How Houston Rockets Can Avoid Another 1st-Round Exit in NBA Playoffs
Seventeen years. Only one time since 1997 have the Houston Rockets advanced past the first round of the NBA playoffs. To refresh your memory, that team included Hakeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler and Charles Barkley.
Yao Ming did it once, surprisingly without the help of an injured Tracy McGrady, back in 2009 in what would end up being his last trip to the postseason. With the help of Aaron Brooks and Ron Artest (before his name change), Yao's Rockets defeated the Portland Trail Blazers as the No. 5 seed after stealing Game 1 on the road.
The 2015 Rockets could find themselves in a similar situation.
The Harden-Howard era in Houston is in its second year, yet to advance past the opening round. Last year's squad let Portland return the favor from five years earlier, blowing home-court advantage as the No. 4 seed and falling in Game 6.
Now, the superstar duo is trying to break the curse and make a deep run into the playoffs, but there are some obstacles in its way.
First of all, we still have no earthly idea what matchup the Rockets will draw at season's end. Houston can land anywhere between the second and sixth seeds. It's impossible to know whom the Rockets will be playing and even if they'll have home-court advantage, but they will ultimately face the Memphis Grizzlies, San Antonio Spurs, L.A. Clippers or the aforementioned Blazers.
In 2009, the Rockets played the Dallas Mavericks in the last game of the season. A win would have locked up the second seed, but instead they lost, falling all the way down to fifth.
With five games left in the season, the Rockets were sitting pretty in the second spot behind the Golden State Warriors. A home-and-home against the surging Spurs later, Houston has tailspun down to the sixth seed for the first time in 2015.
Also like the '09 Rockets, this year's group has dealt with several injury issues. As if it weren't enough that Dwight Howard and Terrence Jones have each missed over half the team's games, Patrick Beverley and Donatas Motiejunas are ruled out for the remainder of the season with a wrist and back injury, respectively.
Houston will be down a couple of starters heading into the postseason, missing its second-best scorer and one heck of a defender. D-Mo has been a threat in the post all season long and even added a three-point shot down the stretch, keeping the Rockets afloat throughout all of the injuries. Bev's energy and peskiness are a treat for all Rockets fans, particularly come playoff time, and will be sorely missed.
Obviously, Houston can't afford to lose anyone else. That's pretty much a given.
But enough about the negatives. Let's start focusing on the positives to get this drought over with. Here's what needs to happen for the Rockets to advance.
It starts with the H and H boys.
Harden Leading the Way
Houston cannot afford to have Harden struggle in the postseason like he did last year. Wes Mathews did a nice job of making Harden work for everything, limiting the Beard to 37 percent shooting (29 percent beyond the arc).
Without Jeremy Lin and Chandler Parsons helping out with the scoring load, Harden will have to continue to shoulder the offensive burden, as he has all season long. He must continue his all-around output that has catapulted him into a top-two MVP candidate.
It won't be easy. Teams know he is the catalyst for the entire Rockets offense and will certainly plan accordingly.
We've seen Harden's productivity take a step back when he sees the double-team. Opposing coaches will throw their best on-ball defender on him at the perimeter and keep a rim protector lurking just outside the paint, waiting for Harden to drive.
When teams force Harden to give up the rock, the offense often staggers as a result. If coaches utilize this strategy, which they most likely will, other guys such as Trevor Ariza and Terrence Jones will have to step it up offensively. Those two guys will be left open because they don't typically create their own offense, but they're going to have to try against a defense scrambling to recover.
The Beard doesn't need to put up 40 points a night necessarily. Rather, the Rockets need him to make smart decisions based on what the defense gives him. That means taking open three-pointers, driving to the rack when it's clear and finding the open man if the defenders converge. He's done it all year, and it's worked quite well, so there's no point in stopping now.
Finally, Harden also needs to continue his success in the clutch. Knowing the Rockets, at least a few of these playoff games will go down to the wire. So far this season, Houston is 17-6 in games decided by five points or fewer, and the credit belongs to the Beard.
Harden has scored nearly 50 percent of the Rockets' points in clutch situations, shooting 48.1 percent from the field and 52.0 percent beyond the arc. He's hit some big-time shots at a pretty consistent rate, and any time you can decide a win in a seven-game series is obviously vital.
Simply put, the Rockets will only go as far as the Beard can carry them.
Utilize Howard Effectively
Believe it or not, Dwight Howard is actually the Rocket with the best plus-minus rating, according to NBA.com/Stats. Houston really struggles at protecting the rim and cleaning the glass when he leaves the game, especially since D-Mo injured his back.
Since returning from injury, Dwight has been on a tough minutes restriction. He hasn't played more than 27 minutes in a game, and he won't participate in back-to-backs.
