NBA Lottery Teams That Will Make the Postseason Leap in 2015-16
The NBA playoffs are officially around the corner, and 14 teams won't be in attendance. They'll await their next turn after a summer of tweaking and continued rebuilding. And then, perhaps, their time will come.
It's the NBA circle of life, and it's a reality for all but the very best. We've selected five teams that appear to be on the upswing of that cycle, teams on the verge of doing their thing on the postseason stage. These are all lottery teams based on standings as of April 10.
Cracking the playoff picture isn't easy, and nothing is guaranteed for any of the clubs listed here. They're facing uphill battles to be sure—but increasingly surmountable battles.
5. Detroit Pistons
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Much of the Detroit Pistons' near-term prospects depend on how kind free agency is to the organization. If Greg Monroe and Reggie Jackson bolt for lucrative offers elsewhere via the free-agent market, Detroit will be hard-pressed to replace that kind of firepower immediately.
Andre Drummond and Brandon Jennings may be part of a solid, young core, but they aren't in and of themselves sufficient for a postseason berth—even in the weakened Eastern Conference.
But the Pistons can offer Monroe more money than any other suitor, and the club also seems keen on keeping Jackson around and seeing how he meshes with a healthy Jennings.
Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler reported in late March that, "Sources close to the process say the team is still very committed to keeping Jackson long-term and does plan on making a sizable free-agent offer."
Even if the Pistons whiff on retaining all of their in-house talent, they could make up the difference through free agency and the draft, replenishing at least some of the lost talent.
One also has to believe another season under Stan Van Gundy will help build some chemistry and team identity, particularly on the defensive end—where the team ranks 21st in defensive efficiency this season, allowing 104.2 points per 100 possessions, according to Hollinger Team Stats.
The big X-factor may be the development of second-year shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. He's become one of the club's more productive pieces with 12.7 points per contest. But another step forward in the efficiency department—where he makes a modest 33.5 percent of three-point attempts—could make him a premier two-way option.
There's a lot that could go wrong for the franchise this summer, but it should take some solace in the fact that SVG is running the show. If there's indeed serious change, perhaps it will be for the better. We knew it would take time for the head coach and team president to get the guys he wants.
Due patience aside, optimists have to like Detroit's chances in 2015-16.
4. Utah Jazz
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The Utah Jazz may not be a premier free-agent destination, but they managed to snag one of the best coaches whom far too few are talking about. Thanks in large part to the identity instilled by new skipper Quin Snyder, the team ranks 12th in defensive efficiency, according to Hollinger Team Stats, allowing a very reasonable 102 points per 100 possessions.
Utah has snagged 21 wins against Western Conference competition. That's one fewer than the Oklahoma City Thunder and more than the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves' combined 15 wins. The Jazz have proven they can hang with the stiff competition out West, at least on some nights.
While Utah may be a difference-maker or two away from cracking the playoffs, it's worth remembering all the young talent already on this roster. You know about Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors. And there's still plenty of time for the others to make dramatic improvements.
Dante Exum, Trey Burke, Rudy Gobert and Alec Burks are all age 23 or younger.
Admittedly, it's hard to imagine any lottery team out West sneaking into those top eight seeds. The Phoenix Suns and New Orleans Pelicans aren't going anywhere, and a healthy iteration of the Oklahoma City Thunder won't have problems making the postseason next year.
But Utah appears to be on the cusp of capturing what Phoenix had a season ago, that ability to beat superior teams on a consistent enough basis. Much of that has to do with Snyder's approach and ability to develop young talent. To hear him explain it, that ability to grow is the key to success in today's NBA.
"I think the capacity that the players have to develop and learn, the speed with which they can pick things up," Snyder told Basketball Insiders' Ben Dowsett. "People perceive talent as athleticism and size and strength, [but] a lot of the 'talent' that these guys have is their ability to learn quickly. Show them something, they can do it immediately."
While the Jazz have indeed been learning on the fly, it's bound to pay off in a big way at some point. Maybe some point soon.
3. Charlotte Hornets
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Blame the injuries. It might not be the classy thing to do among organizations, but it's fair game among objective analysts. The Charlotte Hornets spent time without virtually all of their key pieces at one point or another, and that almost certainly played a major role in halting any momentum in 2014-15.
