Who Are the Experts Predicting to NY Giants in the 1st Round of the NFL Draft?
One of the cool things about the NFL draft is that everyone has an opinion regarding what teams should do, which makes for interesting reading in the days leading up to the actual event.
In looking over the various opinions of noted draft analysts from NFL.com, NFL Draft Scout and others listed within these next few slides, there are a variety of opinions about what the New York Giants should do with their first-round pick, No. 9 overall.
Let’s look at what the experts have chosen to be the Giants' first-round pick, and then analyze whether their conclusions make the most sense for the Giants in the first round.
DT Danny Shelton, 6'2", 339 Lbs, Washington
1 of 6
The Pick
DT Danny Shelton, 6'2", 339 lbs, Washington
What They're Saying
"The return of Steve Spagnuolo could prompt GM Jerry Reese to fortify the defensive line by adding a big-bodied defensive tackle with strength, power and athleticism." — NFL.com's Bucky Brooks, March 30 mock draft
"Look at all the strong rushing attacks in the NFC East. The Giants have to find a way to stop them." — NFL.com's Brian Baldinger, March 13 mock draft
"The Giants gave up 4.9 yards per carry and 135.1 rushing yards per game last year and are in a division with three teams looking to run. Shelton's a massive space-eater who can also put pressure on the quarterback up the middle." — CBS Sports' Will Brinson, April 3 mock draft
Analysis
The point made by NFL.com’s Brian Baldinger about putting a big-bodied defender in the middle is a valid one given the rushing attacks the Giants will face twice a year against their NFC East opponents.
However, whether they need to spend the No. 9 pick on a defensive tackle is up for debate. In fact, a more valid argument could probably be made for spending the No. 9 pick on a defensive end, where the picture is less clear.
If the Giants can sign defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul to a long-term contract—and it would be surprising if that happens this year unless Pierre-Paul’s camp buckles under and takes whatever offer the Giants might have on the table.
Dan Graziano of ESPN pointed out in an article last month, the Giants’ management of their cap space hasn’t really hampered them in free agency. Taking that a step further, it’s also not likely to hamper them in the coming months.
According to Over the Cap, the Giants currently have $6,972,313 in cap space—more than enough to sign their incoming draft class.
The true total needed for the draft class will probably be half of that $6.9 million due to the Top 51 rule being where once a new contract is signed, the 51st-lowest cap figure drops out of the mix.
For example, if a rookie’s first-year cap figure is $1 million and he ends up replacing a teammate’s contract that has a cap figure of $500,000, the net change on the Giants’ cap is just $500,000.
If the Giants and Pierre-Paul do indeed gamble on letting him play out his franchise tender, regardless of whether he fails or succeeds, New York would be wise to have a viable option waiting in the wings either way.
That is why it makes more sense for the Giants to draft a defensive end at No. 9 overall than a defensive tackle.
DT Malcolm Brown, 6'2", 319 Lbs, Texas
2 of 6
The Pick
DT Malcolm Brown, 6'2", 319 lbs, Texas
What They're Saying
"The Giants pick one of the best DTs available as they continue to build momentum off of a good finish to 2014 and make a playoff push in 2015." — NFL.com's Charles Davis, March 25 mock draft
Analysis
Malcolm Brown is a very intriguing prospect. However, at No. 9 overall, he doesn’t seem to be a realistic option given the more pressing needs at defensive end and on the offensive line, just to name a couple.
Those who are of the opinion that the Giants should go defensive tackle in this draft have a valid point—besides Johnathan Hankins, there are a lot of question marks.
Cullen Jenkins, who started the last two years, is entering the final year of his contract and is not a lock to reclaim the starting job.
Jay Bromley is, at best, an unknown given the lack of game snaps he had last year as a rookie, though the coaches do have the benefit of watching tape from the practices and might have already determined that Bromley, last year’s third-round pick, is more than ready to take that next step forward in his development.
