Ranking the Top 10 Free-Agent Targets During the 2015 NBA Offseason
Frenzied free-agent spending can set an NBA franchise back for years. But smart shopping can offer the most instant gratification in the business.
One check of the league standings highlights the importance of free agency. Would the Golden State Warriors have found their two-way balance without the steady play of Andre Iguodala? Would the Atlanta Hawks be anywhere near as difficult to defend had they not plucked Paul Millsap from the free-agent market?
Would the Cleveland Cavaliers even be a playoff team if LeBron James hadn't decided it was time to go home?
Free agency is such a critical component of building a successful roster. Just ask 13-time world champion—and New York Knicks president of basketball operations—Phil Jackson.
"We know what the first-round pick is going to mean for us, but we also know we're going to build our team with free agents," Jackson said recently, per ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne. "A hundred and ninety players or so are going to be free agents. Not half the league, but like a third of the league is going to be free agents. So that's where our priority stands."
Sifting through all those resumes can be an exhaustive task. But we're here to help.
By breaking down the relevant numbers—raw production, efficiency and age—and relying on our old friend the eye test, we've put together a buyer's guide of the top 10 targets in the 2015 free-agent class. When Jackson and his executive peers go browsing in a few months, these players deserve their attention.
Honorable Mentions
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LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
In what world is four-time MVP LeBron James ever worthy of merely an honorable mention? In the one that recognizes he isn't going anywhere. It seems likely he'll decline his $21.57 million player option for next season. And it seems just as certain he'll only do so to ink a new deal with Cleveland and then repeat the process once the salary cap explodes with the new TV money in 2016.
Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
Any drama that exists in Tim Duncan's future won't extend beyond the Alamo City. The 38-year-old is on the final year of his contract and might decide he doesn't want another one. But if he does, the San Antonio Spurs franchise face will simply reprise the same role he's played since 1997.
Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
There's a reason it's difficult to even imagine Dwyane Wade in a different uniform. The ruler of Wade County is not leaving the Miami Heat. The fact this roster has grown more intriguing as the season has progressed with Hassan Whiteside's rise and Goran Dragic's arrival has only solidified that stance. Wade might pass on his $16.12 million player option, but only to take a longer contract with his team.
10. Al Jefferson, C, Charlotte Hornets
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Free-Agency Type: Player Option
2014-15 Salary: $13.5 million
Notable Numbers: 17.2 points, 8.6 rebounds, 20.0 PER
Al Jefferson isn't having as productive a season as he did last year, and neither are the Charlotte Hornets. But he remains one of the league's best bullies on the low block, combining strength, solid footwork and a kitten-soft touch around the basket.
At 30 years old, his best days are probably behind him. And not every team is built to accommodate an old-school, back-to-the-basket scorer.
But those that are could get near-elite production at a relatively reasonable price. Just last season, he was one of only four players to average at least 21 points and 10 boards. Even this year, he's one of just six clearing 17 and 8.5.
He has improved his defense over the years, and he's always been an efficient source of offense and a steady presence on the glass. If he opts to test the market, he should have a solid number of suitors looking for value in the second tier.
9. Greg Monroe, PF, Detroit Pistons
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Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Salary: $5.47 million
Notable Numbers: 16.0 points, 10.4 rebounds, 21.1 PER
Like most things with the Detroit Pistons, Greg Monroe's campaign is best broken down into time segments: before and after Josh Smith's release.
Detroit's oversized, non-shooting frontcourt clogged up traffic in the paint. When Smith was still around, Monroe put up a forgettable 14.7 points on 48.2 percent shooting, 8.8 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game. The Moose could never get loose, and his box scores bore the damage.
But in the 38 games Monroe has played since Smith's departure, he's barely resembled the same player. His counting stats have all improved (16.9 points, 11.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists), and his shooting efficiency has also jumped (50.5 percent).
He isn't the easiest guy to build around in today's league. He can't stretch the floor, lacks mobility and offers virtually nothing in terms of rim protection.
That being said, he's skilled in the low post, crafty as a scorer and a capable and willing passer. He does a lot of things well right now, and at only 24 years old, he still has time to expand his arsenal.
8. DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers
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Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Salary: $11.44 million
Notable Numbers: 11.2 points, 14.8 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, 20.5 PER
Los Angeles Clippers center DeAndre Jordan is a raw-numbers kind of guy. In his case, that isn't necessarily a bad thing because the quantity of his production often borders on the absurd.
