Resetting Expectation Levels for 2014-15's Top NBA Rookies
It takes years for the true identity of an NBA draft class to surface.
But this season's crop of first-year hoopers has already hinted at everything that lies ahead: some good, some bad, some still-as-mysterious-as-it-was-last-summer.
While it's still too early to lay any basements or set any ceilings, we have some NBA data to help make our educated guesses. When we drool over Andrew Wiggins' potential or worry about Dante Exum's wavering aggressiveness, there are reasons behind those reactions.
And it's those reasons that now help us fine-tune our expectations for the Association's freshmen. Performance and production obviously play major parts in making these calls, so we are relying on both the stat sheet and the always reliable eye test to help plot the future of these blossoming ballers.
Higher Risks, Lower Rewards Than We Thought
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Sacramento Kings guard Nik Stauskas has had two signature moments at the NBA level, neither of which occurred inside the lines: A high schooler landed enough Twitter support to take his girlfriend to prom, and a closed-captioning provider inadvertently created the nickname "Sauce Castillo."
As sad as this sounds, Stauskas might hope that's what shows up on the back of his basketball card. If not, the focus will fall on the supposed sharpshooter's struggles in the one area in which he was expected to dominate.
Through 69 games, he's converting just 36.3 percent of his field goals and 31.1 percent of his long-range looks. As a sophomore at Michigan last season, those shooting marks were 47.0 and 44.2, respectively.
"Every player has that transition when they come in the NBA as a rookie, and it's the same coming from high school into college," Stauskas said, via Ron Beard of The Detroit News. "You have to take a step back and find your role on the team and find your strengths and weaknesses. That's what I've had to do. It's been humbling, to be honest."
The Kings might have been hoping for an immediate impact from the 21-year-old, but Stauskas is clearly a work in progress.
Ditto for the Minnesota Timberwolves' Adreian Payne (41.8 percent shooting) and the Miami Heat's Shabazz Napier (38.2 percent), two players who look uncomfortably raw for having spent four seasons in the college ranks.
Doug McDermott, who had a historically productive four-year career at Creighton, has also struggled with his transition to the big leagues (.402/.317/.667 shooting slash). But the Chicago Bulls' scoring forward gets somewhat of a pass, as his development has been delayed by knee surgery and a crowded rotation.
The Wild Cards
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Dante Exum might have been the fifth overall selection, but the lanky 19-year-old was still a project pick. That label also fit the likes of Aaron Gordon, Zach LaVine and Noah Vonleh.
Little has changed since NBA commissioner Adam Silver first called their names at the draft. Nearly a full season into their pro careers, they still need copious amounts of polish.
Exum has been the ideal fit to head the Utah Jazz's transformation into a defensive power thanks in no small part to his 6'6" frame and hawkish 6'9.25" wingspan, according to DraftExpress. The Jazz allow 7.3 points per 100 possessions fewer with him than they do without him.
But the opposite end has been a grind for him. The shooting concerns that followed Exum into the league haven't left (.349/.319/.625 slash line). More worrisome, though, has been his hesitation to utilize his elite athleticism. He only averages 0.7 free-throw attempts per 36 minutes, and just 12.7 percent of his shots come within three feet of the basket.
"Exum this offseason must grow up and gain the confidence to hit the throttle—hard," Gordon Monson wrote for The Salt Lake Tribune. "He's got the dragster under him. Now he needs the attitude, the nerve."
Gordon does a little bit of everything but is still carving out his niche. Losing 31 games to a fractured foot didn't help.
He can be a valuable glue guy, but the Orlando Magic need more than that after using the fourth overall pick to get him. Supplementing his athleticism with more polished skills (shooting, post scoring) could blow the top off of his ceiling.
LaVine is a regular on the highlight-reel circuit but he needs to be more than a dunk artist. If he's going to be a shooting guard, his shooting needs work (41.9 percent from the field, 32.6 from distance). If point guard is his NBA calling, he needs to improve his 1.36 assist-to-turnover ratio (82nd out of 86 qualified players), according to ESPN.com.
Vonleh simply needs more seasoning; he's only played 21 games for the Charlotte Hornets.
Impact Reserves
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Every fanbase hopes to leave draft night with a future star. But a lot of teams are happy if they can simply walk away with an effective role player.
The Phoenix Suns appear to have done just that with scoring forward T.J. Warren, Utah scratched its itch for shooting with marksman Rodney Hood and the Oklahoma City Thunder bolstered their interior with the bruising Mitch McGary.
It's a been a season of sweeping changes for the Suns—Goran Dragic, Isaiah Thomas, Miles Plumlee and Tyler Ennis out; Brandon Knight and Brandan Wright in—and Warren had to wait for the dust to settle before his number was called. Through the team's first 50 games, he made only 15 appearances.
