NBA Draft 2015: Pro Comparisons for Top 8 Prospects in the Sweet 16
As the top 2015 NBA draft prospects battle toward the culmination of their college seasons, it's time to take a closer look at how their talents translate to the NBA.
Finding pro comparisons for young prodigies can be a tricky endeavor, but it's a great way to get a glimpse of their primary contributions and skills at the next level.
Like comparisons we've done in the past, the correlations are based more on playing style than projected statistics. Some pairings are closer resemblances than others.
The main factors we used when trying to make comparisons include:
Player size: Which includes height, frame and length.
Playing style: Their movements on the court, their fluidity or rigidity and tendencies.
Potential skills: What kind of ball skills or defensive skills could they display in their prime?
Role and impact: What role will they play on their pro team, and what kind of statistical production can we expect?
Players ranked based on overall draft value.
8. Jerian Grant, Notre Dame PG (6'5", Senior)
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NBA Comparison: Terry Porter
With a habit for slashing into the paint and attacking the basket fearlessly, Jerian Grant turned Notre Dame into an offensive juggernaut and amplified his draft stock this year. When he's in attack mode, he can hurt the defense with a driving layup, a slick assist or pull-up jumper.
His uncontainable speed and triple-threat playing style reminded NBADraft.net of Portland Trail Blazers playmaker Terry Porter. Grant may be a little more vertically rangy and athletic than Porter, but the comparison is apt because they both can swiftly score in traffic or hit big shots from the outside.
And like Porter, Grant's shiftiness and scoring grit often overshadow his ability to diagnose plays and distribute the ball.
"He has a brilliant basketball mind,” Irish coach Mike Brey told David Gardner of Sports Illustrated. “He’s like a computer out there."
Grant's draft stock has been held in check partly because he'll turn 23 when his rookie year tips off, and that's understandable. But he'll be well worth a lottery pick if he scores 15-17 points and drops 7-10 dimes per night like Porter did.
7. Kevon Looney, UCLA PF (6'9", Freshman)
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NBA Comparison: Lamar Odom/Bob McAdoo hybrid
Plenty of fans want Kevon Looney to be the next Kevin Durant, but it just isn't fair.
The lanky 6'9" freshman has inside-out scoring potential, but he's nowhere near the type of player KD was at Texas. And it's highly unlikely he'll sniff Durant's skill mastery and colossal production.
Don't worry; I'm still setting the bar high for him. His favorable comparison is a blend of Lamar Odom and Bob McAdoo.
Like Odom, Looney will snag rebounds, handle the rock and make timely passes and shots. He won't dominate the ball, but he'll be able to make simple slashes and attack the glass in key spots for his club. Neither player is a great athlete, but they're both mobile and present matchup problems for opponents.
Sprinkle in McAdoo's rebounding and talent for rising up and shooting over foes, and you've got a promising young prospect. It's hard to tell how his game would translate to the 21st century, but the five-time All-Star crashed the glass and hit shots from any spot on the floor.
While the Looney-KD advocates might be disappointed, fans of the UCLA prodigy should be excited that his future could resemble Odom and McAdoo.
6. Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin PF/C (7'0", Senior)
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NBA Comparison: Brad Miller
There isn't a player who exemplifies Frank Kaminsky's NBA future more than Brad Miller, although they're not carbon copies.
The Wisconsin center has a chance to be an even better shooter, but their skill sets are mostly the same. Miller was a great-but-not-spectacular big man who could play near or away from the basket. His smooth shooting stroke extended out to three-point land, and he could also beat opponents off the dribble or in the post.
Kaminsky's movements and versatility as a 7-footer are quite comparable, and they might even be better. Whereas Miller shot more long two-point jumpers than triples, Kaminsky will likely stay behind the line more often than he shoots 18-footers.
From a statistical standpoint, the Badger star should land somewhere around Miller's production: 13-15 points and 6-8 rebounds per game, assuming he plays 28-30 minutes during his prime.
However, you can bet Kaminsky will deliver a higher three-point percentage. Miller averaged 33 percent for his career, and I'd be surprised if Kaminsky hit less than 37 or 38 percent of his attempts.
5. Justise Winslow, Duke SF (6'6", Freshman)
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NBA Comparison: Jimmy Butler
When Justise Winslow slashes to the hoop, he looks a lot like fellow lefty James Harden. But when you watch how he impacts every area of the game, including defense, he reminds me more of Chicago Bulls wing Jimmy Butler.
Butler was my comparison for Winslow back in December, and he plays even more like him now in March.
During Duke's early-round victories against Robert Morris and San Diego State, Winslow made a bevy of game-changing plays and filled several different roles for coach Mike Krzyzewski. That's what Butler does for Chi-town; he's rangy yet strong, and he can attack opponents as a driver or defender.
DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony noted the two-way similarities on Sunday while Winslow helped the Blue Devils advance to the Sweet 16.
"Justise Winslow (is) doing his best Jimmy Butler impression," Givony said. "Defending, rebounding, making great post-entry passes, scoring in transition. Stud."
As Duke's youngster polishes his game and expands his basketball IQ, he and the Bulls star are going to have a lot in common.
4. Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky C (7'0", Junior)
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NBA Comparison: Tyson Chandler
Willie Cauley-Stein has reminded NBA scouts and fans of Tyson Chandler for a while now, and it's still the best pairing for him.
In his heyday, Chandler was the most explosive 7-footer in the league. His vertical athleticism enabled him to block shots, keep possessions alive and flush home alley-oops. Meanwhile, his horizontal springs allowed him to switch out onto guards and contain pick-and-rolls.
That sounds a lot like Cauley-Stein, right?
Like Chandler, Kentucky's big fella is not a multidimensional offensive player. Anything more than a putback or dunk is a bonus, and he won't create much off the dribble. That being said, I think Cauley-Stein has the potential to make a few more plays than Chandler in the future.
They're not flashy or highly skilled, but they're so valuable. You only have to look at Chandler's critical role in Dallas' 2011 crown to see why Cauley-Stein is coveted as a top-10 pick.
3. Stanley Johnson, Arizona SF (6'7", Freshman)
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NBA Comparison: Ron Artest/Andre Iguodala hybrid
Arizona's Stanley Johnson has a terrifying blend of strength, length, athleticism and skill versatility. He looks a lot like a couple of the most dynamic wings of this era: Ron Artest and Andre Iguodala.
We're talking about Artest and Iggy in their primes. Johnson can break down opponents off the bounce, finish forcefully above the crowd, and defend and rebound powerfully.
In the open floor, he rarely encounters any obstacles, and he'll routinely make dynamic plays in the NBA's uptempo style. During half-court scenarios, his rapidly developing handles and surprisingly effective jump shooting will make him a well-balanced player.
On the other end of the floor, he displays vivid similarities to Artest and Iguodala. Johnson weighs a rock-solid 240-plus pounds, and he owns a condor-like 6'11.5" wingspan.
He doesn't always exhibit perfect fundamentals, but he's a tenacious defensive asset when he's dialed in. It won't be long before he's checking his NBA opponents' best player, whether he's a point guard or forward.
2. Jahlil Okafor, Duke C (6'11", Freshman)
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NBA Comparison: Tim Duncan
People don't casually hand out Tim Duncan comparisons to college prospects.
That must mean this Jahlil Okafor kid from Duke is worth the fuss, because he's drawn plenty of comparisons to the Big Fundamental.
Okafor has also been linked to Al Jefferson, and there's definitely a correlation there. But as an overall player, he shares a greater number of similarities with Duncan.
The likenesses start with Okafor's low-post footwork and touch. He uses a handful of crisp back-to-the-basket moves and uses his size, quickness and timing to score over challengers. There is rarely wasted movement or gyrations, much like the San Antonio Spurs star. They are middle-tier athletes whose successes are predicated on angles more than explosiveness.
The towering Blue Devil also shows tangible potential to share Duncan's deft passing skills. He's dishing more assists per 40 minutes as a freshman than the Wake Forest legend did, and he'll be a superb distributor within the right system.
Okafor is unlikely to reach Duncan's talent or savvy as a defender. But when he joins better perimeter teammates than the ones he has at Duke, he'll be a much more effective rim protector.
1. Karl Towns, Kentucky PF/C (7'0", Freshman)
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NBA Comparison: Chris Webber/Rasheed Wallace hybrid
As he spearheads Kentucky's pursuit of a national crown, freshman Karl Towns reminds me of another young college star who went on to flourish in the NBA.
His dexterity, athleticism and assertiveness around the hoop are reminiscent of Chris Webber. The Sacramento Kings star could face up and attack the basket, post up to score or make sweet passes to cutters and shooters.
Maxwell Ogden of Hoops Habit explained how Towns' versatility could translate to a career like C-Webb's: "He’s very Chris Webber-like in the sense that he’s skilled offensively, runs the floor well, blocks shots and can step outside for a three-point field goal."
Towns' defensive tenacity, quick feet and combo of shooting and passing also mimic Rasheed Wallace. 'Sheed was not an All-Star for most of his career, but he was an exceptionally valuable two-way player who anchored some dangerous Portland Trail Blazers and Detroit Pistons squads.
If Towns comes close to achieving this Webber/Wallace hybrid, he'll be well worth the No. 1 pick.
Daniel O'Brien covers the NBA draft for Bleacher Report.
Follow him on Twitter: @DanielO_BR
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