Assembling Los Angeles Clippers' Ideal Playoff Rotation
The Los Angeles Clippers are having another good season. Head coach Doc Rivers has led the team to a 49-26 record, occupying the No. 5 seed by half a game and holding home-court advantage over the No. 4 seed Portland Trail Blazers.
Meanwhile, the team's playoff scenarios change daily. The Clippers could end as high as the second seed or fall as low as sixth.
Additionally, Jamal Crawford is currently out with a calf injury but hopes to return before the playoffs. Rivers' rotations are sporadic without Crawford to provide relief at shooting guard. This has led to the starters playing extended minutes as they chase the No. 2 seed.
When Crawford returns to the lineup, what will Rivers' playoff rotation looks like? Who deserves minutes and which players should remain on the bench?
The Starters
The Clippers' top six players have been as good as any in the entire league. However, the starting five of Chris Paul, J.J. Redick, Matt Barnes, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan combine to score 46.6 points per game, tops in the league per NBA.com.
Adding Crawford into the mix makes any permutation of those six players formidable, as you can see in the chart below. Although he is not a member of the starting unit, he might as well be considered one. Crawford sees more minutes than anyone on the bench and won the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year award last season. In fact, he might win it again this year.
| Paul, Redick, Crawford, Barnes, Jordan | +21.5 | 55 |
| Paul, Redick, Barnes, Griffin, Jordan | +19.2 | 1,058 |
| Paul, Crawford, Barnes, Jordan, Griffin | +14.1 | 220 |
| Paul, Redick, Crawford, Griffin, Jordan | +5.6 | 230 |
Rivers' top six play a majority of the available minutes every game. This will also be the case during the playoffs. Austin Rivers, Glen Davis and Spencer Hawes will likely see their minutes reduced. Barring an injury or foul trouble, this will allow Rivers to keep his core on the floor together.
While the defense is still struggling to reach league average (19th in defensive efficiency), it is difficult to complain considering how efficient the starters are offensively. They provide great spacing and fluid ball movement, making them extremely difficult to defend.
Luckily, there are no back-to-backs in the playoffs. Rivers will likely allow his starters to play as many minutes as they can handle. The entire starting five has played at least 30 minutes per game during the regular season. Expect each player to log an additional three or four minutes in close games.
Paul and Griffin serve as the team's primary creators. Both are willing passers but capable of beating their defenders off the dribble, creating their own looks and scoring at a high clip.
Jordan and Barnes bring the energy and defense to the starting lineup.
Jordan leads the league in rebounds per game and is fourth in blocks. Barnes will take on the role of perimeter stopper but also excels slashing to the basket and crashing the offensive glass.
Finally, Redick provides elite floor spacing, shooting a career-best 43.1 percent from three. Additionally, he is a capable secondary ball-handler and creates havoc on the weak side of the floor running off screens.
The key to the Clippers' success will rely on the productivity of their starting lineup.
The Bench
Gone are the days of the Clippers bringing in guys off the bench like Eric Bledsoe and Darren Collison to team with Crawford. The Clippers' bench is as weak as it has been in quite some time.
According to HoopsStats.com, the Clippers rank a dreadful 22nd in bench scoring and 28th in efficiency. Take Crawford's 16.4 points per game away from the equation, and the remainder of the bench accounts for 14.5 points.
Spencer Hawes was expected to become a primary contributor. Someone Rivers could count on to log minutes at power forward and center in a three-man rotation with Griffin and Jordan.
Instead, Hawes is shooting a career-low 39.4 percent from the field and scoring only 6.0 points per game. He simply has not fit into Rivers' system, and his play has stymied any hope of the Clippers' bench being semi-productive.
However, Glen Davis has played reasonably well splitting minutes with Hawes. His 47 percent mark from the field is well over his career average of 44.8. Also, his defensive rebounding percentage is a serviceable half percent under his average.
Next, Hedo Turkoglu has been a welcomed surprise. Rivers has been desperately trying to find a reserve behind Barnes. Turkoglu has stepped up and filled some of those minutes.
He has already played in more games (55) this season than he has since 2010-11. But his real value is in his three-point shooting.
He's attempting 71.1 percent of his shots from behind the arc and is connecting on a blistering 42.5 percent of them. Turkoglu has found a role with the Clippers.
Finally, the reigning sixth man of the year. Crawford has been a vital piece of the puzzle since signing with the Clippers three years ago. However, his contributions have been more valuable this season due to the team's limited bench.
His statistics are not going to jump off the page. In fact, he is actually below most of his career averages. However, he ranks 35th in scoring this year and the Clippers have needed every point produced.
He fits seamlessly into Rivers' offense. He can handle the ball and attack off the dribble, is dangerous from behind the arc and can create his own shot. Opponents are terrified to leave him open despite an effective field-goal percentage of 47.3.
The concern is that Crawford will not be full healthy when the playoffs begin. He has missed the last 14 games with a calf injury.
The injury was so severe Griffin told the Los Angeles Times' Melissa Rohlin that Crawford could "barely walk."
Outside of those four players, Rivers seems hesitant to give anyone else minutes. Ekpe Udoh has played sparingly all season and is unlikely to see any time in the playoffs. C.J. Wilcox has been in and out of the D-League all season. Jordan Hamilton and Dahntay Jones were signed for the rest of the season but hardly see the floor. Lester Hudson was recently signed to a 10-day contract but might not even be on the playoff roster.
Minute Distribution
| PG | Chris Paul (38) | Austin Rivers (10) |
| SG | J.J. Redick (31) | Jamal Crawford (32) |
| SF | Matt Barnes (33) | Hedo Turkoglu (3) |
| PF | Blake Griffin (40) | Glen Davis (6) |
| C | DeAndre Jordan (40) | Spencer Hawes (7) |
Clearly, Rivers is going to ride his top six players as much as he can. His bench is below average outside of Crawford, and his starting lineup is fantastic.
Assuming Crawford is healthy, expect Rivers to play him as much as he can. He is the only reliable reserve on the roster and might be the best in the league.
Meanwhile, Rivers, Turkoglu and Hawes will enter the game when someone needs a breather or when someone is in foul trouble.
Are the Clippers capable of contending in the conference in spite of their bench? Will Rivers be forced to extend his rotation due to Crawford's injury? Can Paul, Griffin and Jordan play nearly 40 minutes per game and sustain their overall efficiency?
It seems there are more questions than answers.
The Clippers will need to be hitting on all cylinders offensively. They also will need to increase their defensive intensity. However, if the Clippers are going to win, it will take a valiant effort from the team's top six.
All statistics are from Basketball-Reference.com and updated through April 1, unless otherwise indicated.
For more Clippers coverage follow @JeffNisiusNBA
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
