College Football Recruiting 'Busts' Who Can Salvage Career Next Season
Recruiting rankings matter. This is proved scientifically—with numbers. But that doesn't make the rankings an exact science.
Every class still has busts.
However, for highly ranked recruits who start slow at the college level, it's never too late to turn things around. Talent always stands a chance of winning out. And even if it doesn't, it was worth hoping it might.
The hardest part of writing this article was not deciding which busts might salvage their careers; it was defining what the term "bust" even means. The below criteria gave us the fairest results:
- Player was a Top 60 recruit on the 247Sports composite rankings.
- Player left high school at least three seasons ago.
- Player has had a fair chance to produce at the college level.
- Player has failed to perform like a blue-chip prospect.
Those last two points are obviously subjective.
Point 3, we'll on the following slide. Point 4 comes down to personal judgement. But again, even though each player on this list earned the "bust" title, they also have the talent to shake it.
That's why they're here in the first place.
Too Soon to Call Them 'Busts'
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The following list of players, each of whom received a Top 60 ranking in high school, have not produced like blue-chip recruits in college.
Despite that, calling them "busts" felt inaccurate.
Some have ridden the bench behind All-Conference players. Others have been beset by injuries or off-field issues. And others—potential future "busts" from the 2013 recruiting class—have only played two years at the college level.
Each deserves (at least) another year before we label them.
Roadblocked by Quality Competition
- WR Chris Black, Alabama
- LB Noor Davis, Stanford
Terrific When Healthy; Derailed by Injuries
- RB Keith Marshall, Georgia
- WR Malcolm Mitchell, Georgia
- CB Demetrious Nicholson, Virginia
- LB Jabari Ruffin, USC
Entering Third FBS Season
- DT Kenny Bigelow, USC
- QB Max Browne, USC
- LB Reuben Foster, Alabama
- RB Derrick Green, Michigan
- DB Ryan Green, Florida State
- RB Ty Isaac, Michigan
- OG Darius James, Texas
- RB Alvin Kamara, Tennessee
- WR Robbie Rhodes, Bowling Green
- LB Matthew Thomas, Florida
Entering First FBS Season
- CB Tee Shepard, Ole Miss
WR DeAnthony Arnett, Michigan State
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2011 Class Rank: 40 WR Rank: 6 Previous School: Tennessee
It's now or never for DeAnthony Arnett, who broke out with a strong freshman season at Tennessee (24 receptions, 242 yards, two touchdowns) but has since failed to justify the hype.
He left the Vols in 2012 and enrolled at Michigan State, where he was expected to follow in the footsteps of Devin Thomas, Blair White, Mark Dell and B.J. Cunningham and become the Spartans' No. 1 receiver. However, in three years with the program, he has registered just six catches for 87 yards combined.
Despite that, Arnett enters a favorable situation next season. The Spartans lose Big Ten Wide Receiver of the Year Tony Lippett and Cotton Bowl hero Keith Mumphery, their two leading pass-catchers, and need someone to emerge on the perimeter.
Why not the former blue-chip recruit?
"I think DeAnthony Arnett has stepped forward, I think he has had three very good days of practices," head coach Mark Dantonio said in late March, per Mike Griffith of MLive.com. "He has to do other things as far as lining up, but he has skill, and his skill level is showing."
WR Devon Blackmon, BYU
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2011 Class Rank: 38 ATH Rank: 3 Previous School: Oregon
Devon Blackmon arrived at Oregon the same year as De'Anthony Thomas, and together they were supposed to own the Pac-12.
Unfortunately, things for Blackmon never worked out in Eugene, so he transferred after his redshirt freshman season and spent one year at Riverside City College before joining BYU last winter.
His first year in Provo disappointed. He missed the season-opener with a suspension and finished ninth on the team with 10 catches for 130 yards. But with another year of learning (and maturing) behind him, there is hope for a turnaround season.
"[Blackmon is] a guy that will make a big impact," leading receiver Mitch Mathews told Jeff Call of The Deseret News. "He’s a confident kid and he’s ready to play."
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
QB Jeff Driskel, Louisiana Tech
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2011 Class Rank: 16 QB Rank: 1 Previous School: Florida
Has anyone needed a change of scenery more than Jeff Driskel?
The former 5-star quarterback, who as a sophomore led Florida to the Sugar Bowl, broke his leg in 2013 and struggled with turnovers last season. Those struggles reached a crescendo on Homecoming, when the Gators committed six turnovers—four off Driskel's arm—and trailed Missouri 42-0 after 39 minutes of game time. The Tigers won 42-13 with just 119 yards of total offense.
Despite that, Driskel's arm strength, mobility and frame (6'4", 237 lbs) make him a hard player to give up on. Strong-armed, mobile, 6'4" quarterbacks do not grow on trees. Florida's offensive problems ran far deeper than Driskel's turnovers, and a quiet move to Louisiana Tech, one of the best non-power conference teams in college football, might be just what the doctor ordered.
"Louisiana Tech is a fantastic place for Driskel to revitalize his career," wrote Barrett Sallee of Bleacher Report.
If I may, I'd like to co-sign that statement.
OG Kyle Kalis, Michigan
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2012 Class Rank: 49 OG Rank: 3 Previous School: n/a
Kyle Kalis committed to Ohio State his junior year of high school but defected to Michigan after the Terrelle Pryor tattoo scandal. He went down as one of the biggest recruits Ohio State lost during that era (for context, check the player Kalis ranked directly ahead of).
Although he's seen the field as a true freshman and sophomore, Kalis' performance—like that of Michigan's entire offensive line—has been a letdown. Last year, he even started losing playing time to walk-ons, according to Ari Wasserman of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.
