Complete Cincinnati Reds 2015 Season Preview

After a long and busy offseason, the Cincinnati Reds are ready to try to prove all of the doubters wrong.

Entering last season, the Reds had made the playoffs in three out of four seasons. Unfortunately, the team had an injury-riddled season and fell apart in the second half of the season.

The team, especially the pitching staff, will look quite different than it did a year ago at this time. Mat Latos, Alfredo Simon and Jonathan Broxton are no longer on the club. In their places, young pitchers will get a chance to show what they can do.

If you look around the web, there aren't many people giving this team a chance. However, don't be fooled. This team still has a strong core and is talented enough to make the postseason. It's up to the players to show it on the field. 

All stats and videos are via MLB.com.

Injury Updates Entering Opening Day

RHP Homer Bailey

Although the hope was that Homer Bailey would be ready for the start of the season, it appears as though the right-hander will miss a start or two.

Bailey underwent surgery late last year to repair a tear in the flexor mass tendon near his right forearm. He made his last start of the season on Aug. 7 but did not have the surgery until early September. The team had hoped that an injection and rest would heal the injury, but in the end, surgery was necessary.

After going through an offseason of rehab, Bailey is working on getting his arm strength back. The 28-year-old has appeared in a minor league game this spring and did not have any issues. Now, he has to work on getting his arm strong enough to handle a heavy workload. 

As of now, Bailey appears to be on track to make his season debut in the middle of April.

LHP Sean Marshall

At this point, Reds fans shouldn't be expecting much out of Sean Marshall.

Marshall had a fantastic first season in Cincinnati in 2012, posting a 2.51 ERA in 73 outings. However, injuries have limited him to just 31 outings over the past two seasons.

The southpaw underwent surgery on his left shoulder in the middle of last season. According to The Cincinnati Enquirer's John Fay, Marshall had a setback early on in spring training. It doesn't appear as though he will be ready anytime soon.

Lineup Preview

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Lineup

1. CF Billy Hamilton

2. 1B Joey Votto

3. 2B Brandon Phillips

4. RF Jay Bruce

5. 3B Todd Frazier

6. LF Marlon Byrd

7. C Devin Mesoraco

8. SS Zack Cozart

9. Pitcher

Bench

C Brayan Pena

OF/2B Skip Schumaker

UT Kristopher Negron

OF Brennan Boesch

INF Chris Dominguez

There is absolutely no question who will be starting in the field for the Reds. The only thing uncertain about the starting eight is what the lineup will look like.

Billy Hamilton will be in the leadoff spot, and Zack Cozart will bat eighth. Outside of those two, the lineup is a mystery. Based on how manager Bryan Price has handled the batting order in spring training, the projected lineup above is the best guess as to what the Opening Day lineup will look like.

Joey Votto is committed to getting on base, so moving him up one spot could give the run producers more chances to drive in runs. Brandon Phillips, who has hit the ball well this spring, does whatever it takes to move runners over and drive in runs. With that approach, he is best suited to hit in the middle of the order.

With Votto, Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, Devin Mesoraco and Marlon Byrd, the Reds have plenty of power in their lineup. Cincinnati is hoping that the acquisition of Byrd is what gets this team back to scoring runs on a consistent basis.

As for the bench, Brayan Pena, Skip Schumaker and Kristopher Negron are all locks. Brennan Boesch, who has hit .351 with three home runs this spring, has hit his way onto the roster. After Jason Bourgeois fractured his shoulder this spring, it appears that Chris Dominguez—who has two homers and five doubles this spring—is the favorite to win the final bench spot.

Overall, this offense should be much more potent than last year's. Getting Bruce and Votto healthy this offseason will go a long way in helping the offense, and adding Byrd's bat will add much needed depth to the bottom half of the lineup.

Rotation Preview

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Rotation

1. RHP Johnny Cueto

2. RHP Mike Leake

3. RHP Anthony DeSclafani

4. RHP Jason Marquis

5. RHP Raisel Iglesias

(Note: RHP Homer Bailey is expected to join the rotation in mid-April.)

After having one of the best rotations in baseball the past few years, Cincinnati enters this season with some uncertainty in its rotation.

The Reds at least know that they have a strong front of the rotation. Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake and, when he returns from injury, Bailey have all proven that they can win games and carry a heavy workload. Cueto won 20 games last season and finished second in the NL Cy Young award voting. Bailey has two no-hitters in his career. Leake has won at least 12 games in three of the past four seasons.

After that trio, the club doesn't know what it's getting out of the back of the rotation.

Anthony DeSclafani and Raisel Iglesias both have plenty of potential but have not been given the opportunity to pitch in the majors every fifth day. That time has come. If those two youngsters live up to expectations, they will help limit the losses of Latos and Simon.

