Assembling Houston Rockets' Ideal Playoff Rotation
It's almost that time: The NBA playoffs are quickly approaching, and the Houston Rockets are prepping to make a deep run for the first time in six years since the Yao Ming era.
James Harden and company are currently the second seed out West, but that is subject to change in the final two weeks of the season based on the proximity of the standings. Seeding may not even matter in this cluster of contenders in the Western Conference, but the Rockets will want to finish strong and head into the postseason with a head of steam.
Through injuries and trades, the Rockets' rotation is a lot different from where it started the 2014-15 season. Also keep in mind that the minutes will change somewhat in the postseason because there's no reason to rest your best players. Here's a preview of what the rotation may look like come playoff time for coach Kevin McHale and his staff.
The Starters
Throughout the year, Houston has dealt with a plethora of injuries. Its desired starting lineup coming into this season played a grand total of two games, the first ones of the season. Terrence Jones missed over half the season with nerve damage and a punctured lung, Dwight Howard sat out awhile with an edema in his knee and now Patrick Beverley is done for the season with a fractured wrist.
The ideal starting five won't take the court again for the Rockets, so now the lineup is unclear.
We know James Harden will be out there for tipoff; that's for sure. The Beard is having an MVP season, averaging 27.5 points, 7.0 assists and 5.7 boards per game. He reclaimed the scoring title for the time being from Russell Westbrook and more importantly leads the NBA in win shares, per Basketball-Reference.com
Harden has played more minutes than anyone else this season, averaging 36.9 per game. He typically gets a quick breather at the beginnings of the second and fourth quarters, which causes Rockets fans to hold their breaths.
During the playoffs, Harden's rests will probably have the same timing, but they will come in shorter doses. Houston can't afford to dig a hole to start every final quarter, which means the Beard's minutes could creep up to the lower 40s.
Howard has been on a minutes restriction since his return from injury. He doesn't play over 20 minutes a night and won't participate in back-to-backs. Don't expect that to happen once the regular season comes to a close.
The Rockets need Dwight manning the middle defensively. Houston struggles without its big man in the paint to alter shots and grab boards, including back-to-back games in which the Rockets were out-rebounded by 20 boards, something that had not happened before all season.
However, Dwight isn't entirely in the swing of things. His offensive game still lacks rhythm, especially in the post. The Rockets turn the ball over too much when attempting to pass it to him inside. But he is showing flashes of his old self.
Dwight's minutes will be staggered with Harden's, like they have been ever since he came back, even with his restriction. When the Beard is on the bench, Howard will be on the court. The difference between now and the playoffs is that Dwight will actually close games, even though he hasn't lately, especially if he plays like he did last year against the Portland Trail Blazers.
Right after Harden, Trevor Ariza has played the most minutes in the entire league. He is a crucial part of the rotation, regardless of which team the Rockets are matched up against, because he will undoubtedly be guarding the opposition's best player. McHale will try to get him a rest when he can, but Ariza will be playing close to 45 minutes per game if it's a close series, which is inevitable for the Rockets.
Jason Terry will most likely get the nod at point guard with Bev out for the year. The 37-year-old hasn't been a great contributor lately—probably because he's running out of gas. But the Rockets are 11-1 with Terry in the starting lineup, and even though he's averaging less than 30 minutes per game, he's good for a couple of three-pointers and some veteran leadership every night.
To be honest, I'll admit that I don't know who will be starting at power forward once the playoffs begin. Terrence Jones has been dominant when healthy this year, but Donatas Motiejunas did a stellar job filling in for him while he was out.
Now D-Mo is the one who is out, dealing with some lower back pain, and Jones has been starting since returning from his lung injury. Either one of these guys is capable of playing alongside Dwight in the starting five.
D-Mo should get a slight edge over Jones for the starting power forward role. He is a better three-point shooter, connecting on 45.8 percent of his attempts from deep since the All-Star break. His stretch-4 capability makes him a better fit in the first unit in terms of spacing. This, of course, hinges on his health once he rejoins the lineup, which should be before the regular season's end.
Regardless of who starts, the trio of D-Mo, Jones and Josh Smith at power forward will get ample minutes, and whoever has the hot hand that night will probably be in to close games out.
The Reserves
Originally a weakness, the second unit will be a big part of the Rockets' success. With new additions like Smith and Corey Brewer, the Rockets are one of the deeper teams in the West.
The bench brigade's ball pressure and aggressiveness change the pace of any game. While the playoffs usually have a slower, half-court tempo, Houston's second unit will not let that happen. The Rockets play with the second-fastest tempo in the league, which includes a lot of steals and fast-break opportunities.
Brewer is the fastest guy on the court, wreaking havoc in transition. Smith plays on both ends of the position spectrum, getting a block on one end and then leading the fast break on the other. Add in Jones' athleticism and size, and you have one scary unit of second-stringers.
With Beverley out, Pablo Prigioni could see some decent minutes for the Rockets. He may not be the best 37-year-old point guard on the team, but he can facilitate the pick-and-roll well. He's only shooting 25.6 percent from beyond the arc, but that number is creeping up as of late, closer to his career 40 percent average.
Rookie Nick Johnson may get to see a small handful of minutes as well, thanks to point guard injuries (and deficiencies). Despite being undersized, he has proved that he can hold his own defensively due to his freak athleticism.
Joey Dorsey is the only one left with any slight hope of playing time. Dorsey has gotten some chances this year because of the abundance of injuries, but with everyone hopefully healthy in the postseason, his minutes will go down. He's good for six fouls and a big body down low, which McHale may need a couple of times in cases of foul trouble, but that's it.
Kostas Papanikolaou is still hurt, so his playoff chances are slim. Fellow rookie Clint Capela has had a nice stretch in the past slate of games, but he won't see the floor unless the Rockets are in serious trouble. The same goes for fellow freshman K.J. McDaniels.
The second unit will be a big factor for the Rockets. The players who start the game may not be the ones who finish it, depending on how McHale wants to play it against certain teams. He'll ride the hot hand oftentimes or go small to throw off the opponent. Smith's flexibility and Brewer's energy give him plenty of options.
Conclusion
It's not as simple as playing the starters and then subbing in five guys a few minutes later. Finding the perfect rotation will be a significant task for McHale coming into the playoffs, especially considering that he's been missing certain guys all season long.
The staff will carefully have to stagger the minutes of specific players in order to utilize matchups while also not losing too much ground either offensively or defensively.
Harden and Ariza should be in the game as much as possible. Howard should be in every second that the Beard is not, plus D-Mo or Smith, to provide a primary scoring option. Finding this perfect balance is a crucial part of winning games—and ultimately series and championships.
| PG | Terry (21) | Prigioni (12) | Johnson (3) | |
| SG/SF | Harden (38) | Ariza (40) | Brewer (22) | |
| PF | Motiejunas (26) | Jones (22) | Smith (24) | |
| C | Howard (29) | Dorsey (3) |
Here are my estimations for the total minutes of each player once the playoffs begin, assuming each game is close.
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