Brendan Rodgers vs. Louis Van Gaal: Breaking Down the Dugout Battle
When Brendan Rodgers and Louis van Gaal's sides last met, the scoresheet recorded a clear win for the Dutchman in the dugout battle.
Manchester United beat Liverpool 3-0, offering a pleasing symmetry for United fans who had suffered the ignominy of a 3-0 home defeat to their archrivals the season before.
However, the scoreline hardly told the full story of the tactical encounter between the two coaches.
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Time and again, United's back three were breached. A combination of David De Gea's now-typical heroics and their strikers' profligate finishing meant Liverpool's 15 chances created amounted to nothing. United, for their part, were clinical, scoring three of their seven chances, per Squawka.com.
Possession was shared fairly equally in that game, too, 51.1 percent to 48.9 percent in United's favour, per WhoScored. All this is by way of saying that in spite of the final score, it was not a game which reflected a major tactical victory for Van Gaal. Rodgers did not do too much wrong in setting up his Liverpool side.
Perhaps using Raheem Sterling as his centre-forward was a risk that did not pay off, but many of the chances Liverpool created were as a result of Sterling using his pace to unsettle United's shaky back three.
That game marked a profound turning point in the season for Liverpool.
After their win that day, the Red Devils were third in the table, and the Merseysiders languished in 11th. Since then, Rodgers has engineered a resurgence in his side's fortunes.
By 15 December 2014 (the day after the clash), Liverpool had earned an average of just 1.31 points per Premier League game. Since then, they have earned points at a remarkable 2.54 points per game.
They have not been beaten in the league since that day, and if the season had started then, they would be two points clear at the top of the table.
United would be fifth, although their average number of points per game has changed little—from 1.94 points per game beforehand to 1.92 points per game since.
Much of Liverpool's change in fortune has coincided with a change in system. Rodgers has regularly deployed a back three since that encounter.
Van Gaal's United—for the most part—looked unsettled when playing with a back three. Rodgers' Liverpool, on the other hand, have been vastly more solid at the back since switching systems.
They have conceded just 8 goals in the 13 games since the two sides last met. Since that game, they have been conceding at a rate of 0.61 goals per game, compared with the 1.37 goals per game they were conceding by full time on 14 December 2014.
They have been scoring more freely, too. United's attacking prowess often looked neutered by playing 3-5-2. Liverpool, on the other hand, were scoring 1.18 goals per game by the end of their loss to United but have been scoring at a rate 1.84 goals per game since.
Back in February, Richard Jolly of ESPN FC wrote of Liverpool's resurgence and the new system:
"The revival of what threatened to be a wretched season seems to be proof of Rodgers' footballing intellect and a triumph of creative thinking. And yet the rethink is yet to pass the test of time. This could be a quick fix, a fad that was soon forgotten, or the shape of Liverpool for years to come.
"
A month and a half on, and the formation has remained in place and remained effective.
In an interview for Liverpool's official website published on Thursday, striker Daniel Sturridge said:
"It [the formation] is working. Everyone is defending very well, Si [Mignolet] is doing extremely well also. It's great to see and long may it continue."
That Liverpool have enjoyed a settled system since December—and that it has been so successful—stands in stark contrast to Van Gaal's United.
Van Gaal has continued to experiment with the occasional back three and various systems using a back four—a diamond midfield, a straight 4-4-2 on occasion and a couple of games playing 4-2-3-1. None of them have been completely successful in addressing the question of how to get the best out of United's squad.
He may finally have found the answer.
Watching last Sunday's victory over Tottenham Hotspur, it seemed clear that it was United's best performance of the season.
Gary Neville agreed. Discussed the performance and tactics on Sky Sports, he said:
"I don't think he'll be changing that too quickly because that was head and shoulders Manchester United's best performance of the season. The tempo in the play today was far better than it has been at any point."
Neville also pointed out that 4-3-3 was "probably what everyone expected" United would play under Van Gaal.
The Dutchman has tried 4-3-3 before this season, as he pointed out to Sky Sports after the Tottenham game, saying:
"The first system was I played with three defenders, the second system was this. I played it against Man City, Chelsea and a third one. But we didn't do this what we have done today.
It is a matter of time and process. Maybe now is the game that gives us a fantastic boost.
"
In truth, 4-3-3 was not Van Gaal's second system, as he had used a diamond midfield against Queens Park Rangers, Everton and West Ham United before the Manchester City game saw the switch to 4-3-3.
Rodgers' Liverpool are clearly in excellent form. For the most part, their performances have been as good as their results.
United's recent league form is decent, too. However, when Neville says the Spurs game was "head and shoulders" ahead of United's other league performances, it is hard to argue he was being hyperbolic.
Van Gaal's side have attracted plenty of criticism for their style of play, and many of his star players have underperformed. Robin van Persie, Angel Di Maria and Radamel Falcao have all struggled with their form this season. Wayne Rooney and Juan Mata have often been used away from their best positions on the pitch, limiting their impact.
If the Spurs game marks a turning point in the team's performance, then United will have little to fear in spite of their daunting run in. Falcao, Van Persie and Di Maria may have to be content to sit on the sidelines, given they were all absent from United's most functional performance yet under Van Gaal.
Rodgers will be desperately hoping the Spurs game was an aberration for United, though.
The game at Anfield is absolutely crucial for both managers' seasons, given two points separates their sides in the battle for Champions League qualification.
It will be intriguing to see if either coach makes specific alternations to account for their opponent. Will Van Gaal deploy the personnel and system that were so successful against Tottenham? Will Rodgers veer away from the 3-4-3 that has brought Liverpool so much success?
After this game is over, the two sides have similar run-ins, with United's made slightly tougher by having to play all of the sides currently in the top three. Liverpool will have to play just two of them. The rest of both clubs' games are against teams currently in the bottom half of the table.
A draw would be a much better result for Van Gaal than it would be for Rodgers, given United's current point advantage. A win for Liverpool would heap pressure on Van Gaal and his men as they desperately try to reestablish themselves as a Champions League club.
A win for United would see Van Gaal in the catbird seat for qualification. If that win could be combined with a decent performance, the possibility of bettering a fourth place finish could start to look realistic.
United vs. Liverpool is always an important game. For both coaches, this time around, even more than usual is riding on it. The dugout battle is likely to be tense.
Points, goals, and goals conceded per game averages were compiled using custom tables from Statto.com.
