The Most Important Free Agent for Oklahoma City Thunder to Land This Offseason
The Oklahoma City Thunder have multiple needs, but one free agent stands out as the clear No. 1 priority for general manager Sam Presti this summer: Enes Kanter.
It would be easy for the Thunder to panic with Kevin Durant’s free agency looming on the horizon. Fortunately, the man running the show has not been the type to overreact. A healthy OKC team is still one of the four or five true contenders in the league, and Presti only needs to fill in around the core instead of blowing it up.
There are more pressing needs than center, but the team’s salary situation and the realistic free-agent options create a setting where Kanter is the clear-cut focus of OKC’s summer plans.
What Does OKC Need?
The Thunder have three major needs to address this offseason: shooting guard, backup small forward and backup center.
| PG | Russell Westbrook | D.J. Augustin |
| SG | Andre Roberson | Dion Waiters, Jeremy Lamb |
| SF | Kevin Durant | Anthony Morrow, Perry Jones |
| PF | Serge Ibaka | Nick Collison, Steve Novak |
| C | Steven Adams | Mitch McGary |
Shooting guard is by far the most troubling spot on the roster. The position has been a weakness since Kevin Martin’s departure, and the current crop makes for a very unappetizing rotation of one-trick ponies. Andre Roberson kills the offense, Jeremy Lamb and Anthony Morrow endanger the defense, and Dion Waiters harms both (his on-ball defense is fine, but he’s slow to recognize rotations and is a poor team defender as a result).
A suitable backup for Durant is another major need. Given the stress-induced nature of his injury, the Thunder should be cautious with his workload next season, and they’ll need a backup who can handle 16 to 20 minutes per game. Neither Morrow nor Perry Jones is equipped to play that many minutes at small forward, so outside help is necessary.
The next need is an extra big—ideally a center—to round out the frontcourt rotation. Mitch McGary and Nick Collison are good for 20 minutes apiece if necessary, but they’re both power forwards, and the high foul rates of the duo (plus Steven Adams) mean more depth is needed:
| Serge Ibaka | 3.3 |
| Steven Adams | 4.6 |
| Nick Collison | 5.1 |
| Mitch McGary | 5.4 |
If the Thunder could address all three of these needs, they’d no doubt be the favorite to lift the championship trophy next season. Unfortunately, the salary cap prevents them from achieving that feat.
Limited Financial Flexibility
As currently constructed, the Thunder don’t even have the cap room to pursue the middle tier of free agents:
| Kevin Durant | $21,221,850 |
| Russell Westbrook | $16,744,218 |
| Serge Ibaka | $12,250,000 |
| Dion Waiters | $5,138,430 |
| Steve Novak | $3,750,000 |
| Nick Collison** | $3,750,000** |
| Anthony Morrow | $3,344,000 |
| Jeremy Lamb | $3,034,356 |
| D.J. Augustin | $3,000,000 |
| Steven Adams | $2,279,040 |
| Andre Roberson | $2,183,072 |
| Perry Jones | $2,038,206 |
| Mitch McGary | $1,463,040 |
The projected salary cap for the 2015-16 season is $66.5 million with a luxury-tax threshold of $81 million according to Larry Coon, author of the CBA FAQ.
As you can see from the table, OKC is already pushing up against the tax, so it’ll have to use its mid-level exception to sign any free agents. That leaves Presti only $3.376 million to work with according to Coon. That’s not very much money at all, and it depresses the quality of free agents OKC can sign.
Fortunately for Thunder fans, Presti can exceed that small sliver of money in negotiations with Kanter. OKC holds Kanter’s Bird rights, which means it can go over the cap to re-sign him. Of course, even if it complies with league rules, the owner must be willing to pay the luxury tax for the second consecutive season (OKC will pay the tax this year).
The Thunder can re-sign Kanter and use that mid-level exception to bring in another free agent, but ownership will again need to sign off on that expense, and there may not be enough roster space to do so if the Thunder want to promote Josh Huestis to the active roster or sign a draft pick.
Potential Free-Agent Options
We know what the Thunder need and how much money they have to spend, so what are the realistic expectations for free agency? There are a number of shooting guards (Jimmy Butler, Wesley Matthews, Danny Green, Khris Middleton) who would single-handedly take OKC to the next level, but they’ll command way more than OKC can offer.
For the $3.376 million Presti has at his disposal, the pickings are very slim (and are broken down in my free-agency big board).
In that price range, OKC will have to look at players such as Jared Dudley, Alan Anderson, Mike Dunleavy Jr., Will Barton and Justin Holiday (Dudley will most likely command more than $3 million anyway).
They could help (Dunleavy in particular), but none of them come close to matching Kanter’s skill level or production.
Kanter is Priority No. 1
With the monetary restrictions, Kanter is by far the best player OKC can legally sign this summer. Though he has serious shortcomings on defense, the Thunder are positioned to compensate for them. Serge Ibaka can cover for his mistakes, and head coach Scott Brooks can roll with the Ibaka-Adams frontcourt in matchups where his defense is an extreme liability.
Moreover, Kanter’s offense is legitimately good enough to keep him on the court. He’s a real threat on the block, which gives Coach Brooks an extra option when the offense bogs down. Getting the ball to Kanter in the post is one way to facilitate the ball movement so many Thunder fans have been calling for. If teams double-team him, he’s a skilled and aware passer capable of picking out the open man.
His numbers (18.0 points, 11.3 rebounds) are inflated by the absence of Ibaka and Durant at the moment, but the efficiency is real (55 percent from the floor and 78 percent from the line).
Kanter is not only the best player OKC can feasibly sign this summer. He’s also a great fit on the roster and gives the Thunder a newfound dimension on offense. For that reason, he’s their big fish this offseason.
Note: All salary information is from HoopsHype. All statistics are accurate as of April 9 and are from Basketball-Reference unless otherwise noted.
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