What Are the Odds?

A few days ago, I wrote that the odds of Stephen Strasburg blowing out his arm were less than 50%.  For the sake of accuracy, I decided that I’d do a little research to see if that was really true.

How many of the pitchers, who were the first pitchers selected in their respective draft years, actually had major arm problems that prevented them from giving the teams that selected them the seasons reasonably hoped for?  Well, a lot of it depends on the methodology you use.

I thought a reasonable way to look at it would be to define pitchers who did not have major arm problems as those who pitched four different full seasons in the major leagues before they became free agents for the first time or were released (or waived or left off the 40-man roster and taken by another team in the Rule 5 draft).  My thinking is that this would take into account seasons where the pitcher was trying to establish himself in the major leagues and a season or two where the pitcher had minor arm problems that any pitcher is likely to have over a six or seven year period.

I went back as far as the 1977 Draft, which was the first year where the teams reasonably knew or should have known that they would only get six seasons out of a draftee before he became a free agent.  Before that, teams thought they would get the control the player for his entire career unless they decided to trade, release, waive, etc., the player.  Since my ultimate goal is to determine the likelihood of Stephen Strasburg giving the Washington Nationals healthy seasons before he becomes a free agent and gets paid his actual fair market value, I decided not to go back past the 1977 Draft.

Going back to the 1977 draft, I found 28 pitchers who were the first pitcher selected in the year they were drafted and who have played long enough to say with certainty they either met or failed to meet my four-full-season requirement.

Here’s what I found.  The following 16 pitchers (57% of the first pitchers drafted) pitched at least four different full seasons before they became free agents or were released:

Justin Verlander (2nd player selected in 2004); Josh Beckett (No. 2 in 1999); Mark Mulder (No. 2 in 1998); Kerry Wood (No. 4 in 1995), Darren Driefort (No. 2 in 1993); Paul Shuey (No. 2 in 1992); Alex Fernandez (No. 4 in 1990); Andy Benes (No. 1 in 1988); Greg Swindell (No. 2 in 1986); Bobby Witt (No. 3 in 1985); Billy Swift (No. 2 in 1984); Tim Belcher (No. 1 in 1983); Mike Moore (No. 1 in 1981); Ken Dayley (No. 3 in 1980); Tim Leary (No. 2 in 1979); and Bill Gullickson (No. 2 in 1977).

The following 12 pitchers (43% of the first pitchers drafted) did not make the four different full season threshhold:

Kyle Sleeth (3rd player drafted in 2003); Bryan Bullington (No. 1 in 2002); Mark Prior (No. 2 in 2001); Adam Johnson (No. 2 in 2000); Matt Anderson (No. 1 in 1997); Kris Benson (No. 1 in 1996); Paul Wilson (No. 1 in 1994); Brien Taylor (No. 1 in 1991); Ben McDonald (No.1 in 1989); Willie Banks (No. 3 in 1987); Jimmy Jones (No. 3 in 1982); Mike Morgan (No. 4 in 1978).

A bit more about the methodology:  I basically considered a full season as a season in which the pitcher spent the vast majority of the year on the major league roster and pitched regularly.  I had a cut off of roughly 162 innings pitched for starters and about 50 games pitched for relievers.

However, my decisions as to a complete season or not a complete season are somewhat subjective.  For example, in 1986 Bobby Witt pitched only 157.2 IP, but he made 31 starts.  I consider that a full season.

On the other hand, Ben McDonald pitched 157.1 IP in 1994, but he made only 24 starts.  That was a close one, but I decided that was not a full season.

Also, Paul Shuey had four seasons where he made between 4o and 47 relief appearances, along with two seasons in which he pitched in 57 or more games.  I concluded that he gave the Indians four different full seasons.

I didn’t take into account how the pitcher pitched in those seasons.  So long as the pitcher was healthy enough to pitch regularly for all or most of the year, a failure to perform at the level hoped for by the team that drafted him seemed to me more a matter of poor scouting than bad luck (i.e., major injury).

Obviously, Paul Shuey and Ken Dayley did not perform at a level the teams that drafted them hoped for.  Nonetheless, they were effective relievers for a number of years and helped their teams win in that capacity.

Also, I did not take into account trades.  My thinking was that if the drafting team traded a pitcher and that pitcher had success before becoming a free agent with his new team, that reflects more on the team that gave up on the pitcher than on the pitcher’s inability to pitch.  Also, one can assume that even though the pitcher was probably traded when his value was at its lowest, the team that drafted him got something in return in the trade, which is not the case when a player is released or waived.

Among the players who failed to meet my threshold, a number of them were arguably worth the enormous signing bonuses (and later salaries) they received in the few seasons when they were able to pitch regularly.  For example, Mark Prior earned every penny of the $10.5 million initial contract he signed with the Cubs two years later in 2003 when he was the National League’s best starting pitcher and the Cubs made the playoffs almost entirely due to Prior’s stellar performance.

Similarly, Ben McDonald almost certainly did enough for the Orioles in the five seasons between 1990 and 1994 to justify all the compensation the Orioles ever paid him.   The same is probably true for Kris Benson and the Pittsburg Pirates.  Usually, the teams that really got burned were the ones that signed these guys to free agent contracts when it was clear their arms weren’t sound.

In conclusion, I think I’m justified in claiming the odds are well better than 50% that Stephen Strasburg will ultimately be worth as much or more to the Nationals than the $15.1 million signing bonus and succeeding contracts they will give him until he becomes a free agent seven to nine years from now.

P.S.  Since 1979, 25 out of 31 times the first pitcher taken was a college pitcher.  From 1965 (first Draft) through 1978, twelve out of fourteen times the first pitcher taken was a high school pitcher.  Obviously, Bill James wasn’t the first person to figure out that highly drafted college pitchers were more likely to have major league success than highly drafted high school pitchers: by about 1980 all the major league teams had apparently realized this fact as well.