Jason Marquis, on the other hand, has plenty of major league experience. The 36-year-old has made 368 appearances (309 starts) and has a 121-114 record in his career. He hasn't pitched in the majors since 2013, when he went 9-5 with a 4.05 ERA in 20 starts with the San Diego Padres. The Reds are hoping that he can put up similar numbers and bring some veteran leadership to the young rotation.

In 2014, Cincinnati was able to stay in contention for most of the season despite an anemic offense. The team's starting pitchers kept the team in every game and limited the bullpen's workload. As long as the back of the rotation can produce its fair share of quality starts, the Reds should be able to hang in the playoff race all season.

Bullpen Preview

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Bullpen

LHP Aroldis Chapman

LHP Tony Cingrani

RHP Sam LeCure

RHP Burke Badenhop

LHP Manny Parra

RHP Kevin Gregg

RHP Michael Lorenzen

Like the rotation, Cincinnati's bullpen is going to have some fresh faces this season. 

In 2014, Cincinnati's bullpen ranked 26th in ERA (4.11), 30th in wins (11) and tied for 29th in losses (31). All of those rough stats happened while throwing the fewest innings of any bullpen in baseball. Considering all of those numbers, some changes were necessary.

Aroldis Chapman, Sam LeCure and Manny Parra will once again be in the bullpen. Veteran right-hander Burke Badenhop was signed this offseason to give the club a reliable arm to help get the ball to Chapman, which is something the team didn't have consistently last season. Tony Cingrani was in the running to make the rotation but will instead serve as the team's left-handed setup man.

Cincinnati figures to carry seven relievers. The five above should all be in the bullpen come Opening Day. As for the final two spots, there are plenty of candidates.

J.J. Hoover, Jumbo Diaz, Kevin Gregg and Michael Lorenzen may all be getting some consideration this spring. However, some appear to be in better position than others.

Hoover is coming off a rough season in which he went 1-10 with a 4.88 ERA. So far this spring, he looks like that same pitcher. The right-hander has allowed three runs on five hits, two of which were home runs, in just five innings this spring. Given last season's numbers and this year's spring stats, Hoover has likely worked himself out of the mix.

Gregg's strong spring, in which he has allowed just one run in five outings, looks like it will be enough to win him a spot in the bullpen. The right-hander is a former closer, so he can handle high-pressure situations.

As for the final spot, the Reds face an interesting decision. Diaz posted solid numbers last season, so he has at least shown that he can get hitters out. However, the club could use a long man in the bullpen early in the season, especially with unproven starters in the rotation. Lorenzen is viewed as a starter long term but could be used as the long an early on in 2015. The young right-hander has allowed just one run on four hits in eight innings this spring and has impressed with his work ethic.

Having Lorenzen in the bullpen at the start of the season makes sense. It would give the team a long reliever and give the 23-year-old a chance to get his feet wet. Once Bailey returns to the rotation and the starters begin going deep into games, it would make sense to move Lorenzen to the rotation—either in the majors or in the minors—and bring Diaz or Hoover up to the bullpen. 

Last season, the bullpen coughed up runs on a nightly basis. When an offense struggles to score, a shaky bullpen makes it that much tougher to win games. That's why the club has addressed the bullpen since the end of last season.

Outside of Chapman, there aren't any defined roles for relievers yet. That will play out by itself. Price just knows that the bullpen can only go up after last year's unit struggled so mightily. 

Breakout Candidate

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RHP Raisel Iglesias

Now that Latos is gone and Cueto and Leake are both approaching free agency, the Reds need to see what they have in Iglesias. They will be able to get a glimpse of him early on, as he is expected to start the season in the rotation.

Cincinnati signed the Cuban right-hander to a seven-year deal last summer. He doesn't have the same type of hype that Chapman had, but the club expects big things out of him as a starter.

Iglesias has a mid-90s fastball, sharp breaking balls and a changeup. He has the stuff to get major league hitters out but still may need some seasoning before he starts to show why the Reds gave him a lucrative contract.

It remains to be seen how long Iglesias will be in the rotation. With Bailey expected to be back mid-April, Iglesias could be the one to get bumped from the rotation. Cincinnati could then either send him to the bullpen to continue to have him face major league hitting, or the club could send him to Triple-A to continue to develop as a starter. However, if he gets off to a good start, the Reds may have to bump somebody else from the rotation.

Prospects to Watch

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RHP Michael Lorenzen

Although Robert Stephenson has gotten the most attention of any pitcher in Cincinnati's farm system, it's Lorenzen who is the one to keep an eye on.

Lorenzen impressed at Double-A last season, posting a 3.13 ERA in 24 starts. Although that was just his second professional season, it was enough to warrant an invite to major league camp this spring.

The 23-year-old has taken advantage of his opportunity in spring training.

As MLB.com's Mark Sheldon noted, Lorenzen was turning heads early on in camp just by his work ethic. He has only become more impressive as the spring has gone on. The right-hander has allowed just one run on four hits in eight innings this spring.

