Safest, Riskiest Choices Pittsburgh Steelers Might Consider in 2015 NFL Draft
Safe is a relative term when it comes to the NFL draft. Every selection carries an inherent risk, so it is up to general manager Kevin Colbert to determine which prospects are worth it and which aren’t for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Over the past few months, Colbert and head coach Mike Tomlin have spent countless hours scouting the prospects who may join the Steelers on draft day. As they prepare their final draft board, this tandem must consider whether to play it safe or take a risk with their selections.
A safe pick is generally one whom scouts believe will have success at the NFL. These prospects have strong workout numbers that are matched by their film. Not only are these players productive at the collegiate level, but they have a high football IQ and skill set that translates to the NFL.
"Safest pick in the draft definition: "Everyone else likes him, so if he stinks, It wasn't my evaluation, it was the player."
— Louis Riddick (@LRiddickESPN) April 7, 2015
"
By comparison, prospects who carry a risk could be missing any of those qualities. Whether it is the lack of football instincts, underwhelming athleticism or the absence of production, something is missing. In some situations, the risk factor has nothing to do with a player’s performance or abilities but rather red flags.
Character issues, legal problems or injury red flags are all signals that will cause a team to step back and take a second or third look at a prospect. Talent matters in the NFL, but not if a player is going to develop into a headache for the franchise—or not develop at all.
The Steelers are traditionally a conservative franchise, but a gamble in the draft could help solidify them into a legitimate contender in 2015. Here is a look at the safest and riskiest prospects Pittsburgh will consider early in the draft.
Safe: Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
1 of 6
Despite the need, the Steelers have avoided drafting a cornerback in the first round. That may change with the talent available in this year’s draft.
When it comes time for the Steelers to draft with the 22nd selection, one name they will consider is Kevin Johnson, who is considered one of the top cornerbacks in the draft.
"I believe Peters & Kevin Johnson (Wake Forest) are the most polished corners in '15 class. Both can play within any system as CB or Slot CB
— Bucky Brooks (@BuckyBrooks) April 2, 2015 "
Bucky Brooks of NFL Media is one of many draft experts who believe that Johnson is at or near the top of the list when it comes to corners. Another is Louis Riddick of ESPN, who likes “everything” about Johnson.
The Steelers sent representatives to watch him at Wake Forest’s pro day. He then dined with Colbert, per Aaron Wilson of The Baltimore Sun. There is definitely interest from Pittsburgh, and it is easy to understand why.
Johnson has decent size (6’0” and 188 pounds) and speed (4.52 40-yard dash) and is one of the most refined cornerback prospects in the draft. He has experience matching up against No. 1 receivers and only allowed 24 receptions last season.
With three years of starting experience and the skills necessary for a quality cover man, Johnson is not only a top prospect but one of the safest options for Pittsburgh in the first round. If he's not a starter in Year 1, he will be one of the top cornerbacks on the roster early in his career.
Risky: Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
2 of 6
Jalen Collins is one of the most physically gifted athletes in the 2015 NFL draft. He has outstanding size at 6’1” and 203 pounds, ran the 40-yard dash in 4.48 seconds and has long arms (32 ⅛"). What isn’t there to like about a cornerback with those characteristics?
How about the fact that he only started 10 games while at LSU? How could a prospect with so much athletic ability only manage 10 starts in a college career? It likely came down to inconsistent play.
Lance Zierlein of NFL.com wrote that Collins “plays with talent over technique” and called him a “work in progress.”
However, when he is on the field, Collins has shown that he can perform at a high level. He started seven games last season and led LSU with 10 passes defensed and allowed just over 35 percent of his targets to result in completions.
Although Collins has a high ceiling—maybe the highest of any cornerback in the entire draft—his lack of experience and technique is a concern. With a patient approach to his development, the Steelers could have the most talented corner in the draft.
However, with their lack of success developing cornerbacks, the Steelers would take a risk by selecting a cornerback as unrefined as Collins is. They may decide that he is a risk worth taking, but they will have to live with the consequences—good or bad.
Safe: Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska
3 of 6
Yes, you read that correctly. Randy Gregory, the same player who failed a drug test at the NFL Scouting Combine, is a safe prospect.
Gregory already admitted his mistake and took ownership of it, via Kimberly Jones of NFL Media. "I blame myself," Gregory said. "And I know it sounds cliche, but there's really no one else I can blame.
"I want people to really understand that I know I made a mistake, for one," Gregory said. "That I knew what I had coming up (the combine), and I still made that mistake. That was dumb.”
Dumb is an understatement, but not one that the Steelers haven’t experienced before. Mike Adams also tested positive for marijuana at the combine, yet Pittsburgh still drafted him in the second round. Gregory is a much better prospect than Adams, so it is possible that Colbert considers him if he slips in the first round.
So why is Gregory not a risk? It’s because he already made a mistake and has an opportunity to learn and grow from it. Moreover, teams never know when a player is going to get busted for drugs—ahem, Le’Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount last summer.
At 6’5” and 235 pounds, Gregory could afford to add an additional 15 to 20 pounds, but that can come through a strength and conditioning program. The real interest in him is not his size but rather his ability as a pass-rusher.
