Denver Broncos Not Losing Ground in AFC West Despite Quiet Offseason

The Denver Broncos lost three starters from a year ago in free agency, but general manager John Elway has quietly replaced them without much fanfare. Unlike last year when the Broncos went on a spending spree in free agency trying to upgrade on defense, the signings have mostly been B-list free agents.

The clear departure in style has reinforced the notion that the Broncos are losing ground in the AFC West. The Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers and Oakland Raiders have all made bigger splashes in free agency, presumably meaning they have gained ground in the annual tradition of trying to win on paper.

While there is no doubting the approach is different, the Broncos are actually doing what is necessary to maintain their superiority in the division if not build upon it. A quieter approach should actually yield greater on-field results in 2015 and in the future.

The Broncos have lost seven players via free agency, only to sign six players to replace them at the same positions. Elway is keenly aware of what he is losing, and he’s made moves to replace those players, but not in a way that mortgages the future.

That’s obviously important as quarterback Peyton Manning enters what is probably the final year of his career. As Manning exits the game, other teams will be able to close the gap if the Broncos don’t take steps to avoid an ugly transition. That’s exactly what Elway is doing now.

Julius Thomas and Jacob Tamme to Virgil Green and Owen Daniels

At tight end, the Broncos replaced Julius Thomas and Jacob Tamme with in-house option Virgil Green and veteran Owen Daniels. This is a clear sign the Broncos will be shifting to a run-heavy approach under new head coach Gary Kubiak, and as such they didn’t downgrade at the tight end position.

The Broncos will likely shift around 10 percent of the offense from the passing game to the running game. Kubiak’s offense in Baltimore last year scored 43 touchdowns, but 37.2 percent were on the ground. The Broncos had 55 touchdowns, but just 27.3 percent were on the ground.

Player	Snaps	Pass	Pass Block	Run Block
Julius Thomas	715	3.3	1.1	0.1
Jacob Tamme	287	-2.5	1.1	0.1
Virgil Green	403	-0.7	0.0	+5.5
Owen Daniels	832	2.1	1.1	-3.5
Difference	+233	+0.6	-1.1	+1.8

When it’s all said and done, the Broncos may throw a lot to score, so the result may not look as drastic as the difference in touchdown rates, but it will be functionally the same. The Ravens will rush more between the 20s and then turn it over to Manning to get the ball into the end zone.

It’s a perfect marriage, because Kubiak’s offenses have often struggled in the red zone in the past. The zone-blocking scheme that Kubiak deploys tends to have a weakness in the red zone as defenses condense and account for more gaps in the running game.

So shifting from two pass-catchers like Thomas and Tamme to a blocker like Green and an all-around tight end like Daniels who has played every snap of his career for Kubiak is actually a great move for the Broncos. Given the offensive changes, the Broncos shouldn’t miss a beat at tight end.

The Broncos will likely also get a compensatory pick in 2016 to offset the loss of Thomas. That will help them add weapons or replace some of the other realized losses.

Orlando Franklin to Shelley Smith

It seems like the Broncos drastically downgraded at guard going from Orlando Franklin to Shelley Smith, but that’s before considering the scheme change. Smith performed very well in a zone-heavy scheme in St. Louis in 2013.

Smith was especially good blocking for the run. Pro Football Focus graded Smith the seventh-best run-blocking guard in the whole league in 2013, and he played just 10 games. Kubiak’s former team, the Texans, also drafted Smith, and he spent two years learning Kubiak’s blocking principles.

We know that Smith struggled in Miami last year, but that’s after coming back from a knee injury. If the Broncos are confident he is healthy, Smith may turn into a very good run-blocker for the Broncos.

Player	Year	Snaps	Pass Block	Run Block
Orlando Franklin	2014	1195	+9.0	+9.8
Orlando Franklin	2011 (Pre-Manning at RT)	1192	-8.9	+5.0
Shelley Smith	2014	367	-3.2	-6.9
Shelley Smith	2013	371	-6.0	+13.2

As a run-blocker, Smith should be able to replace Franklin. As a pass-blocker, the Broncos will have to rely more on Manning’s quick decision-making to hide pass-blocking decencies. Smith generally holds his own in pass protection, but he will struggle with some inside rushers, as he did with Jurrell Casey and Brandon Mebane in 2013.

Pass protection could be a concern for the Broncos if they ever have to go with a pass-heavy approach, but that’s obviously not the plan. By adding Smith and letting Franklin leave as one of the top guards on the market, the Broncos may get a compensatory pick for him in 2016, which will help Elway and the front office retool post-Manning.