There was, after all, some momentum after last season's appearance as a No. 8 seed—and still plenty of talent to go along with it.
But Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker needed some help, and Lance Stephenson has proven ill-equipped to provide it—so far, at least. Stephenson is averaging 8.2 points per contest and making just 37.6 percent of his field-goal attempts this season. That's not going to cut it for a third option. And it hasn't, leaving Stephenson something of an afterthought in Charlotte's rotation.
"Definitely I'm surprised," Stephenson told reporters regarding his role this month. "I feel like I can help this group but it's out of my hands and I'm just [trying to] stay ready and stay focused."
The fifth-year pro said he felt like he could play more freely with the Indiana Pacers, suggesting that the transition to a new club hasn't been easy.
"I'm very frustrated but it's a part of life and it's very humbling," Stephenson said, "but [I'm] just trying to stay focused and positive and whenever my number's called, just be ready."
In fairness, this was Stephenson's first season fitting into a new system, and he's still just 24-years-old. Next season could be different. He could be the player Charlotte had bargained for, or at least closer to it. And if he isn't, a trade might get the Hornets what they need.
In the East, that really isn't much.
With or without Stephenson, this is essentially the same team that made the playoffs in 2013-14. That's the best reason for believing it can return. The formula has worked. The defensive effort has been there. Head coach Steve Clifford has made something of this squad. The evidence is all there.
Reproducing that success may be as simple as staying healthy—or as complex as figuring out Lance Stephenson.
2. Phoenix Suns
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The Phoenix Suns will narrowly miss the playoffs again this season, extending a dry spell that's lasted since 2010.
But that trend may change before long.
This wound up being a transition season in many respects.
The three-point guard rotation didn't work out as anticipated. Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas were traded. Brandon Knight was acquired. By now, most of the shuffling should be finished. Everyone can take a deep breath and let head coach Jeff Hornacek develop a core that's still fairly young.
That core also happens to be pretty good. Knight, Eric Bledsoe and Markieff Morris could establish themselves as one of the league's better trios, and center Alex Len has begun to come into his own as an interior presence and rim protector.
You also have to like Brandan Wright's addition to the bench, particularly on account of his toughness and veteran pedigree. The Suns would be wise to lock him up during free agency this summer.
Talented core aside, the big question is whether this team can win in the West without a legitimate superstar.
There's no James Harden, Kevin Durant or Stephen Curry in these ranks, nor an Anthony Davis or LaMarcus Aldridge. Bledsoe may be the closest thing, and much depends on whether he asserts himself as a team-carrying kind of scorer.
It could happen.
And if it does, the Suns could become an even tougher out. Otherwise, Phoenix may be another piece or two away from its postseason return. To that end, the good news is general manager Ryan McDonough is willing to make a deal and aggressively upgrade the roster. One need only look to recent history.
With a little internal and—perhaps—external improvement, these Suns could be a bit brighter in 2015-16.
1. Miami Heat
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They'll be back. The Miami Heat's 2014-15 playoff chances don't look particularly good at the moment, but this season has all kinds of asterisks.
A healthy Chris Bosh will make a huge difference. So too will a full season of Goran Dragic, assuming the free-agent point guard sticks around. With him now on record declaring Miami his new favorite city to the Palm Beach Posts' Jason Lieser, that seems like a safe bet.
The prospect of Dragic and Bosh playing together—particularly in pick-and-pop situation—is intriguing. Dragic himself noted that Bosh would have made a huge difference to this season's playoff odds.
"Definitely, it would be easier than now," he told reporters. "He's a fantastic player. We would have one more option in the offense, and you know that you can count on him."
Luol Deng should also benefit from having additional time to adjust to head coach Erik Spoelstra's system. At his best, the 29-year-old is still one of the best forwards in the business. He may be destined to remain more of a complementary player in Miami, but he could also adopt more of a leadership role as his comfort level grows.
Factor in a healthy—and perhaps improved—Shabazz Napier, and there's still more to like about this team's depth. It suddenly has a respectable backcourt and, with a healthy Josh McRoberts, several options in the frontcourt as well.
While there's a lot to like about next season's roster on paper, there's also the fact that team president Pat Riley will do what it takes to keep this team in the conversation. At first glance, he probably won't have to do much.
