Donatas Motiejunas or Terrence Jones: Who Should Start at PF for Houston Rockets

In short order, the Houston Rockets will be faced with the most pleasant of dilemmas: Who should start at power forward, Terrence Jones or Donatas Motiejunas?

For the bulk of the season, this hasn't been a question they've had to answer, because it hasn't been an option. That's because injuries have made it such that both players and incumbent starting center, Dwight Howard, have all been available only during the first four games of the season.

Jones had a peroneal nerve contusion, which kept him out from Nov. 4 through Jan. 25. But by the time that he got back, Howard was recovering from an arthroscopic knee procedure. Howard remained out until Mar. 25, but when he came back, Jones was out with a collapsed lung. 

On March 23, coach Kevin McHale spoke on the Rocket's plague of injuries, per Jenny Dial Creech of the Houston Chronicle:

"

Of course you want everybody healthy and playing but you can't have that. I would like to have everyone back. I would like to have Dwight back, but the reality is when you are hurt, you can't play. We will have to make do. Trevor is still getting over his sickness and stuff so we aren't in ideal shape but we have to play better.

As I told the guys after the last game, it's how you play when you're on the floor, not who is playing.

"

Then, to add to the fun, Motiejunas was declared out for one to two weeks with back pain on Mar. 27, as reported by Creech.

It looks like McHale may soon get his wish to have everyone healthy and playing. Each of Motiejunas and Jones have a return on the way—two weeks for Motiejunas would be Apr. 10, while Jones is hoping to play Apr. 1 against the Sacramento Kings, according to Creech.

That means that sometime in the next week or two, the Rockets are actually going to have all three bigs available at the same time. So who should start alongside Howard?

Both Motiejunas and Jones have stepped up at times for the Rockets in Howard's absence, and each has started alongside Howard. And, while Jones was the opening-night starter, Motiejunas has performed well in Jones' absence.

Jones is averaging 12.4 points, 7.3 rebounds and 0.8 assists. Motiejunas has averages of 12.0, 5.9 and 1.8. So, statistically, they're very similar.

Sometimes, though, a look beneath the surface makes decisions simpler, and, in this case, it makes the decision downright easy.

I looked at the starter/bench splits for each player. First, here's how they stack up in basic box score numbers when they start:

Furthermore, per RealGM.com, Jones boasts a player efficiency rating (PER) of 20.8 when starting compared to Motiejunas' 14.3

So pretty much every measure—traditional stats, advanced stats and metrics—has Jones as the superior starter.

The debate gets even easier, though, when you look at the splits when the two are coming off the bench:

When Jones comes off the bench, his PER drops to 12.1 while Motiejunas climbs to 14.5.  

So, at least from a statistical standpoint, this becomes a laughably easy choice. Jones is the better starter and Motiejunas is a superior bench player, so unless there's some compelling reason—such as fit—to say otherwise, Jones should start and Motiejunas should come off the bench.

I looked at fit and how each player performed with the other frontcourt counterparts: Howard and forward Josh Smith.

While both pairings that include Jones do better than the ones that include Motiejunas, Jones plays better when he's with Howard, and Motiejunas is more adept when he's paired with Smith.

There's a logical sense to that. Motiejunas is a true 7-footer, so the center position suits him better. Jones has shown that he can play there, too, but with Smith already being an undersized 4, it's probably better to not go small at both positions, and Jones is only 6'9".                                     

Then there's the eye test. Howard and Jones have chemistry together:

As do Smith and Motiejunas.

It's not very often that the splits offer such a clear-cut picture, but by an angle, it looks like Jones is the easy choice to be the starter—not just because he's the better choice in the starting lineup, but also because Motiejunas is so much better than Jones coming off the bench.

For McHale, who has had to juggle an assortment of injured lineups all season long, the toughest choice he'll have to make is whether he wants to see Jones dominating with the starters or Motiejunas running roughshod over the competition with the reserves. With the playoffs just around the corner, there could be far worse things to worry about.