The team will also give Ben Garland a chance to compete with Smith, so there is a backup plan if Smith gets hurt again or can’t recapture his 2013 form. It’s always good to have options, even if they aren’t option No. 1.

Rahim Moore to Darian Stewart

Letting Rahim Moore go in free agency and signing Darian Stewart is perhaps the most curious move the Broncos made this offseason. Stewart has primary played strong safety, and the Broncos will ask him to play deep more in 2015.

Player	Snaps	Coverage	Run
Rahim Moore	1074	+4.2	-3.3
Darian Stewart	782	+2.8	+3.5

That said, Stewart has never really been a coverage liability, so that’s probably why the Broncos are OK about asking him to play deep. The Broncos didn’t ask Moore to support the run much last year. With a group of cornerbacks like those the Broncos have and a good box safety like T.J. Ward, there aren't many instances when that was necessary.

Moore rarely made a negative play, but it was also rare to see him around the ball. That’ll change with Stewart in 2014, and with the supporting cast in front of him, it’s likely going to be in a positive way.

Terrance Knighton to Vance Walker

This is another interesting one, but it makes sense when you consider that Wade Phillips is taking over as defensive coordinator. Walker is a pass-rushing defensive tackle in a 4-3 and a defensive end in a 3-4.

The Broncos were trying to find a cheap replacement for defensive tackle Terrance Knighton, and Walker fits the bill. Walker had a hard time getting on the field in Kansas City last season, but once he did, he was good.

Player	Snaps	Sacks	Hits	Hurries	Productivity
Terrance Knighton	578	2	6	10	4.6
Vance Walker	238	3	1	8	10.5

Although losing Knighton was a blow in theory, the Broncos already had great depth on the defensive line. Derek Wolfe and Malik Jackson will transition seamlessly to end in Phillips’ scheme, but there will be pressure on former first-round draft pick Sylvester Williams to anchor the center of the line.

While it seems like the Broncos are taking slight downgrades at many spots, scheme is overriding the concerns in most cases. Knighton and Williams would have been competing for time in Phillips’ scheme anyway, and having depth at end is more important in the short-term. The Broncos will still have to figure out how to back Williams up, but that’s a much easier problem to solve.

Nate Irving to Reggie Walker

The Broncos even replaced middle linebacker Nate Irving with inside linebacker Reggie Walker. Although primarily a special teamer, Walker does have experience. In 2013, Walker started a few games when the San Diego Chargers struggled with injuries and poor defensive play.

As an Irving replacement, the Broncos could do a lot worse than Walker. Irving is a two-down player just like Walker at this point, so the Broncos are just swapping them out.

The Broncos have a much better supporting cast on defense than the Chargers. For that reason, it’s possible Walker is a lot better than he showed with the Chargers in 2013. Either way, the Broncos will not overly rely on him.

Overall

About the only player the Broncos haven’t replaced in free agency is defensive tackle Mitch Unrein, but his fit was questionable in the new defense, and he hardly played last year, so it makes sense. The Broncos have still find a younger defensive tackle to incorporate into the rotation.

Overall, the Broncos were very selective in free agency, and they signed B-list players to help fill holes vacated by players perceived to be better. While other teams were foolishly overspending, the Broncos were securing deals with the best of the rest to replace their losses along the way.  

There are still a few holes to fill, but Elway knows he doesn’t have to panic to find solid players, and he’s proven that. At some point, he’d like to bring in a center to compete with Matt Paradis for the job and probably add depth at a dozen positions.

Elway said via Mike Klis of The Denver Post that he’s in no rush to do these things until prices come down in free agency:

"

There's plenty of guys out there and there's plenty of time…Hopefully, Paradis is the answer. Obviously, he's young…What you have to keep in mind is we think we're going to get 10 (draft) picks and we only have 53 (roster) slots. So it's hard to bring these guys in and give them a lot of money up front to compete because what do you do if one of those young guys prove they're ready? We'll do something. We're just not in a rush.

"

Elway has done a good job filling holes created by free agency without taking huge steps back or devoting resources. He’s found scheme fits and underrated players that Kubiak can mold, and he still has plenty of time to do more.

With 10 picks in the upcoming NFL draft, he has the kind of cheap resources to build depth and competition at positions of weakness. If he can also find a couple impact players, the Broncos will not only have not given up ground to the rest of the AFC West, they may be able to widen the gap.