Markus Kuhn has a great motor, but he just doesn’t play with the level of physicality that teams generally like to see from their defensive tackles. Dominique Hamilton is an unknown entity at this point and Kenrick Ellis is here on a one-year deal.
If Bromley is ready to go—and that is probably the expectation—then the urgency to draft a defensive tackle is lessened to where maybe the Giants look to address the position on Day 3 of the draft.
OT Andrus Peat, 6'7", 313 Lbs, Stanford
3 of 6
The Pick
OT Andrus Peat, 6'7", 313 lbs, Stanford
What They're Saying
"Offensive line coaches around the league love Peat's combination of skills, and the Giants can plug him in at RT and move Pugh inside." — NFL.com's Lance Zierlein, March 26 mock draft
"The Giants need to solidify the OL. Justin Pugh can move to guard." — NFL.com's Charley Casserly, March 15 mock draft
"Andrus Peat has the potential to be the best offensive tackle drafted in 2015 because even as he's an unfinished product, he's already shown he can keep a QB clean for long stretches, and he's capable of dealing with pass-rushing speed on the edge. I think he has the chance to come in right away and compete for the starting job at right tackle and he offers the profile of a future blindside tackle." — ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr., March 5 mock draft
Analysis
While some analysts are convinced that Brandon Scherff could be the guy if the Giants are thinking offensive tackle, others who perhaps believe that Scherff is better suited for guard at the NFL level went with Stanford’s Andrus Peat, a mammoth-sized human who is the third-best offensive tackle on NFL Draft Scout’s prospect board.
The problem with selecting Peat ahead of Scherff (assuming both are still on the board at No. 9), is that Peat, according to Rob Rang of NDS, isn’t quite the run-blocking road grader as is Scherff. Also, given his tall stature, Peat sometimes struggles with keeping proper pad level.
Something to like about Peat is that of the two, he could probably step in at left tackle if down the line the Giants decide that Will Beatty’s play isn’t matching his contract.
Per Over the Cap, this year is the last of Beatty’s contract in which he’s due to receive guaranteed money.
If the Giants decide to go in another direction at left tackle—a big "if" considering last year Beatty was the most solid of the five starting offensive linemen after rebounding from a forgettable 2013 campaign—if they have Peat on the roster, they more than likely have Beatty’s successor.
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OT Brandon Scherff, 6'5", 319 Lbs, Iowa
4 of 6
The Pick
OT Brandon Scherff, 6'5", 319 lbs, Iowa
What They're Saying
"This is a little too high for my taste, but the Giants love to upgrade the trenches with their high draft picks." — NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah, March 18 mock draft
"He's the ultimate tough guy, which makes him an ideal fit for a Tom Coughlin-coached team, and he could either take over the right tackle position for Justin Pugh (who has struggled some at tackle) or provide a major upgrade at left guard... Scherff lacks the ideal length to play the tackle position, and could wind up as an excellent guard instead, but I wouldn't be against him." — ESPN's Todd McShay, March 30 mock draft
"Pretty easy pick, though I have no idea if this is GM Jerry Reese’s man. G-Men need the line to be fortified, and Scherff is the best offensive lineman on everyone’s board." — The MMQB's Peter King, April 1 analysis
"Scherff is a massive road grading tackle who can start right away at RT or perhaps move inside to guard. At the worst, he will open running lanes and allow Giants rushers to gain ground, take time off the clock and keep the defense off the field. With most of the impact edge rushers off the board, this is a solid pick." — NFL Draft Tek, April 1 mock draft
Analysis
There’s no question that the Giants need some more help on their offensive line, where they remain one starter away from having a complete and upgraded unit.
The question is whether that missing starter is a tackle, who could potentially be their next first-round pick, or a guard, who will either come later in the draft or who might even already be on the roster.
The answer, based on what the Giants currently have on the roster, is tackle.
Let’s assume for a minute that Justin Pugh remains as the starting right tackle. The backups on the roster include John Jerry, who last year started at right guard, and Marshall Newhouse, who signed last month as an unrestricted free agent.
