Which Conference Is Most Likely to Produce 2015's Heisman Trophy Winner?

The Heisman Trophy race has become predictable and formulaic. On one hand, that's made the whole thing mostly uninteresting. Last year, Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota won by a landslide, and there's an argument to be made that the results were decided months before. 

On the other hand, such consistency in the results provides a glimpse into which players have the best shot to win. 

Here's what we know: The Heisman is basically a quarterback award. It has been since the turn of the century. In fact, only one non-quarterback has won the Heisman since 2000: Alabama running back Mark Ingram in 2009. 

Sure enough, Odds Sharks' latest Heisman odds have 10 quarterbacks among the top 20 players.  

Name	Position—School	Odds
Ezekiel Elliott	RB—Ohio State	6/1
Dak Prescott	QB—Mississippi State	7/1
Leonard Fournette	RB—LSU	15/2
Trevone Boykin	QB–TCU	15/2
Nick Chubb	RB—Georgia	9/1
Cardale Jones	QB—Ohio State	10/1
Cody Kessler	QB—USC	12/1
Derrick Henry	RB—Alabama	14/1
Paul Perkins	RB—UCLA	14/1
Samaje Perine	RB—Oklahoma	14/1
J.T. Barrett	QB—Ohio State	16/1
Braxton Miller	QB—Ohio State	20/1
Connor Cook	QB—Michigan State	20/1
Deshaun Watson	QB—Clemson	20/1
Jeremy Johnson	QB—Auburn	20/1
Royce Freeman	RB—Oregon	25/1
Brad Kaaya	QB—Miami (FL)	33/1
Corey Clement	RB—Wisconsin	33/1
D.J. Foster	RB/WR—Arizona State	33/1
Dalvin Cook	RB—Florida State	33/1

It makes sense. TCU's Trevone Boykin had a legitimate claim to be a Heisman finalist last season and accounted for more than 4,600 total yards. Should USC realize its playoff hopes, Cody Kessler will become a fascinating Heisman candidate. 

Then there's the four quarterbacks from the Big Ten with a shot: Ohio State's big three (Cardale Jones, JT Barrett and Braxton Miller) and Michigan State's Connor Cook. Eventually, though, the Buckeyes will have to settle on one primary quarterback. That puts the Big Ten at two Heisman contenders. 

The ACC has two up-and-coming stars in Deshaun Watson and Brad Kaaya. Four SEC players rank among the top 10 with the best Heisman odds, though only one, Dak Prescott, is a quarterback. 

Those are all legitimate choices who deserve the hype they're going to get. But here's the one thing that actually works against them: The difficulty in predicting where the Heisman winner will come from stems from the fact that we may not know much about him yet. 

Beyond Mariota, recent Heisman winners have been relative unknowns at the start of the season. Jason McIntyre of The Big Lead noted as much last December: 

"

Three of the last four winners were essentially 1st-year players who were not on the Heisman radar at the start of the season. Cam Newton came from JUCO (by way of Florida), and Johnny Manziel and Jameis Winston were redshirt freshman who hadn’t thrown a college pass. Debating freshmen or drama Kings is fun.. Blowouts are not.

"

In other words, if you want to win the Heisman, it helps to be a first-year, starting-full-time quarterback who comes out of nowhere. Heisman odds can't reflect that because, put simply, there's no way to know who that will be. 

With those two things in mind, the SEC could actually make a strong run at having another Heisman winner. 

That's not to say Georgia running back Nick Chubb doesn't have a strong chance to win the Heisman, but it's okay to think a little more adventurously. Recent history actually encourages it. 

If you're going by the trend, someone like Auburn quarterback Jeremy Johnson would be an intriguing choice at 20-1 odds. Johnson had a brief moment of fame in last season's opener against Arkansas when he threw for 243 yards and two touchdowns while starter Nick Marshall served a half-game suspension. The potential is certainly there. 

Year	Winner	Position	First-Place Votes	Margin to Second Place
2014	Marcus Mariota	QB	788	1,284 points
2013	Jameis Winston	QB	668	1,501 points
2012	Johnny Manziel	QB	474	323 points
2011	Robert Griffin III	QB	405	280 points
2010	Cam Newton	QB	729	1,184 points

Or, if you really want to go off the beaten path, put money—figuratively speaking, of course—on Texas A&M's or even Alabama's new quarterback. Both will play in offenses that are quarterback/stat friendly. You could even make a case that Tennessee's Joshua Dobbs is primed for a Heisman run. 

To varying degrees, they all fit the mold. 

But let's say 2015 turns out to be a down year for quarterbacks and a great year for running backs. The SEC has ground covered there, too.

The conference has the right blend of relative unknowns and household names like Chubb and LSU running back Leonard Fournette. They could be two players in the right systems who have legitimate chances if a quarterback doesn't win.

Last year, the Big Ten had the best crop of running backs with Gordon, Ameer Abdullah, Tevin Coleman, David Cobb and Ezekiel Elliott. The SEC could take that title in 2015. As a sophomore, Chubb is stating his case as the best running back in college football. 

Could he be the most outstanding player in college football? A lot would have to happen, but yes, theoretically. 

None of this is to imply that quarterbacks are instantly more deserving because of their position; it's a matter of history. 

And the SEC has the under-the-radar players who fit the criteria. 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All stats courtesy of CFBStats.com.