Is Alabama or Auburn Set Up for Better 2015 College Football Season?
The winner of the Iron Bowl has played in either the BCS National Championship or the College Football Playoff in each of the last six seasons, and the 2015 edition of college football's biggest rivalry already looks like it could be one for the ages.
The two SEC West heavyweights from the Yellowhammer State enter 2015's spring practice dancing around the top 10 of many "way-too-early" top-25 rankings, and will undoubtedly be in the mix for the College Football Playoff once toe meets leather this fall.
There are problems to solve, though.
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Alabama has to replace nine starters from last year's offense and must fix a secondary that's been struggling for two seasons, while Auburn has to replace its starting quarterback, top running back and fix a defense that hasn't finished in the top half of the SEC in total defense since 2007.
Which one is set up better, though?
It's Alabama, by a nose.
"I think by Alabama not changing philosophies on either side of the ball, obviously puts them a little ahead of the curve," said Cole Cubelic, host on WUMP 730 in Huntsville, Alabama, and analyst on the SEC Network. "Even though I think they're going to have some real issues in the secondary, they're still running the same systems and they've recruited well. To me, that'd give them a slight advantage."
Plus, it's already clear that Alabama can win at a high level despite its major problems. Auburn simply can't overcome its issues and play at the same nationally competitive level.
The Crimson Tide played in the Allstate Sugar Bowl national semifinal last year with a defensive backfield that, quite simply, got torched. Despite Cyrus Jones' improvement from Game 1 through Game 14—which was tremendous—head coach Nick Saban and defensive coordinator Kirby Smart's defense gave up an SEC-worst 133 passing plays of 10 or more yards.
That cost them in New Orleans, as Ohio State quarterback Cardale Jones lit up Alabama to the tune of 13.5 yards per completion.
At least the Tide got there, though. A big reason they were there to begin with was a fast and physical defensive line that included A'Shawn Robinson, Jarran Reed, D.J. Pettway, Jonathan Allen and a host of others who helped mask Alabama's primary problem as much as possible.
All of those players return this season, which should allow history to repeat itself.
"They're going to have the best defensive line in the nation," said Cubelic, "as well as one of the best linebackers in the nation in (Reggie) Ragland."
Offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin had a big role in it, as well.
In his first season in charge of the Crimson Tide's offense, Kiffin set the school record in total offense (484.5 yards per game) with quarterback Blake Sims, who played running back at one point in his Alabama career.
Is it a little bit different this season with nine new starters? Sure. Kiffin won't have wide receiver Amari Cooper to rely on, but there are still plenty of playmakers on the offense to choose from, including running backs Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake, wide receivers ArDarius Stewart, Cam Sims, Robert Foster and Chris Black, as well as tight end O.J. Howard.
Are you willing to doubt Kiffin after last year's success?
I'm not.
Kiffin has a medium-sized village of talented players to work with, and last year's success with Sims, when combined with success at other schools, should give Tide fans confidence that he will make it work with whoever steps forward in the five-man quarterback battle.
One player in that battle, senior Jake Coker, showed more comfort in the system last Friday at Alabama's first spring practice, according to Saban (via Michael Casagrande of AL.com).
"You know, today is the first day, he certainly seemed a lot more confident out there and comfortable," said Saban. "Obviously when he started last year it was a whole new offense to him, everyone was ahead of him and right now I feel like right now he's a lot more comfortable and confident with what we're doing."
Alabama's offense doesn't have to be a sequel to last year's smash hit in order for the team to stay competitive, though.
"If they decide to throttle back and go more towards a run-heavy offense, they've probably got the best left tackle in college football (Cam Robinson), have a pretty good center (Ryan Kelly) coming back and one of the best running backs in the league in Derrick Henry," said Cubelic.
"They're one of the few teams that can get around the lack of a big-time quarterback based on the style of football that they're capable of playing."
That's not to say that Auburn won't compete too.
There are roster holes to fill, sure. But head coach Gus Malzahn was the first coordinator in FBS history to produce a 5,000-yard passer, 1,000-yard rusher and three 1,000-yard receivers in the same season, when he was with Tulsa in 2007. Plus, he has produced 12 1,000-yard rushers in nine seasons as a college head or assistant coach.
His system works, regardless of pieces.
Those pieces this year—including pro-style passer Jeremy Johnson, superstar wide receiver D'haquille "Duke" Williams and junior college transfer running back Jovon Robinson—are still supremely talented and will put up video game statistics on the Plains.
"We've seen a little bit of Jeremy Johnson, but there still needs to be somebody to step up opposite of Williams," said Cubelic. "If they don't, teams will be able to roll coverage, bracket him and minimize what he's able to do."
The big question is on defense, where Will Muschamp was brought in to fix a unit that has been a sore spot ever since the end of the Tommy Tuberville era.
He's got players, but Auburn has gone through Paul Rhoads, Ted Roof and Ellis Johnson as its defensive coordinators since it last finished in the top half of the SEC in total defense (not coincidentally, with Muschamp). Is he the solution to the lingering problem?
As Bill Connelly of SB Nation notes, the stats suggest he could be.
He has a solid foundation to work with up front, with defensive end Carl Lawson returning from a torn ACL and joining Montravius Adams along the defensive line, Cassanova McKinzy and Kris Frost at linebacker and Jonathan Jones—one of the most underrated cornerbacks in the SEC—anchoring the back end.
But the climb is steeper for Auburn than for Alabama, as Saban has the program to a point where its "down years" are still 10-win seasons.
It looks like the Iron Bowl could decide the SEC West title for the second time in three seasons, and while both teams look like national title contenders, Alabama has a slight edge heading into spring practice.
"Alabama is the safest bet," says Cubelic, "but Auburn has the potential to be a better team."
The battle that ensues between now and then should add more spice to a rivalry that's already the college football equivalent of habanero sauce.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and college football video analyst for Bleacher Report as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on Sirius 93, XM 208.
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. All stats are courtesy of CFBStats.com unless otherwise noted, and all recruiting information is courtesy of 247Sports' composite rankings. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.
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