SEC Football: Predicting the Biggest Upsets in the Conference in 2015
We lovers of sports spend copious amounts of time predicting what will happen in any given game. We look at every possible statistic that could sway the game in favor of one team. So many times, the team predicted to win does just that, and our efforts later seem wasted. Why, then, do we do it?
We know that sometimes, the favorite on paper loses.
In the SEC, there's a gap between the best and the rest, but it's not as wide as in most other conferences. Just last season, nine of 14 SEC schools were ranked in the AP poll at some point. But there's still a gap.
Since the season isn't yet upon us, we don't know how the conference will play out, but we can use the past to predict the future. We can look at trends, and we can look at what's already been predicted for the upcoming season. That's what I've done today to determine which SEC games are the most likely to be won by the underdog.
I've ordered the slides chronologically, beginning with the earliest game. I've also taken this composite preseason poll into account when determining what would qualify as an upset.
The beauty of a deep league is that there will be so many more upsets than these. Have I missed any? Please share your own views in the comments section below.
Kentucky over South Carolina
1 of 6
Saturday, Sep. 12
Kentucky upset South Carolina by seven points in 2014, and this season, the margin of victory could be higher.
At this point in the season, the Gamecocks won't have gotten used to playing with their new-look offense. If the Wildcats can shut down Pharoh Cooper, which is indeed a tough task, then they'll be in command.
Patrick Towles wasn't great in 2014, but he's one of the more experienced quarterbacks returning to the SEC. Since Towles isn't the clear starter heading into the season, as he's in a competition with hyped Drew Barker for that role, he'll have to play better to keep his job. That can only mean good things for Kentucky.
Neither team is expected to do much in the SEC, but South Carolina should be the home favorite in this contest: a contest they will lose.
Tennessee over Alabama
2 of 6
Saturday, Oct. 24
Recently, the rivalry between Alabama and Tennessee has lost national significance, but it's coming back.
The Crimson Tide have won every meeting since 2007, but that streak will end in 2015. Why?
Tennessee returns virtually everyone from what was the youngest roster in the country in 2014. Alabama, meanwhile, must replace so many of its stars, especially Heisman runner-up Amari Cooper and quarterback Blake Sims. Sure, the Crimson Tide have the talent to win every game on their schedule, and they probably have more blue-chippers than the Volunteers, but they have to establish a new identity. Tennessee, meanwhile, can build on what was established last season.
Last season, Alabama won, but only by 14 points. Considering the Crimson Tide finished the regular season as the top team in the country, that's a solid showing from the guys in orange.
This season, Tennessee will take the next step toward again becoming a player in the SEC.
Florida over Georgia
3 of 6
Saturday, Oct. 31
Happy Halloween, Georgia: Your worst nightmare of losing to Florida will come true.
The Gators actually chomped the Bulldogs last season by 18 points. That day, Florida ran the ball 60 times for 418 yards. With Jim McElwain running the show now, don't expect so much damage to come from the ground game, but Florida will have a more dangerous overall offense.
Georgia is hoping to return to the SEC Championship Game this season, after seeing Missouri represent the East division in the last two, but a Florida victory could take it away again.
As offensive coordinator of Alabama, McElwain was partially responsible for making Tim Tebow cry on national TV. Though a victory over Georgia wouldn't be enough for Gators fans to completely forgive McElwain, they'll appreciate the gesture.
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Arkansas over Ole Miss
4 of 6
Saturday, Nov. 7
Arkansas blanked Ole Miss, 30-0, at home in 2014. That won't happen again in 2015, but the Razorbacks will win the game.
The return of Laquon Treadwell for the Rebels, as well as the departures of a trio of defensive gems for the Razorbacks, will prevent this season's matchup from being so one-sided. With that said, the Razorbacks return so much of their offense that they could score more points this time around.
Considering how badly Arkansas beat Ole Miss in 2014, and the upward trajectory of the program, you might not call another Razorbacks victory an upset. It would be one numerically, though, because a borderline top-25 squad would defeat one looking to start the season in the top 10.
Mississippi State over Ole Miss
5 of 6
Saturday, Nov. 28
For the first time in a while, last season, the Egg Bowl meant more than just bragging rights in Mississippi. Both schools were ranked in the Top 25 of the AP poll, during the game, for the first time since 1999. Ole Miss pulled off the upset, forcing Mississippi State out of the College Football Playoff, and the Bulldogs will do that to the Rebels this time.
Mississippi State hasn't lost this game on home turf since 2003, and the trend will continue. The Bulldogs have Dak Prescott, one of the nation's finest returning quarterbacks, and he'll find it easier to throw into a pass defense that lost two All-Americans in the offseason. Also, the Rebels remain the favorite despite this, but the desire for Prescott to win his final home game will be too great.
In Laquon Treadwell, Laremy Tunsil, Robert Nkemdiche and Evan Engram, Ole Miss might have the four best players at their respective positions in the conference, but the conference's best quarterback in Prescott will make the difference.
If I'm so high on the Bulldogs in this game, then why is it such an upset? Well, when the polls come out, expect Ole Miss to be a College Football Playoff contender and Mississippi State to be merely a top-25 contender.
Texas A&M over LSU
6 of 6
Saturday, Nov. 28
John Chavis knows a bit about LSU football. After all, he was the defensive coordinator there from 2009 to 2014. Chavis will use that knowledge of the program, now as defensive coordinator of Texas A&M, to defeat his old employer in 2015.
LSU lost five games in 2014, but it wasn't the defense's fault; thanks to Chavis, the Tigers finished with the nation's fifth-rated scoring defense.
The Aggies weren't nearly as good defensively, as they finished with the 78th-rated scoring defense, but they have a piece to build around: Myles Garrett. The rising sophomore enters 2015 as one of the premier pass-rushers in the nation, and when you combine another year in college with Chavis, it's scary to think what he can be.
Of course, LSU has people to watch in this game as well, and Leonard Fournette stands above the rest. Fournette, also a rising sophomore, hopes to carry the Tigers offense en route to the 2015 Heisman. He's shown the ability to do it, but against the Aggies, he won't be that shining star.
LSU has won the last four meetings, which have been in consecutive years.
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