One Issue Potential NBA Playoff Teams Need to Battle
The greatest reset button in the NBA is the beginning of the playoffs. Every team is 0-0 when the postseason starts, regardless of who it's playing. Not everyone has a realistic chance of getting there or doing things there, but each team likely still has unrealistic hopes.
These are the teams clinging to that Lloyd Christmas chance at winning it all—the Nos. 5-10 seeds that are vying to get a playoff berth and/or better position.
For each team, we'll look at its biggest obstacle to fulfilling that dream. They are listed by their seeds as of March 23, Eastern Conference first and Western Conference second.
10. Indiana Pacers: Pass
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The Indiana Pacers, shockingly, are still in contention for the playoffs. Sure, that has something to do with the horrendous situation in the East, but it has something to do with them too. They went into and came out of the All-Star break blazing.
From Feb. 1 to March 12, they were 13-2—the best winning percentage in the league over that span. And their offensive rating was 107.2, fifth-best.
But then the Pacers lost five straight (extended to six Monday night), coinciding with a drop in offensive efficiency. A big part of the reason is they aren't sharing the ball as well. While they were winning, they were averaging 23.7 dimes per game. They had just 19.8 in the first five games of their losing streak.
For a team that is challenged for shot creation, it's crucial that the Pacers continue to move the ball to find open shots. If Indiana wants a pass into the postseason, it's going to have to pass its way in.
10. New Orleans Pelicans: Anthony Davis' Health
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The New Orleans Pelicans are vying for a playoff spot, mostly because of Anthony Davis.
Davis is averaging spectacular numbers: 24.6 points, 10.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.9 blocks and 1.4 steals. The only players who have ever matched those stats in a season are Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, per Basketball-Reference.com.
That's amazing company. And what else is interesting about that list is that in the nine previous times that feat has been accomplished, the only time the player's respective team missed the playoffs was the 1975-76 Los Angeles Lakers headed by Abdul-Jabbar. And that season Abdul-Jabbar was the only MVP winner to ever come from a non-playoff team.
In other words, players who do this tend to make the playoffs. And the Pelicans' chances would be much better right now if Davis weren't beset with injuries. In the 56 games he's played, they are 31-25. In the 14 he's missed, they are 6-8.
For the Pelicans to have any chance of getting back into playoff position, they'll need Davis to stay healthy.
9. Charlotte Hornets: Field-Goal Shooting
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Quick trivia question for you: Who has the best defensive rating in the NBA since the calendar flipped? If you guessed the Charlotte Hornets, you are absolutely correct. Of course, the fact that this is their slide might have given that away.
However, over that same span, whoever they've played has had nearly as awesome of a defense. The Hornets have the third-worst offensive rating. And most of the reason for that is they can't shoot worth a lick.
Their effective field-goal percentage is only 45.8 on the season. Only the Philadelphia 76ers are worse, by just .10 percent—and they're trying to be bad.
While it's easy to pass that off on the time without Kemba Walker, the Hornets' effective field-goal percentage is actually 46.6 percent when he sits and 45.0 percent when he plays.
If they want to get to the playoffs, even in the putrid East, they're going to need to make shots.
9. Phoenix Suns: Keep Rising
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There was a point when it looked like the Phoenix Suns had given up on the playoffs this year. They were in the middle of a span of games where they'd lost eight of nine when they traded away Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas at the deadline to get Marcus Thornton and Brandon Knight.
If ever a team looked like it was cashing in, it was the Suns, right?
Or not. As Suns point guard Archie Goodwin said, per Craig Grialou of KTAR News, "We're in like desperate mode because we dug a hole for ourselves."
Phoenix has been rising from the ashes of late. It has won four straight, including games over the Pelicans, the Houston Rockets and the Dallas Mavericks. The Suns are just 2.5 games behind the Oklahoma City Thunder for the No. 8 seed. That's not insurmountable.
The thing the Suns need to keep, though, is hope. There is no statistic for it, but it's evident by their energy and enthusiasm that they aren't ready to call it quits.
The Suns just need to keep rising. Eric Bledsoe is playing out of his mind, with 20.2 points, 7.4 boards and 6.4 assists over his last five games. The (Markieff and Marcus) Morris Twin powers have been activated. And Brandan Wright has been showing up in spurts.
The Suns may feel that the Thunder injuries give them a chance. And it just might happen—as long as Phoenix keeps fighting. With the toughest remaining schedule in the league, per playoffstatus.com, that could get tough. But the Suns have been beating playoff teams and can continue to do so if they keep the attitude up.
8. Boston Celtics: Steady as She Goes
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Nothing says the Eastern Conference like the possibility of a team eight or nine games under .500 making the playoffs. But that could actually happen. Still, the Boston Celtics might be the best bad team you've ever seen.
They're also just like any other bad team you've ever seen.
Not just from game to game but from quarter to quarter, the Celtics can look like two different squads. Just recently, they rode a 30-point night from Evan Turner to come from behind and beat the Orlando Magic on March 13. On March 1, they watched a 26-point lead dissolve against the Warriors.
The Celtics are what you would expect from a young team: up and down. When they're firing, look out. But when they're not, cover your eyes.
Struggling for a playoff spot is only going to amplify both ends of this. And their coach, Brad Stevens, looks adorably like he's barely old enough to buy a drink legally himself. But the 38-year-old has been proving himself in his second season.
If Stevens can keep the young Celtics on track, Boston could be there when the playoffs start. Don't look for the C's to make waves there, but it's not at all impossible they get there.