If injury should strike Pugh or left tackle Will Beatty, the Giants could very well have a problem. Yes, they’d have a live body to plug in for the injured starter, but per Pro Football Focus, neither Newhouse (minus-3.8) or Jerry (minus-16.4) appear anywhere close to being the road grader the Giants need to help breathe new life into last year’s 23rd-ranked running game.
If the Giants view Brandon Scherff as a tackle and not as a guard, the position that NFL Draft Tek believes is the better fit (likely due to questions about Scherff’s ability to pass-block), it would not be surprising if Scherff is their man at No. 9.
SS Landon Collins, 6'0", 228 Lbs, Alabama
5 of 6
The Pick
SS Landon Collins, 6'0", 228 lbs, Alabama
What They're Saying
"The three players who started at safety for the Giants last season are all no longer on the roster. New York could still elect to re-sign part-time starters Stevie Brown and Quintin Demps (who are still on the market), but at this point have only youngsters Nat Berhe and Cooper Taylor. Collins is the consensus top safety in this class, offering instincts, closing speed and ballskills." — CBS Sports' Rob Rang, March 29 mock draft
Analysis
While it is true that neither Nat Berhe or Cooper Taylor have started an NFL game, the same could be said at one point for the guys they're trying to replace.
A player has to start somewhere, and in Berhe’s case, while his defensive snaps were limited last year—per Pro Football Focus, he played in just 32 defensive snaps—he did finish as the Giants’ leader in special teams tackles and showed glimpses of being ready for that next step.
Berhe, who was a guest on the “Big Blue Chat with Pat and Ed” podcast last month, certainly doesn’t lack in the confidence department.
"I don't mean to toot my own horn here, but I can pretty much play both (safety spots),” he said. “Throughout college I played strong and free and even played a little bit of linebacker."
Getting back to Collins, he is projected as a strong safety, a position for which Berhe and Taylor will probably compete.
The Giants' real need is at free safety, a need they tried to satisfy by pursuing Devin McCourty, who re-signed with New England.
Art Stapleton of The Record believes that New York might still re-sign Stevie Brown, who continues to rehab from offseason foot surgery.
If the Giants are planning to draft a safety, chances are it won't be Collins, nor will it be in the first round.
CB Trae Waynes, 6'0", 186 Lbs, Michigan State
6 of 6
The Pick
CB Trae Waynes, 6'0", 186 lbs, Michigan State
What They're Saying
"The Giants have a chance to draft the top offensive lineman in this class, but if Waynes is still on the board, they'll have a shot at the top cornerback as well. Prince Amukamara, who is a free agent after the 2015 season, has averaged less than nine starts through his first four NFL seasons." — CBS Sports' Dane Brugler, April 6 mock draft
Analysis
Dane Brugler’s analysis is certainly one that goes outside the box.
However, his thinking might very well be flawed, even if teams agree with NFL Draft Scout’s value board, which lists Trae Waynes as its top-rated cornerback in this class.
First, a top-10 draft pick had better be able to start day one, no questions asked, no excuses.
While Brugler is correct that Amukamara is entering the final year of his rookie deal, he will be 26 in June, the prime stage of his career.
There is also no reason to think that Amukamara won’t be 100 percent over his season-ending biceps injury to where he can’t reclaim his starting job.
Last year, Amukamara was on his way to having his best season ever as a pro. Before his injury, he posted a career-high three interceptions.
Based on his 2014 season totals, Amukamara was averaging almost six tackles per game, an increase from the 5.31 tackles per game he averaged the year prior.
If Amukamara had a more serious injury such as to his knee, and was closer to 30, things might be different as far as concerns related to whether he might reclaim his starting job.
There is no reason to spend the No. 9 overall draft pick on a cornerback unless that candidate can also play on the offensive line or at defensive end, where the needs are more pressing.
All quotes and information were obtained firsthand unless otherwise sourced. Patricia Traina covers the Giants for Inside Football, the Journal Inquirer and Sports Xchange.
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