The San Diego Padres Do Not Need To Start Locking Up Their Young Players

This article originally appeared on Friar Forecast

The rule IV draft is fun for fans of losing teams. It is an outlet for hope, and adds a little excitement to an otherwise dull season.  It also helps highlight the importance of consistently developing major league quality players from within, and helps educate fans about concepts such as team control.

Recently, a reader, who like many of us, followed the draft carefully, and keeps close tabs on the Padres’ minor league system, asked an interesting question: “Now that the draft is over, which of the Padres’ young players should they lock up, buying out their arbitration years”?

The answer: Nobody.

Let me explain.

While buying out the arbitration years of young star players is often a good idea, unless the player is an Albert Pujols/Evan Longoria/Hanley Ramirez type star, I see no reason to negotiate in the first three years of team control. In those years, teams are able to pay players the minimum allowable salary, regardless of their production.

It is not until arbitration that players are compensated based on their performance.  Even then, things do not immediately get too expensive for teams. A general rule of thumb is that players earn 40% of what they are worth in their first year of arbitration, 60% in their second year, and 80% in their third year. That is a lot of surplus value. Particularly in the first year where a player worth $20 million is only expected to earn $8 million.

Buying out a player’s arbitration years early can save teams money, but it is also risky. An injury or dip in performance can make a commitment look silly quickly.  When the alternative is going year-by-year at greatly discounted salaries, the decision is usually pretty simple.

As I mentioned, unless the player is an obvious star, I do not believe teams should negotiate in the first three years of team control. The risk is much greater than the reward.

As far as the Padres are concerned, that rules out extending Latos, Cabrera, Blanks, and Headley.

I am more open to negotiating once players reach their arbitration years.

If the Padres were able to buy out a few of Kevin Kouzmanoff’s or Heath Bell’s arbitration years, I would be okay with it. But I do not consider doing so to be absolutely necessary. Going year-to-year with relievers is never a bad option. The same goes for league average third basemen.

The Padres have some solid young players, a few of which could even be labeled promising. What the team does not have is a young sure-fire superstar who still has his arbitration years ahead of him. At this point, there is little reason to commit to guaranteed multi-year salaries with any of the team’s young players.