He's currently on track to lead the NBA in field-goal percentage for the third straight season (70.9) and pace it in rebounds for the second. He's the only player to have three 20-point, 20-rebound games this year. And he has more games with multiple blocks (44) than everyone not named Rudy Gobert.
"He's clearly the defensive player of the year," Clippers coach Doc Rivers said of Jordan, per ESPNLosAngeles.com Arash Markazi. "If anybody else gets that award, we need to have an investigation."
Take Rivers' words with a substantial amount of salt. He's not only Jordan's coach but also the executive who will need to re-sign the big guy this summer to keep his core intact. Jordan's rebound and block totals should get him in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation, but digging below the basics reveals more deserving candidates.
But Jordan's skill set is still a valuable one. His length and athleticism are pivotal pieces of the pick-and-roll game on either end of the floor. His offensive limitations keep him from ranking any higher here, but the 26-year-old brings enough positives to warrant a spot on this list.
7. Draymond Green, PF, Golden State Warriors
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Free-Agency Type: Restricted
2014-15 Salary: $0.91 million
Notable Numbers: 11.8 points, 8.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 16.5 PER
It's one of the NBA's best multimillion dollar questions: Is Draymond Green simply a system player, or is he one of the key reasons the Golden State Warriors' league-best system works? Opinions are wildly split on the matter.
One scout told Bleacher Report's Howard Beck that Green is "a product of the system" and only "situationally [valuable]." ESPN analyst and former NBA coach Jeff Van Gundy, meanwhile, says he thinks Green will "be a max [contract] player," per ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss.
The problem with Green is that his presence can be hard to detect in the box score. A lot of his greatest strengths—intelligence, defensive versatility, intensity, leadership—don't show up on the stat sheet.
But it's hard to think of a team he wouldn't significantly improve. He guards all five positions, is an excellent passer, battles on the boards and scores both as a spot-up shooter and off the dribble.
Whatever itch a club has, Green can probably scratch it. And at 25 years old, he'll keep scratching it for a long time.
6. Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs
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Free-Agency Type: Restricted
2014-15 Salary: $3.05 million
Notable Numbers: 15.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.2 steals, 20.8 PER
It's a good year for glue guys and a great time to be able to thrive in multiple roles. Reigning NBA Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard checks off both boxes now and seems capable of doing so much more going forward.
He's a defensive pest, the league leader in thefts and a smart player who won't find himself out of position. He plays like a complementary scorer at the other end but shows flashes of primary potential. He averaged 23.7 points on 68.7 percent shooting the final three games of last season's championship series and has tallied 20 points on 53.1 percent shooting over his last 10 outings.
But, like Green, he's another tough player to read. It's hard to tell whether the San Antonio Spurs are limiting his production or making it more efficient. Everyone has a defined role in coach Gregg Popovich's system, and the 23-year-old hasn't had the chance to show what he can do outside of it.
Then again, maybe that isn't as concerning as it sounds. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team that doesn't want a lockdown perimeter defender who consistently rains down three-point bombs, viciously attacks the rim, shares the basketball and rebounds at a high level.
5. Goran Dragic, PG, Miami Heat
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Free-Agency Type: Player Option
2014-15 Salary: $7.5 million
Notable Numbers: 16.4 points, 4.4 assists, 50.7 field-goal percentage, 17.8 PER
It would have been tough to imagine this scenario just a few seasons back. And that applies both to the fact that Goran Dragic has played his way into becoming a household name and clearly emerged as the top point guard in a free-agent class that includes Rajon Rondo.
Dragic's numbers have taken a hit from his All-NBA third-team campaign last season, but that may have happened through no fault of his own. The Phoenix Suns put too many hands in their point guard pot, and Dragic has since been forced to adjust on the fly in his new home with the Miami Heat.
Besides, this "down" year would be a career one for a lot of players. He is the only guard who is averaging at least 16 points and shooting better than 50 percent from the field. Exclusivity seems to be his thing. Last season, he was the only player to put up at least 20 points and five assists while shooting 50 percent from the field and 40 percent from three.
Pat Riley could be building a dragon's lair in South Beach, but he'll need to complete construction quickly. Any team with a point guard vacancy will be coming hard after Dragic, who's only 28 years old.
