5 Key Issues That Will Decide the Premier League's Top-Four Race
Barring Chelsea and Leicester City—who have 27 points to capture—there are 24 points left to grab for every club in the Premier League.
The difference between a great season and one that finishes in tatters will be realised over the next eight games, and nowhere is this more apparent than at the top.
Chelsea are not at the peak of their game, but the Blues maintain a six-point gap over Manchester City. Manuel Pellegrini's men hope to have corrected their Burnley wrong against the 10 men of West Bromwich Albion. Nipping at the holder's heels in third are red-hot Arsenal; the Gunners have not lost since in the Premier League since 7 February.
Knotted at sixth and seventh are Southampton and Tottenham Hotspur (only separated by goal difference at 53 points). One point better is Liverpool in fifth. The Reds could have taken the fourth spot on Sunday, but they were beaten by a rapidly coming together Manchester United—who, if the season ended today, would be playing Champions League football in 2015/16.
With seven teams challenging, there are many factors in determining which clubs get what.
Taking the top five teams (Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United and Liverpool) we look at how each club could affect or influence the top-four positions and their all-important sequencing.
Can Brendan Rodgers Timely Balance Daniel Sturridge and Raheem Sterling's Roles?
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Daniel Sturridge missed 19 consecutive Premier League matches with a confluence of thigh and hamstring setbacks. Over the first portion of those 19 games, Liverpool struggled mightily—taking eight points from nine fixtures over one stretch.
Then Brendan Rodgers found the 3-4-3. He played Raheem Sterling through the middle, introduced Adam Lallana, gave Jordan Henderson a bigger leadership role and allowed Philippe Coutinho to be an overt attacker. Liverpool, in Sturridge's absence, from 21 December to 17 January took 14 of 18 EPL points on offer.
Introduce Sturridge on 31 January: Starting five games—finishing 90 minutes only twice—Liverpool continued their unbeaten run of 13 matches until meeting Manchester United on 22 March. Sturridge simply needs game time to get sharp and find his rampant goalscoring boots, but the person most affected by his reintroduction is Sterling.
Finding his own rhythm as a "No. 9," the 20-year-old must now readjust to the midfield. Probably finding the life of a striker easier than chasing wingers and full-backs, this alteration for Sterling could mean more goals for opponents than Liverpool in the short term, especially with Sturridge still recovering fitness.
Not a great combination as matches are thinning.
Will Louis van Gaal Continue with His Newfound Best XI?
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Paying £59.7 million for a footballer normally means he starts. Similarly, paying a footballer £265,000 per week (via The Telegraph's Mark Ogden) normally means he starts—not at Manchester United.
After going through an untold number of formations and more than 30 different players, Louis van Gaal seems to have found something that works. Unfortunately for 2014 summer transfer window dealings Angel Di Maria (bought from Real Madrid) and Radamel Falcao (loaned from AS Monaco), they have been consigned to the bench.
Employing a 4-3-3 variant, Van Gaal has given Wayne Rooney his rightful position as centre-forward, made Marouane Fellaini a target man and allowed Juan Mata freedom to play centrally and on the right flank, while Michael Carrick pulls strings from deeper midfield.
Beating Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool in consecutive matches—by a goal difference of four—it appears the Dutch manager has at last found a working formula and would be reckless in tampering with this system as a top-four finish is monumentally vital.
How the return of compatriot Robin van Persie from injury affects Van Gaal's thinking will be key to monitor as the season reaches its denouement—as it could mean Rooney returning to midfield, and either Ander Herrera or Mata being dropped.
Can Arsenal's Current Form Hold Against Other Top-Four Challengers?
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Currently the Premier League's form side—winning six consecutive matches and nine of their last 10—Arsenal have certainly corrected their midseason hydroplane. Arsene Wenger will know, however, his club have only played two high-profile matches over this brilliant stretch.
Beating Manchester City 2-0 at the Etihad was (to date) Arsenal's best result of the 2014/15 season, but against their only other top opponent in the past 10 fixtures—north London rivals Tottenham Hotspur—the Gunners lost. Comprising the other eight matches were Stoke City, Aston Villa, Leicester City, Crystal Palace, Everton, Queens Park Rangers, West Ham United and Newcastle United—whose average league position is 14th.
Starting 4 April, Wenger's slate becomes more arduous. While still having a few lower-placed opponents to parse, Arsenal play host to Liverpool and Chelsea, then visit Manchester United's Old Trafford in their Premier League schedule's penultimate match—all while balancing the FA Cup.
Dispatching clubs they should has been commonplace during Wenger's Arsenal tenure; when the Gunners are matched with equal or greater talent, only then can we properly judge how they stack up to their top-four competitors.
Are Manchester City and Manuel Pellegrini Contenders or Pretenders?
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An argument exists defending a championship is more difficult than winning one. Manchester City may be finding this notion truthful for the second time in three seasons.
Having targets on their backs all season, Manuel Pellegrini's side have received the best from most of their competitors, based largely on the fact they hold the crown; this added pressure has not exactly worked in the Citizens' favour, who have been porous since the new year—dropping 15 of 30 available EPL points since beating Sunderland on 1 January.
Thought to be outright title contenders with Chelsea at the outset of 2014/15, Man City have regressed to being top-four challengers more than anything. Six points off the Blues, playing one game more, City are closer to cross-town rivals Manchester United in fourth than retaining the Premier League.
Possessing the easiest run-in of each top-seven club, however, Pellegrini's men only have three tough fixtures remaining on their schedule—Man United (A), Tottenham Hotspur (A) and Southampton (H).
Successful navigation of those waters and second place should be theirs; but in the event they stumble, Arsenal, United, Liverpool, Tottenham and/or Saints will be waiting to pick up the pieces.
Will Chelsea Have Anything to Play for Come May?
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At its current pace, Chelsea require 19 points from their last nine matches to be crowned Premier League champions. This would take, in the quickest possible fashion, seven matches—whether seven straight victories or a draw and six wins.
These numbers are contingent on the Blues' next-closest competitor, Manchester City, taking maximum points from their last eight games. As the Citizens closing the season with nine consecutive wins seems rather unlikely, the target of 19 points will—in all likelihood—reduce for the west Londoners.
What does this mean for the top-four race?
Chelsea close the 2014/15 campaign with Liverpool (H), West Bromwich Albion (A) and Sunderland (H). Should Jose Mourinho have the requisite points by 9 May (when the Reds visit Stamford Bridge) resting players and using the Blues' reserves/academy players could be an option for the Portuguese—leaving Liverpool at a decisive advantage.
In accruing points necessary to win the title, Chelsea play Manchester United (H) and Arsenal (A) in April; should the Blues beat (or take points from) their top-four rivals and secure the EPL crown before facing Liverpool, Rodgers and Co. could make up for lost ground when they otherwise might not.
*Stats via WhoScored.com; transfer fees via Soccerbase.com where not noted.
