Is It Time for Dallas Mavericks to Switch Their Starting Lineup?
On paper, the Dallas Mavericks have one of the most star-studded starting units in the NBA. Unfortunately, that group just hasn't quite clicked.
It's highly uncommon for a playoff team to voluntarily change its starting lineup this late in the regular season. Most already have a set identity, and such a drastic change can sometimes do more harm than good.
None of Dallas' starters—Rajon Rondo, Monta Ellis, Chandler Parsons, Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler—have ever come off the bench except for early in their careers. To pull one of them out without a summer of convincing could damage that player's ego and hurt the team chemistry as a result. Add to the mix that Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle values continuity, and the proposition of a lineup change at this stage would appear preposterous.
It's highly unlikely that Carlisle will willingly make any drastic changes in his rotation this late. That being said, it's blatantly clear that the starters haven't meshed. Making a change would be bold and risky, but it's better than sitting in a sinking ship and pretending everything is fine.
The statistics are crystal clear when advocating such a change to Dallas' stagnated offense and uninspiring defense.
The Mavs' current starting five has been outscored by 2.8 points per 100 possessions this season, according to NBA.com. They are putting up a league-average 102.4 points per 100 possessions, while surrendering a defensive rating of 105.2, a figure that would rank 25th in the league, per ESPN's Hollinger stats. For reference, Dallas' old starting lineup featuring the now-departed Jameer Nelson outscored opponents by a sensational 12.9 points per 100 possessions.
The sample size isn't tiny. Dallas' starting unit has logged the eighth-most minutes out of any lineup in the league, and every single group with more playing time has a net rating of at least 7.1 points per 100 possessions, per NBA's media stats page. There isn't a single playoff team (in both conferences) that has a starting lineup with a worse net rating than the Mavs'.
The Mavericks have several efficient role players who could plug some holes in the starting lineup, but someone would have to relent a spot first.
Who to Bench?
The only real untouchable in Dallas' starting lineup is Chandler. The team doesn't have another rim protector of his caliber, and his screens are crucial for the pick-and-rolls.
Parsons is also borderline untouchable. His pick-and-roll prowess and ability to be a secondary driver at the small forward position are internally irreplaceable qualities. Richard Jefferson is nowhere near the offensive threat, while Al-Farouq Aminu would cause a spacing disaster if he replaced Parsons.
That leaves Ellis, Nowitzki and Rondo as the three potential candidates.
Carlisle is desperately trying to make things work with Rondo, even playing him in crunch time when he mostly stands unguarded in the corner watching Ellis navigate through a packed paint. His teammates have also had his back publicly.
"There’s no problem (with Rondo)," Ellis said, according to Josh Planos of Sports Illustrated. "Rondo is a great asset on both ends of the floor. It takes a while for the player to really get adjusted to a new system, new personalities, figuring out where guys want the ball."
Benching Rondo in the fourth quarter is often the right basketball decision, but bringing him off the bench wouldn't do much good. Devin Harris works well with Ellis, but Rondo doesn't really have the prototypical skill set of a reserve. He needs great players around him and can't single-handedly create instant offense.
Dallas could very well return to being an offensive powerhouse by replacing Rondo in the starting lineup, but he just wouldn't bring much value off the bench. Assuming the Mavericks still want to try to incorporate him into the team, he would be an unlikely candidate for replacement. That is especially the case since he will hit free agency this summer and already has a shaky relationship with Carlisle.
Nowitzki and Ellis are the most interesting options. Dirk's mere presence on the court forces defenses to adjust, while Ellis is a one-man wrecking machine when he's feeling it. They are both essential to Dallas' offense, but replacing one of them with a reserve makes the most sense.
Dirk is a selfless superstar and would probably understand if Carlisle opted to bring him off the bench. He would have a field day as the focal point of the offense against second units and would still close games on a lot of occasions. He is used to playing with a lot of bench units already, so it wouldn't be too hard of an adjustment.
Ellis might not take a hypothetical move to the bench as graciously. Outside of his rookie year with the Golden State Warriors, he has always been a starter. Even so, he has the perfect skill set for an instant-offense reserve. Like Dirk, he would still be a closer, but spreading his minutes out with different groups could be beneficial. There is certainly precedent for this within Dallas' organization, as Jason Terry had a similar role when he was with the team.
Who Comes In?
Whenever Dallas' starting lineup hasn't been whole, Carlisle has often turned to Jefferson as a temporary stand-in. While he has been a serviceable role player and the Mavericks' best three-point shooter (42 percent), Jefferson hasn't really made that big of an impact in the 12 games he has gotten the starting nod this year. The Mavs are 1.4 points per 100 possessions better with him on the bench, per NBA.com.
The two obvious candidates for either Ellis or Nowitzki would be Aminu and Harris. They both have sufficient two-way qualities to radically change the starting lineup.
Aminu has been a huge revelation this season. He disrupts passing lanes, plays suffocating man-to-man defense and is one of the best pure hustle-and-energy guys in the league. It's no coincidence that Dallas outscores opponents by 7.6 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, which is the highest net rating on the team, per NBA.com.
Even though he can't really shoot, Aminu makes up for his lack of a versatile offensive skill set on the defensive end and by creating second-chance opportunities. That has even earned him chances to close games over Nowitzki or Parsons on several occasions.
The Mavs offense obviously takes a big hit without Nowitzki. The starters have shared the court with Aminu (in place of Dirk) for 52 minutes this season. That group outscores opponents by 11.1 points per 100 possessions, while comically putting up what would be the league-best defensive and worst offensive ratings, per NBA.com.
It's a small sample size and those figures are somewhat extreme, but they're not inaccurate per se. That lineup clearly lacks some offensive punch but has enough elite defenders to disrupt most offenses.
The Rondo and Harris backcourt hasn't been great. In the 163 minutes the two have shared the court, Dallas has been outscored by 2.1 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com. Even so, it's a somewhat intriguing option.
With Monta and Rondo sharing most of the ball-handling duties, Parsons is forced to play third or even fourth fiddle in the starting lineup. He has shown that he can help carry the offense with more touches, and moving Ellis to the bench would allow him to do just that. Harris is better off the ball and doesn't use as many possessions as Ellis, which would allow Parsons to move into a more prominent role.
The same principle applies to the Rondo-for-Harris swap in the starting lineup, which could be even more lethal. Then again, that would mean the Mavericks would essentially wave the white flag on the Rondo experiment, practically forcing him through the door this summer.
Rondo's inability to shoot has handicapped the offense, but if he was relegated to the bench he might as well not play at all. Even though the Mavericks' best chance at regaining their offensive pedigree most likely means playing without Rondo, they have to survive with him playing a key role this season.
You can follow me on Twitter: @VytisLasaitis
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