Lorenzen's impressive spring has put him in position to make the Reds' Opening Day roster. He may be viewed as a starter in the long run, but he could get a chance to get his feet wet in the majors as a reliever, serving as the team's long man.

RHP Robert Stephenson

While it appears that Lorenzen is ready to get a shot in the majors, Stephenson will be given more time to develop.

Stephenson went 7-10 with a 4.75 ERA in 27 games (26 starts) in Double-A in 2014. The right-hander did strike out 140 batters and allowed just 114 hits in 136.1 innings last season, but he struggled with control as he walked 74 batters.

The former first-round pick is entering his fourth professional season and is looking to show that he is ready for the majors. He uses a fastball that can hit the high 90s and a strong curveball as his main pitches, with a changeup also in his arsenal.   

Now, Stephenson will be expected to show that he can throw all of his pitches for strikes consistently. He has the talent, so it's just a matter of putting it all together this year.

Barring injuries to Cincinnati's rotation, Stephenson looks like he is on track to be a September call-up. That will be a chance for him to make a case to be in the 2016 Reds rotation.

Top Keys to Success

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Stay Healthy

Not many teams could have withstood the number of injuries, especially to key players, that Cincinnati had to deal with last season. If the Reds are going to get back to the postseason, staying healthy is the No. 1 key.

Votto (quad), Bruce (knee) and Mesoraco (oblique/hamstring) missed time last year with injuries. Phillips has battled various injuries the past couple of seasons. Of course, Bailey and Marshall are each dealing with injuries right now.

Just look at the names of those who have dealt with injuries recently. Anytime a team loses All-Stars to the disabled list, it's going to have a hard time making up for that production. Injuries limited Bruce's power and also forced the Reds to play without someone who gets on base 40 percent of the time for 100 games. 

For those who doubt this team, just look at what it did when it had its core playing. After Bruce and Votto returned to the lineup, the team played its best baseball of the season. The Reds were 29-33 when Votto returned from the disabled list on June 10. From that point to the time that the 2010 NL MVP went on the disabled list for good, the team went 15-9.

Sure, that's a small sample size. But that shows that the team has the talent to win games consistently when healthy. 

Get Production Out of Rotation Newcomers

The starting rotation has been the strength of the team the past few years, but after a busy offseason, the rotation will be a question mark entering the season.

Cincinnati's rotation ranked third in ERA (3.37) and first in innings pitched (1,023.2) last season. Latos and 2014 NL All-Star Simon were a big part of the rotation's success. Both right-handers are now pitching elsewhere, so the team is looking for some fresh faces to show that they are ready for the show.

DeSclafani, Marquis and Iglesias will start the year in the rotation. DeSclafani and Iglesias are both young pitchers with lots of potential. Marquis, on the other hand, is a veteran pitcher trying to resurrect his career.

Both Latos and Simon learned how to pitch effectively in Great American Ball Park. It's not an easy place to pitch in and can get inside of a pitcher's head. That's something that the newcomers will have to deal with.

The Reds rotation will be anchored by Cueto, Leake and Bailey. If the back of the rotation can put up solid numbers, this team will be able to stay in contention all year.

2015 Cincinnati Reds Season Outlook

Al Behrman/Associated Press

Despite many picking Cincinnati to finish near the cellar of the NL Central, this could be a nice bounce-back season for the Reds.

Key players like Votto, Bruce and Phillips have had time to recover from injuries. Cincinnati finished the 2014 season with 76 wins. Getting Votto, who gets on base 40 percent of the time, and Bruce, who is good for 30 home runs and 90 RBI, back to full strength adds a lot to the club. Factor in the addition of Byrd and a retooled bullpen and this could be a fun summer for Reds fans.

Replacing Latos and Simon won't be easy. There's no getting around that. However, the arms the Reds have to replace those pitchers should be good enough to limit the impact of those losses. 

Let's not forget that the Reds ran into a lot of bad luck last season, whether it be with injuries or losing tight ballgames. The injuries have already been covered. As for the tight ballgames, Cincinnati went 22-38 in one-run games. No other team had more than 30 such losses. If a team loses that many one-run games, that's just bad luck. It also shows that the team was in most games, even with a depleted lineup.

As long as the team stays healthy, Cincinnati has a chance to get back to the postseason. As long as the St. Louis Cardinals continue to reload, they have to be viewed as the favorites in the division. That means the Reds should set their sights on a wild card. 

The offense will be much improved this season, thanks to healthy stars and the addition of Byrd. The bullpen appears to be better than last year's unit, which should help the Reds when it comes to those one-run ballgames. The rotation still has plenty of talented arms to keep the team in contention all season.

Will the Reds make the playoffs? That's a tough question. A few "ifs" have to go their way in order to make that happen. Just don't count this team out, because there is still plenty of talent left on the roster.

Projected record: 83-79