What Recent History Suggests About the Oakland Raiders' 2015 NFL Draft Plan
You can expect two things from the Oakland Raiders’ draft plan: a high-selection prospect out of a smaller less celebrated football program and a curveball against conventional wisdom.
Reggie McKenzie has shown a track record of draft-day risks and due diligence on under-the-radar prospects with potential.
Oakland has selected four prospects from non-powerhouse football programs within the first three rounds of the last two drafts.
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| Year | Player | Round | School |
| 2014 | Khalil Mack | 1 | Buffalo |
| 2014 | Derek Carr | 2 | Fresno State |
| 2014 | Gabe Jackson | 3 | Mississippi State |
| 2013 | D.J. Hayden | 1 | Houston |
| 2013 | Menelik Watson | 2 | Florida State |
| 2013 | Sio Moore | 3 | Conneticut |
It’s clear the Raiders’ scouts hit the ground and gather a ton of research—it has paid off with the emergence of Derek Carr, Sio Moore and Khalil Mack. It shouldn’t be hard to envision Ali Marpet as another under-the-radar type of player to garner McKenzie's attention.
Marpet from Hobart College was barely visible on draft boards until he showcased his skills during the NFL Scouting Combine. Currently, CBSSports.com has the offensive lineman projected as a second- to third-round pick.
Secondly, it’s no secret McKenzie has an eye on a guard for the upcoming draft, especially after moving Austin Howard back to his natural position at tackle. There’s a preference and a need for Marpet as an early pick for Oakland.
McKenzie should keep tabs on Laken Tomlinson (Duke) and Tre’ Jackson (Florida State) as indicators to Marpet’s time left on the board.
The Raiders put a lot of faith in their scout team to the point they neglect high-priority draft needs—the results are mixed.
In 2013, the Raiders were in need of a guard to strengthen the offensive line or defensive tackle to pair with Pat Sims to bulk the defensive front. Instead Raiders' brass chose D.J. Hayden, despite signing veteran cornerbacks Tracy Porter and Mike Jenkins earlier in that offseason.
Hindsight is always 20-20, but Porter and Jenkins were solid veterans and started a combined 31 games in the 2013 season. After recovering from injury, Hayden started two games that year.
Why draft so high on an injured player after signing two veterans at the same position with pressing needs elsewhere?
The selection was a head-scratcher from the start.
Defensive tackles, Sheldon Richardson and Star Lotulelei were selected after Hayden with the 12th and 13th picks. Guard Kyle Long was selected 20th.
Vance Walker started at DT next to Sims, and the starting guards were Mike Brisiel and Lucas Nix in the following season. Nix and Brisiel weren’t on NFL rosters, and Walker started two games for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2014.
Kyle Long was selected to two Pro Bowls in his first two seasons. Richardson is a dynamic DT, who can stuff the run and racked up eight sacks for the New York Jets in 2014. Lotulelei is a solid run-stopper, per Pro Football Focus, with 29 starts for the Carolina Panthers. Hayden has 10 starts in two years with limited on-field production.
The first-round gamble on Hayden has been a setback for Oakland, until he proves to be a healthy cornerback capable of defending No. 1 receivers.
Fortunately for Oakland, McKenzie and Co. took a gamble that could resurrect the franchise when they selected Carr in the second round of the 2014 draft.
Oakland traded a sixth-round pick to acquire Matt Schaub about a year ago. Schaub was considered to be the front-runner for the starting position but was outperformed by Carr in the preseason.
The Raiders were in need of a pass-rusher even after signing aging veteran Justin Tuck, who had multiple injuries throughout his career with the New York Giants. However, after choosing Mack in the first round, Oakland addressed the offense in the second, which may turn out to be one of the best one-two combination picks in recent Raiders history.
Oakland passed on needs at DE with Stephon Tuitt and Kony Ealy still available in the 2014 draft in favor of Carr. The selection wasn’t high-risk, but the decision to take Carr and allow him to compete with veteran teammate Schaub paid dividends.
Carr’s rapid emergence came as a surprise, and Schaub became an afterthought putting a feather in McKenzie’s draft cap.
The Raiders are now in a position that requires a different view of the draft in comparison to recent years. In previous offseasons, Oakland had plenty of voids to fill and lacked talent across the board. Now, the team has pieces, and there’s a need to build around those players as the team progresses.
Though history suggests some risky moves from the front office, expect a change in draft approach due to the general roster improvement. Two major needs, wide receiver and defensive end, must be addressed in order to compete for a division title.
Oakland’s backfield features three running backs with minimal success as starters in the league. McKenzie needs to arm Carr with solid weapons to compete on the scoreboard.
On defense, the Raiders are gambling with a young secondary featuring Hayden and Travis Carrie, which increases the need for a stronger front seven, specifically a prolific pass-rusher.
In the last two drafts, Oakland selected a defensive player first—that trend will continue if Leonard Williams is available with the fourth pick.
However, in Williams' absence, it’s likely the Raiders address the offense first, choosing Amari Cooper or Kevin White to establish a viable QB-WR tandem.
Expect McKenzie to shelf the bag of tricks for some textbook picks based on need early in the draft. The voids on the rosters are too significant to ignore. However, don’t rule out non-powerhouse prospects such as CB Jacoby Glenn (UCF), WR Vince Mayle (Washington State) and TE Nick Boyle (Delaware) in the later rounds.
What do you expect from the Raiders during the first three rounds of the 2015 draft? Should McKenzie stick to the script and draft by need or take a riskier approach? Send your tweets to Maurice’s Twitter. All rational thoughts and questions are welcome.
Advanced statistics and Oakland Raiders draft history provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com
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