But the former North Carolina State star has started forcing his way into coach Jeff Hornacek's rotation. Warren has seen action in 15 of Phoenix's last 16 contests, averaging 8.7 points on 60 percent shooting during this stretch. His lack of a three-point shot limits his upside, but his hustle and creativity in getting to the basket should net him a permanent reserve role moving forward.
Hood has long been viewed as a scorer and has lived up to that reputation—in a good way. Injuries slowed his start, but lately he's been attacking like he's making up for lost time. He has poured in 17 points or better in seven of his last 13 games, cracking the 20-point barrier four times over that stretch.
"I learned a lot in my time off," Hood said, via Ryan McDonald of the Deseret News. "I’ve just been trying to learn the whole entire year. Now that my body’s there, my game’s taking off right now."
Hood could grow out of a sixth-man spot, but with Gordon Hayward and Alec Burks around, that looks like the role Utah needs him to fill.
McGary simply makes things happen. He plays within his limits (read: takes good shots) and ferociously attacks the glass. The Thunder will need that energy off the bench, as Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams (or Enes Kanter) should man the starting frontcourt spots for the foreseeable future.
Solid Starters
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This label might be seen as a slight. Some fans—particularly those of the Orlando Magic, Los Angeles Lakers, Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets, respectively—won't be happy with the assertion that annual All-Star appearances won't be made by Elfrid Payton, Jordan Clarkson, Marcus Smart and Jusuf Nurkic.
It's possible that could happen for any (or each) of the four. But we're more comfortable buying this quartet as long-term starters, which is more of a compliment than it sounds.
Payton is unbelievably crafty with the basketball. Grantland's Zach Lowe called Payton "irresistible, a preternatural basketball genius with rare vision, a tricky arrhythmic dribble and hair that blows in the wind when he sprints up the court."
We can debate the quality of Payton's lettuce, but there's no denying his gift for passing and nose for the glass. He's a nightly triple-double threat—he has two already—and a relentless defender. But the fact that he rarely takes (and hardly ever makes) triples could mean that consistent scoring will always be a struggle.
Smart is a bulldog defender, willing passer and tenacious rebounder. His ability to impact the game in so many different ways should make him a fixture in Boston's opening lineup for years to come. But his three-point shooting has to improve (33.1 percent), and he can't keep settling for outside shots.
Clarkson has the fourth-highest scoring average among first-year players at 11.4 points per game. The rest of his stat sheet is sufficiently filled with 3.3 assists, 3.2 rebounds and a 44.6 field-goal percentage. If those numbers don't jump off your screen, remember that he's only playing 24.1 minutes per game.
But stats can be tough to evalute on a bad team, and the Lakers certainly fit that bill. L.A.'s situation must improve before anyone gets a solid grasp on Clarkson's ceiling, but his basement is rising by the second.
Nurkic might be walking double-double, but only if he's able to stay on the floor. His per-36-minute marks are almost all encouraging (13.7 points, 12.3 rebounds, 2.3 blocks), except for those unsightly 6.6 personal fouls. He should be a solid two-way anchor down the line but has to get better at defending without fouling and improve his shot selection first.
Future Stars
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The NBA's All-Star ranks will be growing soon. Between Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Nikola Mirotic and Nerlens Noel, this batch of youngsters is littered with superstar potential.
Wiggins entered this season as the league's most promising rookie, and the Minnesota Timberwolves' swingman has only strengthened that stance since.
His 16.7-points-per-game average easily paces this class and continues to climb higher. He's put up 19.9 points a night on 44.9 percent shooting in 25 games since the All-Star break. For context, only 13 players in the entire league have cleared those marks this season.
Wiggins has also given the Minnesota Timberwolves steady rebounding from the wing (4.4 per game) and a defensive weapon to unleash on the NBA's best scorers.
"Nothing Wiggins is doing suggests he's about to hit any kind of wall," wrote ESPN Insider David Thorpe. "We are seeing a young player who is impacting games offensively in a variety of ways—with skill, craft and athleticism—that can get even better over time."
But Wiggins isn't the only rising star.
Parker had no trouble posting 12.3 points on 49 percent shooting before a torn ACL prematurely ended his season. Mirotic has stormed out of his shell in the second half, giving the Chicago Bulls 16.2 points and 6.6 rebounds per game since the All-Star break. Noel has a chance to join David Robinson as the only rookies to ever average at least two blocks and 1.5 steals per game (Noel is at 1.9 and 1.8, respectively).
Like all young players, each has areas to improve: consistency for Wiggins, defense for Parker and Mirotic and offense for Noel. But based on everything we've seen so far, all four look like NBA stars in the making.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