Gregory has the change-of-direction skills and good hand usage to excel in the NFL. He will need to continue to develop his pass-rushing moves, but the talent is there. Dane Brugler of CBSSports.com believes he can become a top player: “With the same combination of length and explosiveness to terrorize quarterbacks, Gregory has elite potential.”
Some teams will shy away from Gregory given his red flags, but if this top-10 talent falls to the Steelers, they have to pounce on him.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Risky: Alvin Dupree, OLB, Kentucky
4 of 6
Athletic edge defenders are in vogue in the NFL, and Alvin Dupree is no exception. Outstanding workout numbers at the combine put him on the map, and he will be in play for the Steelers at No. 22 in the draft.
Unlike Gregory, Dupree does not have any red flags and was a team captain last year. His combination of size and athleticism is off the charts. He is 6’4”, 269 pounds, yet he ran a 4.56 40-yard dash, with a 42-inch vertical and 138-inch broad jump.
Despite his athleticism, Dupree is a risk factor in the draft because his production did not match his pure physical abilities. He should have dominated in college, but he only put up average numbers. In 45 games, he had 23.5 sacks—including 7.5 last season—and 36 tackles for a loss.
Dupree’s lack of production was highlighted by Pro Football Focus’ college data. In an examination of edge defenders, Dupree ranked 21st in pass-rushing productivity (PRP) and was outside of the top 20 in third-down PRP and run-stop percentage.
Although part of this could be attributed to his development process, some scouts question his football instincts, according to Lance Zierlein of NFL.com.
That shouldn’t stop the Steelers from considering him in the first round. Dupree has elite athletic traits that any defensive coordinator would dream of. He will need the proper coaching to maximize his talent; if he gets it, he could develop into a dominant defender.
Safe: DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
5 of 6
A wide receiving corps of Antonio Brown, Markus Wheaton, Martavis Bryant and DeVante Parker? It seems like a far-fetched idea, but not one out of the realm of possibility.
Parker would be quite a curveball from Colbert and company, but one that would help make an already good offense even better. Although it seems unlikely, the Steelers have expressed interest, as the team met with Parker back in March.
On the surface, the Steelers seem set at wide receiver, but there is always room for improvement. At 6’3” and 209 pounds, Parker could develop into an excellent No. 2 option for Ben Roethlisberger.
Despite missing seven games last season, Parker still made 43 receptions for 855 yards and five touchdowns en route to a second-team All-ACC selection. After Parker had a strong performance in his offseason workouts, Daniel Jeremiah of NFL Media believes that Parker is in contention to be the top receiver in the draft, via Bryan Fischer of NFL.com.
As we saw last season, Bryant developed into a dangerous threat with his size and ability to play the ball in the air, but he is a work in progress. By comparison, Parker has terrific ball skills, according to Lance Zierlein of NFL.com: “Parker does his best work when the ball is in the air. He uses his height and wingspan to consistently snatch anything that comes his way.”
Parker wouldn’t provide the help that the Steelers need on defense, but he is an immediate-impact player who would compete for a starting job on offense. His presence in the lineup could mean the difference between a top-10 scoring offense and a top-five one next year.
Risky: Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
6 of 6
Marcus Peters is one of the most talented players in the draft, yet he may fall out of the first round because of off-the-field issues.
Peters’ red flags are a result of being dismissed from his college team and his association with Marshawn Lynch. However, he has seemed to have learned from his mistakes and is ready to move forward.
Time away from football was a learning experience for Peters. His father explained what his son took away from his suspension, via Tom Pelissero of USA Today.
"He owned up to a lot of things," Michael Peters said. "He had a lot of time to think about it. Taking football away from him hurt him. Just coming home, getting settled back down, being around his kid—now he knows he's playing for a whole lot more than just himself.”
Everything from Peters in the offseason process has gone well so far, but the Steelers must get all of the info they can. As Jim Wexell of Steel City Insider tweeted, the Steelers have a strong connection to the University of Washington:
"If anyone knows the right people at UW to provide real info on Marcus Peters, it's Mark Bruener, who was there scouting for the Steelers.
— James C Wexell (@jimwexell) April 3, 2015
"
When it comes to on-field talent, Peters is a top-notch prospect. He is big and physical and has the ability to make plays on the ball. He has the talent and the demeanor to take away half of the field as a shutdown cornerback, but he needs to prove that he is a team player.
Problems with Washington’s coaching staff and immaturity issues will not cut it for a team like the Steelers. As Lance Zierlein of NFL.com put it, he's “overly emotional and prone to mental mistakes because of it.”
If Peters can overcome these issues, he should be one of the top prospects on Pittsburgh’s draft board. However, his track record is a concern, and the Steelers do not want to ruin their chemistry with a negative presence from their top draft choice.
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all stats are courtesy of Sports-Reference.com, all combine results are courtesy of the NFL.com Draft Tracker, all draft rankings are courtesy of Matt Miller of Bleacher Report, and all roster information is courtesy of Steelers.com.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