Still, it's quite clear that the Rockets will be needing him for a substantial number of minutes when the playoffs start up. In the two-game set against the Spurs, Dwight was the only player for Houston to finish with a positive plus-minus. The second he checked out of the game, Gregg Popovich told his troops to attack the basket, and Dwight's absence was felt immediately.
Unfortunately, he can't play 48 minutes a night, gracing us with his defensive prowess and keeping the likes of Joey Dorsey on the bench. However, Dwight will need to play productively in the minutes that he does spend on the court.
Whether we like it or not, Dwight is going to have to post up at least a few times a game. There just aren't many other options offensively, especially when Harden takes a breather. We've seen Dwight post up effectively from time-to-time, but it's just not nearly as effective as the pick-and-rolls and alley-oops. Expect to see a few post-ups but a lot more pick-and-rolls from Dwight, whether it's with Harden or even someone else such as Josh Smith.
If he can play his solid defense and get a lot of easy looks without forcing up any bad shots, Dwight will be in full effect in any series matchup. He also needs to knock down his free throws, but we'll get to that later.
Bench Brigade to the Rescue
With the plethora of injuries the Rockets have, the role players will really need to step it up to replace that production.
Houston is forced to trot out two 37-year-old point guards with Beverley done for the year. Jason Terry is the starter as of now, but he has struggled thus far in the month of April. Not only did Tony Parker rip him to shreds on defense in their matchup, but he's also hitting a wintry 25 percent from deep when that's supposed to be his most reliable quality.
Pablo Prigioni isn't exactly a stalwart defenseman either, and he hasn't been able to hit his outside shot consistently since arriving in Houston. He can run some pick-and-rolls and pick up a few steals here and there in the second unit's pressure defensive style but not much else.
When Harden comes out of the game, typically at the start of the second and fourth quarters, it's crucial that the Rockets can weather the storm each time. Dwight will most likely be out there, but he'll need some help from the rest of the bench brigade.
With guys such as Josh Smith and Corey Brewer coming off the bench, Houston has a stronger second unit than most. It plays aggressive defense and pushes the tempo in transition, even on missed baskets, which makes up for its struggles on offense in the half-court set.
The pace of play typically slows down in the postseason, but the Rockets' second unit won't let that happen. Houston plays with the second-quickest pace in the league, according to ESPN.com, with no intentions of slowing down. The Rockets need Smith, Brewer and the whole clan at their best to maintain leads with the Beard on the bench.
Houston can't let other teams dictate the style of play. The Rockets have to stick to their game plan, put pressure on the ball and force a lot of steals. Unlike last season, Houston can now use its defense as its strength to win a series. I'm not saying the starters don't play defense, but the bench takes it to another level and can really change the pace of the game.
Make Your Free Throws
It's been happening for a while now, and it won't be stopping anytime soon. The Rockets continue to get hacked, sending their awful free-throw-shooting big men to the line.
Dwight Howard: 53 percent
Josh Smith: 51 percent
Joey Dorsey: 27 percent
Clint Capela: 0 percent (zero of 15)
When you have to put in Dwight Howard to have the best chance at making a free throw, you know you're in serious trouble. Opposing coaches are forcing Houston to make its free throws, and it's paying off.
It worked against the Spurs, who continuously sent Smith to the line throughout the third and fourth quarters. He finished 12-of-26 from the line, and as a team, the Rockets went 32-of-53, good for 60 percent. They missed 21 free throws and lost by one point.
Houston can't afford these types of losses in the playoffs. Kevin McHale and his staff can do their best at keeping some of these guys off the floor when in the bonus, but at the end of the day, it's going to come down to making your free throws.
Whether an NBA rule change is down the road or not, it won't come into effect during this year's playoffs, so making your foul shots is the only option. Start practicing now, because there's no doubt teams will start hacking once they get in the penalty versus the Rockets.
It's not just free throws either. The Rockets continue to launch threes at an unprecedented rate, shattering the previous record. Teams live and die by the three ball, and since the whole purpose of the article is about how the Rockets can "live," it's worth mentioning that they need to hit their threes.
Harden, Smith and especially Ariza have been heating up from deep lately. Terry and Prigioni need to join them, and it also couldn't hurt if Terrence Jones could hit a couple every now and then to keep the defense honest.
We've waited all season long for this year's playoffs. The Rockets were underrated throughout the season, continuously proving people wrong despite an unforeseeable wrath of injuries.
Unfortunately, they've stumbled just a bit in the crowded West thanks to a pair of losses late in the season to the rival Spurs. They may not end up where we hoped they would near the top of the conference, but once the playoffs roll around, all bets are off.
In a conference full of contenders, home-court advantage is nearly irrelevant. It's all about matchups, tough defense and getting hot at the right time, which the Rockets are certainly capable of. If all of these things can fall into place, this could finally be the year Houston makes a legitimately deep run in the postseason.
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