is right in line for the six year cycle doesn’t bode well for anyone who believes in fate.

Perhaps that’s just what it is.

Perhaps it's fate that the Marlins will win the World Series every six years as a Wild Card, until they get their new stadium built. Stranger things have happened in this history of baseball.

Who’s to say this isn’t so. Not me, that’s for sure. I’m a Marlins fan, after all. Do they stand a chance? You betcha.