That's the bad news. The good news concerns what Michigan has done this offseason, namely hiring head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator/line specialist Tim Drevno.
Drevno worked for Harbaugh at Stanford and with the San Francisco 49ers, both times crafting superb offensive lines, and last year proved his merit away from Harbaugh as the OL coach at USC. Is there any pair of coaches more equipped to whip Kalis into shape?
If so, that's a short list.
DT Ondre Pipkins, Michigan
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2012 Class Rank: 60 DT Rank: 6 Previous School: n/a
Yes, another Michigan player.
(Story of the Brady Hoke era.)
Minor injuries have beset Ondre Pipkins, but even when he's played he's been a non-factor. He talked a big game during his recruitment—referring to himself in the third person as "the belly of the beast"—but has failed to meet his own, or others', expectations.
Like his teammate Kalis, though, the addition of Harbaugh might change that. The Wolverines' new head coach built a strong defense at Stanford and an even stronger defense in the NFL. New defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin, whose mentors include Harbaugh, Stanford head coach David Shaw, Atlanta Falcons head coach (and former Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator) Dan Quinn, Auburn defensive coordinator Will Muschamp and Detroit Lions defensive coordinator Teryl Austin, has a pretty strong resume, too.
If ever Pipkins was going to make the leap, now would seem the time. He'll miss the Maize and Blue Game for an undisclosed reason, which is cause for concern, but hopefully it's something minor. At 6'3", 317 pounds, he's a weapon this defense needs.
DE Greg Townsend Jr., USC
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2011 Class Rank: 35 DE Rank: 7 Previous School: n/a
It's been a quiet four years for Greg Townsend Jr., who arrived at USC with big expectations but has never been more than a backup.
He missed the 2013 season with a knee injury, which could not have been more poorly timed, as it came smack in the middle of his college career. After appearing in 10 games as a redshirt freshman, he was ramping up for bigger things that season. Instead he spent the whole year on the sideline; and he never looked right in 2014, either.
Now a redshirt senior, Townsend will compete to fill the void left by Leonard Williams. He's out for spring camp with a foot injury, but there's ample room for playing time once he returns.
TE Jay Rome, Georgia
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2011 Class Rank: 55 TE Rank: 5 Previous School: n/a
Foot injuries have derailed Jay Rome at Georgia, especially the past two seasons, when he's played but looked like a shell of his former self.
The difference between him and a pair of his highly ranked teammates, Malcolm Mitchell and Keith Marshall, is that he lacks a proven body of work when healthy. Mitchell (85 catches, 1,237 yards, 8 TD as an underclassman) and Marshall (117 carries, 759 yards, 8 TD as a freshman) can lean on their early numbers, exercise the injury clause and avoid, for the time being, the "bust" label.
Rome is not afforded such a luxury.
Still, one good year of health and production would redeem his first four seasons in Athens. The Bulldogs—a team relying on Mitchell and the equally injury-prone Justin Scott-Wesley as their primary receivers—need all the help they can get in the passing game, and Rome still has the size (6'6", 248 lbs) and skill to contribute.
"I'm really excited about this upcoming year and just how I've been feeling these last four practices," he told David Paschall of the Times Free Press. "I just want to go out and have fun, because I feel like that's one thing that I haven't been able to do as much since I've been here. It's always been about…trying not to hurt myself anymore."
DE Channing Ward, Ole Miss
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2012 Class Rank: 34 DE Rank: 6 Previous School: n/a
Billed as one of the best pass-rushers in the 2012 recruiting class, Channing Ward has spent three years making minimal contributions.
A DUI arrest derailed him last February, although he bounced back and had the best of his three college seasons, finishing with 30 tackles, three forced fumbles and 2.5 sacks. Still, head coach Hugh Freeze expected more from the jewel of his first recruiting class—a player who ranked 293 spots higher than any of his classmates.
However, there are reasons for optimism. Ole Miss moved defensive end C.J. Johnson, who last year finished second on the team with four sacks, to outside linebacker, which opens a starting job across from sophomore Marquis Haynes.
SB Nation's Ole Miss blog, Red Cup Rebellion, called Ward "the player who is most likely to benefit from Johnson's move," saying he is "likely to play significantly more snaps and have the opportunity to leave a lasting impression on Ole Miss fans."
Sounds like the stars are aligning.
RB Brandon Williams, Texas A&M
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2011 Class Rank: 12 RB Rank: 1 Previous School: Oklahoma
Brandon Williams has been a serviceable backup running back—first at Oklahoma in 2011, the past two years at Texas A&M.
In that regard, he shouldn't be called a "bust," but the history of 5-star running backs is more promising than that of other positions, and his overall class ranking, No. 12, is the highest of any player on this list. Plus, head coach Kevin Sumlin yanked Williams from the 2014 Liberty Bowl after he fumbled his first (and only) carry of the game.
Williams, though, has responded to adversity this offseason. Sumlin and running backs coach Clarence McKinney have singled him out during spring practice, citing how he's converted the disappointment of the Liberty Bowl into fuel for his senior year.
"The bowl game has been [Brandon's] motivation," McKinney told Robert Cessna of the Bryan College Station Eagle. "He's looked at what happened in the bowl game with those [other running backs] having really good games and he was the odd man out."
One of those other running backs, fellow former 5-star recruit Trey Williams, declared early for the NFL draft, which leaves B. Williams and Tra Carson as the only proven players in A&M's backfield. Carson will carry the load, but he's a bruising, downhill runner with different skills than Williams, so both will see meaningful playing time.
Note: All recruiting info refers to the 247Sports composite rankings
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