4. Jimmy Butler, SG, Chicago Bulls
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Free-Agency Type: Restricted
2014-15 Salary: $2.11 million
Notable Numbers: 20.2 points, 5.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 21.3 PER
There aren't many higher honors for an NBA player than to be labeled as a two-way star. And few players are more deserving of that title than Chicago Bulls swingman Jimmy Butler.
"He does it on both ends of the floor," Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau said earlier this season, per ESPNChicago.com's Nick Friedell. "He's just an amazing player. ... He just got out there, he's smart, he's tough, he does whatever the team needs."
Thibs obviously has a rooting interest in Butler, but the numbers back up the coach's words. Butler truly does it all.
He's one of only 10 players averaging at least 20 points, 5.5 boards, three assists and 1.5 steals. A former All-Defensive second-team selection, he'll take on—and typically shut down—the toughest defensive assignment in the opposing backcourt.
His hustle and tenacity alone would have scored him a major payday this summer. But the 25-year-old is about to rake in Monopoly money now that he's also a 20-point scorer and 46 percent shooter.
3. Kevin Love, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Free-Agency Type: Player Option
2014-15 Salary: $15.71 million
Notable Numbers: 16.6 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 19.1 PER
Kevin Love could swing this ranking in either direction. It all depends on how much one should read into his first season with the Cavaliers.
It hasn't been a bad one by any stretch. He ranks in the top 20 in threes (123, tied for 16th) rebounds per game (10.4, 10th) and win shares (8.0, 14th). He's lost a lot of volume, but he's still doing things no one else does. He's the only player in the entire league who is pouring in at least 16 points, grabbing at least 10 boards and drilling at least 1.5 threes per game.
But his offensive numbers aren't what they were in Minnesota (26.1 points, 12.5 rebounds, 4.4 assists last season). And the 26-year-old's defensive struggles aren't likely to go away with age.
Neither his past nor his present is particularly revealing about his future. He's proved he can be the best player on a non-playoff team and the No. 3 option on a contender. He's also had multiple bouts with the pesky injury bug.
He's obviously a world-class talent. When his offense is right, it's some of the best in the business. But the uncertainty of whether this is just a transitional year or the sign of who he is when there's a title at stake makes it impossible for him to rank above the top two players on this list.
2. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, Portland Trail Blazers
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Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Salary: $15.20 million
Notable Numbers: 23.5 points, 10.4 rebounds, 37.3 three-point percentage, 22.8 PER
LaMarcus Aldridge has been a tough cover from almost the second he stepped foot on the NBA hardwood. He's a beast on the low block and a marksman from mid-range.
But the 6'11" forward has become even harder to handle in his ninth season, thanks to a newfound willingness to let it fly. Aldridge had never previously attempted more than 28 triples in a single season. He's made 31 threes already and cashed in those looks at better than a 37 percent clip.
How do you defend a guy who's capable of scoring from anywhere on the court? Apparently, you don't. Aldridge's scoring average is the sixth highest in the league. He also ranks inside the top 10 in both rebounds per game (eighth) and PER (eighth).
And he's a team leader in every sense of the term. How many other players would decide to delay surgery on a torn ligament in his thumb during the final stretch of a contract year?
The 29-year-old is a great offensive player and a very good one defensively. But the top player on this list slightly edges him out in versatility.
1. Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies
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Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Salary: $15.82 million
Notable Numbers: 17.7 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 21.8 PER
Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol doesn't shoot threes. And with that single sentence, we've already exhausted his list of "weaknesses."
Now let's talk about his strengths: literally everything else that takes place inside the lines.
"He passes, he scores, he defends, he rebounds: as such, he can turn a team around in short order as the focal point on both offense and defense," wrote ESPN Insider Amin Elhassan.
Gasol can outmuscle his defenders, outwork them or outsmart them. He can carry an offense as either a scorer or distributor. He's an unbelievably intelligent defender, a mastermind when it comes to positioning, anticipation and instincts. He sees plays before they happen, the true mark of a superstar in any sport.
The Grizzlies will do everything they can to keep the 30-year-old around this offseason—as they should. But he'll be sitting atop a number of wish lists, so Memphis can only hope he likes what he sees in this team's future.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com. Salary information obtained via HoopsHype.com.
