Who Are the Experts Predicting to 49ers in the 1st Round of the NFL Draft?

The San Francisco 49ers will pick higher in Round 1 this year than they’ve picked since 2011.

In 2011, they picked seventh and got Aldon Smith, an elite player. Since then, the Niners have picked toward the end of the first round, so they've missed out on most elite prospects, although in 2013 the Niners traded up to pick No. 18 to get Eric Reid, who may or may not be elite. It’s too early to tell.

Last year, the 49ers picked 30th and got small-school safety prospect Jimmie Ward. Most draft experts considered Ward a second-round pick before the Niners took him in Round 1.

This year, the 49ers pick 15th. Finally, they get to draft another elite prospect. But the draft experts can’t agree on which elite prospect the Niners will pick. The experts are all over the place when it comes to the Niners' first-round pick.

Here are some of the players the experts expect the Niners to take in Round 1.

Arik Armstead, Defensive End, University of Oregon

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Bucky Brooks of NFL.com predicts the 49ers will draft Arik Armstead.

Brooks’ analysis: “With Justin Smith contemplating retirement, Armstead could be viewed as the perfect replacement along the line. His size and length makes him an ideal 5-technique in the 49ers’ scheme.”

Cohn’s analysis: Brooks is correct that Armstead’s size and length makes him an ideal 5-technique for the 49ers, but Brooks is incorrect that Armstead is the perfect replacement for Justin Smith. Smith doesn’t play 5-technique. He plays 3-technique. There’s a difference.

The 5-technique lines up directly across from the right tackle and is a run-stopper. The 3-technique lines up between the left tackle and the left guard and is a pass-rusher. Justin Smith is an excellent pass-rusher who was a 4-3 defensive end with the Cincinnati Bengals the first seven seasons of his career.

Smith’s replacement already is on the Niners roster—Tank Carradine. Like Smith, Carradine was a 4-3 defensive end in college, and he is a much better pass-rusher than Armstead.

If the Niners want a run-stuffer in Round 1, Armstead would be a good option but not the best.

La’el Collins, G, Lousiana State University

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Charles Davis of NFL.com thinks the Niners will draft La’el Collins.

Davis’ analysis: “Whether he plays G or OT, he’s an absolute force. Could easily replace Mike Iupati at guard, and power runs stay in the playbook.”

Cohn’s analysis: Collins probably can replace Iupati at left guard, but Collins cannot play tackle—not left tackle or right tackle. The Niners like their tackles tall (at least 6’5”)—and long (arms at least 34 inches). Collins isn’t tall or long. He is 6’4”, and his arms are 33 ¼ inches, per NFL.com. He doesn't have the reach to contend with NFL defensive ends. He would play guard for the Niners.

Why would the Niners spend the 15th pick on someone who can only play guard when they can get a bigger, stronger guard in later rounds? Collins bench-pressed 225 pounds only 21 times at the combine, per NFL.com, making him one of the weakest guards in the draft.

The 49ers probably would be more interested in Jeremiah Poutasi, whom experts expect to get picked on Day 3. Poutasi is 6’5”, weighs 335 pounds, has 33 ⅞-inch arms and bench-pressed 225 pounds 26 times at the combine, per NFL.com. He is a year younger than Collins.

Randy Gregory, OLB, University of Nebraska

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Dane Brugler of CBSSports.com has Randy Gregory going to the Niners.

Brugler’s analysis: “With his issues going well beyond one failed drug test, Gregory could easily fall on draft day. The 49ers have shown in the past they aren’t shy about taking chances on talented players who might have a few issues.”

Cohn’s analysis: The Niners definitely aren’t shy about taking players with off-field issues, but they might have an issue with Gregory’s weight.

The Niners have to like Gregory’s 34-inch arms and 17 ½ sacks in two seasons at Nebraska, but they probably don't like his slim build. He weighs only 235 pounds, per NFL.com. Forty-Niners general manager Trent Baalke has never drafted an outside linebacker who weighs less than 245 pounds.

The Niners outside linebackers typically weigh between 250 pounds and 270 pounds, meaning Gregory has to gain an additional 15 pounds before he can play outside linebacker for the Niners. Until he gains those 15 pounds, he can play only defensive end in the 49ers’ sub-packages—the nickel defense and the dime defense.

Aldon Smith only played defensive end in the 49ers’ sub-packages his rookie season (2011), but he weighed 265 pounds. He didn’t play outside linebacker in the base defense because the Niners already had a veteran run defender at outside linebacker—Parys Haralson. 

Smith pushed Haralson to the bench in 2012. Smith turned out to be a good run defender. Will Gregory be a good run defender, or is he merely a pass-rushing specialist?

Marcus Peters, CB, University of Washington

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Rob Rang of CBSSports.com thinks the 49ers will draft Marcus Peters.

Rang’s analysis: “If not for character red flags, Peters would rank as the top cornerback in this class. The solidly built 6-foot, 197-pounder plays with the physicality necessary in the NFC West and has very good hands. The 49ers GM, Trent Baalke, attended the University of Washington's pro day April 2 where Peters, an Oakland native, starred.”

Cohn’s analysis: Even with the character flags, Peters probably is the best cornerback in the draft. He’s a better fit for the Niners than the other top-cornerback prospect, Trae Waynes, because Waynes is a press corner who lines up outside. Peters plays press coverage or off-man coverage, and he lines up outside or in the slot. He's versatile. The 49ers want versatile corners who play a variety of coverages.

That doesn't mean the Niners will pick Peters. He fits the Niners defense, but Baalke never has picked a corner before Round 3. He picked Jimmie Ward in the first round last year, but the Niners list him as a strong safety and intend to move him there at some point in his career. Baalke seems to believe he can find good perimeter players (cornerbacks and wide receivers) in the middle rounds of the draft.

Maybe Baalke didn’t attend Washington’s pro day to see Peters. Maybe he went to watch nose tackle Danny Shelton instead.

Danny Shelton, NT, University of Washington

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Charlie Campbell of Walterfootball.com has the Niners taking Danny Shelton.

Campbell’s analysis: “The 49ers lost Ray McDonald and Justin Smith this offseason. Darnell Dockett isn’t a long-term solution to make up for those losses, and San Francisco could use more disruptors on its defensive line.”

Cohn’s analysis: Baalke wants the 49ers strong up the middle, and Shelton is the strongest nose tackle in the draft. Draft expert Lance Zierlein of NFL.com compares Shelton to Vince Wilfork, the five-time Pro-Bowl nose tackle for the New England Patriots.

Shelton isn’t just a run-stopper, though—he has pass-rush moves and was nearly un-blockable in one-on-one pass-rush drills at the Senior Bowl, according to Campbell.

In the 49ers’ sub-packages, one defensive lineman typically lines up in the A-gap (between the center and the guard) and tries to collapse the pocket. McDonald used to do this in the Niners’ sub-packages, but he wasn't very good at it. He weighs only 290 pounds. One offensive linemen can handle him.

Shelton weighs 339 pounds, and he bench-pressed 225 pounds 34 times at the combine, per NFL.com. He must be double-teamed, and no defensive tackle in the draft is better than Shelton at powering though a double-team.

This pick makes sense.