Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for San Diego Chargers' Top 3 Picks
The top three picks are probably the most important on a team's draft board. Rounds 1-3 are filled with potential starters and game-changers.
Days 1 and 2 have been generous to the San Diego Chargers in years past. In 2013, the Bolts selected offensive tackle D.J. Fluker in the first round, linebacker Manti Te'o in the second and wide receiver Keenan Allen in Round 3. Fluker has become a staple of the offensive line, Te'o is making strides as a full-time starter on defense and Allen had one of the best seasons by a rookie wideout in franchise history.
Time will tell if the 2014 class is as successful, but it's not a bad start. Jason Verrett, San Diego's first-round pick a year ago, showed promise at cornerback before a shoulder injury cut his rookie season short. He wouldn't go empty-handed, though, as his first career interception helped seal a victory over the Oakland Raiders.
Second-round selection Jeremiah Attaochu was bothered by a nagging hamstring that kept him out of five games, but he too found a way to leave his mark. Attaochu had a strip-sack and blocked punt in the season opener against the Arizona Cardinals and will be competing for a starting job at outside linebacker this season with both Jarret Johnson and Dwight Freeney gone.
Chris Watt, a third-round pick last year, started five games at center due to injuries on the roster and is penciled in as the starter for 2015.
As you can see, the first two days of the draft can be paramount to a team's future success. With that in mind, let's take a look at the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Chargers' top three picks.
Best-Case Scenario in Round 1: Mariota Falls to No. 17
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More than a few teams are rumored to be interested in Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota— the Chargers are included in that bunch, according to ESPN.com's Eric D. Williams— and teams like the Eagles are flirting with the idea of moving up for the Heisman Trophy winner, as reported by Chase Goodbread of College Football 24/7 (h/t NFL.com).
But in the event he were to slip past the Tennessee Titans at No. 2 and continue his descent to No. 17, as NFL.com media analyst Bucky Brooks has predicted in his latest mock draft, San Diego would be looking at the best possible scenario on Day 1 for a couple of reasons.
One of them is the contract situation of Philip Rivers, who is undecided on a long-term future as the Chargers' starting quarterback. If Rivers does choose to go elsewhere when his contract expires in 2016, having Mariota in place would make for a smoother transition during the offseason. As it turns out, Rivers is mentoring Mariota ahead of the draft, so their working together will be nothing new.
Mariota could also serve as a trade chip if the plan is to stockpile draft picks. Teams to look out for include the Cleveland Browns at No. 19 and the Philadelphia Eagles at No. 20. If the Chargers feel confident that Rivers will stay on for a couple more seasons, they could use those extra picks to build around him.
Worst-Case Scenario in Round 1: Gurley and Gordon Both Gone
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Running back is said to be San Diego's biggest need leading up to the draft, which is why most mock drafts have pinned either Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon to the Chargers with the 17th pick. But if neither is available, what then?
It seems highly unlikely that multiple teams ahead of the Chargers will suddenly become smitten with the idea of taking a running back, but I wouldn't rule it out either.
The Atlanta Falcons, who parted ways with veteran Steven Jackson in February, could be looking at a running back with the eighth overall pick, as NFL media analyst Charles Davis has predicted in a recent mock draft. The Miami Dolphins at No. 14 are also a possibility, according to CBS Sports draft analyst Dane Brugler. The list goes on and on.
In any case, if both Gurley and Gordon are gone by the time San Diego goes on the clock, it wouldn't be the end of the world. The running back class is a deep one with plenty to offer on Day 2.
The worst-case scenario is that the Chargers will turn their attention to the trenches or a pass-rusher in Round 1.
Best-Case Scenario in Round 2: Best Guard Still Available
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Laken Tomlinson, the highest-rated guard prospect according to ESPN, is a perfect get for the Chargers on Day 2.
He started every game the past four seasons at Duke and is a natural fit at right guard, where San Diego failed to upgrade during free agency. The listed starter is currently Johnnie Troutman, who was the lowest-graded right guard in 2014 by Pro Football Focus.
Tomlinson is rising up draft boards based on his performance at the Senior Bowl. He stonewalled some of the best pass-rushing prospects during one-on-one drills in practice.
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Worst-Case Scenario in Round 2: Bolts Left Scrambling to Select a Running Back
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If the Chargers have their heart set on adding a running back in Round 2, they could be sweating it out for some of the top second-tier prospects.
Jay Ajayi, Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson and Ameer Abdullah are the most popular names believed to be headlining Day 2. Teams figuring to select a running back after the first round could easily deplete that list, forcing the Chargers to move up in haste or possibly settle for another player altogether.
Of the four names mentioned, Ajayi, Coleman and Abdullah have been linked to San Diego in some manner by NFL.com, and all three are considered high risers on the second day of the draft.
Best-Case Scenario in Round 3: Pac-12 Pass-Rushers Slide to San Diego
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Assuming they can make the switch from defensive end to outside linebacker, Hau'Oli Kikaha and Nate Orchard are two intriguing pass-rushers for San Diego to consider.
Kikaha led the Pac-12 in sacks with 19 last season, and NFL.com's Lance Zierlein has labeled him "the most accomplished pure pass-rusher" in the draft. But what may prevent teams from making Kikaha a high draft pick is two ACL tears on the same knee from 2011-12. For that reason, he could drop as low as the third round.
In Orchard's case, there's nothing wrong with him medically, but could be considered a one-trick pony by considering he's something of a non-factor against the run. He too is likely to go somewhere in Rounds 2-3 after posting 18.5 sacks in 2014, second behind Kikaha in the Pac-12.
Both have tremendous ability rushing the passer, which the Chargers lacked a year ago. In the best-case scenario, their respective flaws will allow them to fall within San Diego's range.
Worst-Case Scenario in Round 3: Chargers Settle for QB of the Future
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Realistically, the Chargers aren't the odds-on favorites to land Mariota in Round 1 unless Rivers is packaged in a deal for the second overall pick with the Tennessee Titans.
And seeing as how the front office isn't particularly interested in exploring that possibility according to ESPN.com (h/t Pro Football Talk), San Diego may have to groom a mid-round prospect as the future successor to Rivers, one capable of starting in a year's time if need be.
Candidates include Baylor's Bryce Petty, UCLA standout Brett Hundley and Garrett Grayson of Colorado State. All three have been ranked and graded in close proximity to one another on NFL.com. And depending on how much teams value quarterbacks this year, the Chargers may have to consider saving their last pick of Day 2 for a signal-caller.
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