8. Oklahoma City Thunder: Russell Westbrook
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Q: What do you call applauding what Russell Westbrook has been doing lately?
A: A Thunderclap!
Sorry for the dad joke. I couldn't resist. But all Westbrook has done lately is everything. Since the All-Star break, he's averaging 31.6 points, 11.3 assists, 9.7 rebounds and 2.3 steals. Oscar Robertson much?
Critics will point out that he's shooting 41.7 percent from the field. His three-point percentage is 33.3. And he's turning the ball over 5.9 times per game.
That said, his true shooting percentage is 54.7. And for a player averaging over 30 points and 10 assists, that is not many turnovers. One thing people fail to recognize is that when a player is shouldering double duty, his turnovers are going to go up. Under six turnovers isn't bad for a guy putting up his numbers.
Players who are relied on for a heavy assist and scoring load have both ball-handling and passing turnovers. Westbrook has the highest usage percentage (38.1) and the highest assist percentage (48.4) in the NBA right now. No one in league history has ever put up close to those numbers. So excuse him if his turnovers are a wee bit high.
But now that Serge Ibaka is out for a while, and there's no idea when Kevin Durant will be back, the Thunder will ride the Westbrook train even harder. And you have to wonder, at what point will too much be asked of one man?
If Westbrook breaks, the Thunder are done.
7. Miami Heat: Caring
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Remember when the Miami Heat were good? It's really weird to think that was only a year ago. But LeBron James went to Cleveland, a good number of "lifelong Heat fans" went with him, and the real Heat fans got their team back.
At the time, I thought it must be like that experience after you've thrown a big party. You had a great time, but now all the guests are gone, the house is a mess and all you can think is, "At least I have my house back."
Sure, the Heat and their fans enjoyed the little visit from the King. But now things are back to normal. And that means struggling through injuries and vying for a bottom seed in the playoffs, where they're surely going to get trounced in five or six games at most.
They know because they've been doing the first-round trouncing for the last four years. So here's the question for the Heat: Do they even care? It's hard to get riled up for a first-round exit when you've been contending for championships.
7. Dallas Mavericks: Chemistry
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I wonder if Donnie Nelson is ready to play the "You didn't say black, black, no trade back" card. Because let's be honest—the Rajon Rondo thing isn't working out too well.
Before the trade, the Mavericks' offensive rating was 113.6, the best in the league by 3.6 points. Since the trade, it's 103.5. When Rondo is on the court, it's a meager 102.8. And the defense, which Dallas brought him in to help, is only half a point better.
The Mavs' record is only 25-19 since the trade. And they don't have the same sense of chemistry. The genius of coach Rick Carlisle is his ability to mix and match lineups and get them to work together. But either the stubbornness of Rondo, the depth they had to give up to get him or the combination of the two has cost the Mavs their chemistry.
And now there's word of Monta Ellis being a "a pain in the butt who isn't producing," according to Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas.com, and that problem might push into the offseason:
"The Mavs have no hope of making it out of the first round, regardless of their draw in the deep Western Conference, if Ellis doesn't heat up. Then, assuming that Ellis opts out of the final year of his contract as expected, the Dallas front office has to figure out how much they're willing to pay to keep an undersized shooting guard who will be 30 next season and has a history of rubbing his teammates the wrong way.
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Unless the Mavericks start clicking together, it's unlikely they regain the No. 6 seed. They have too much of a lead to fall below where they are, but they will be a short lunch for the Memphis Grizzlies if things stay the same.
And, this summer, the Mavericks look like they could be the next dynasty to fall.
6. Milwaukee Bucks: Temper Expectations
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Any criticism of the Milwaukee Bucks' recent play has to be tempered with the reminder that they were the worst team in the NBA last year.
Factor in that their future franchise cornerstone, Jabari Parker, was injured and lost for the season in December, while the Bucks dealt their best player, Brandon Knight, at the trade deadline. In addition, their best defender, Larry Sanders, decided to quit—literally—halfway through the season.
In light of all that, 34-36 isn't so bad. In fact, it's pretty doggone impressive.
Sure, they've struggled since getting Michael Carter-Williams, but bear in mind the starting point and the finish line. The Bucks didn't get him to be a part of a playoff push this year. They got him to be a part of the future building process.
That said, they're going to be in the playoffs this year, and it will be important what they make of that trip. It could be a valuable learning experience, even if they don't win a game, which is a distinct possibility.
It goes against convention, but the Bucks need to not believe in themselves.
6. San Antonio Spurs: Complacency
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The biggest struggle the San Antonio Spurs face is complacency.
The regular season is just something that you have to do to get to where things really matter. The Spurs don't much give a hoot about who they're playing or not playing. They'll take on whoever is in front of them and not much worry about it.
But here's the thing: If the playoffs started today, the Spurs would be playing the Houston Rockets. And of all the teams in the league, the Rockets have the best record against San Antonio the last two years—the Spurs are just 1-5 against Houston.
Complacency kills. Overlooking opponents is how you lose to teams you're better than. It's how San Antonio got ousted by the Memphis Grizzlies in 2011 when the Spurs were the No. 1 seed.
They've been playing with indifference through the season, occasionally rearing up and swatting down some great opponent, just to let people know they can. The most recent evidence was their 114-95 demolition of the Atlanta Hawks.
The Spurs have won 10 of their last 12 and look like they decided to wake up in time for the playoffs, but complacency can still settle in. It's the main thing the Spurs need to fight off.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com/stats.
