1 Key for Every 2015 NBA Title Contender to Go Home with the Trophy
If recent history is any indication, only eight teams have a real chance of going home with the 2015 NBA championship this June.
Over the past decade, every NBA champion has touted a top-10 defense and a top-10 net rating, while all but one had a top-10 offense, too. The lone holdout, the 2009-10 Los Angeles Lakers, had the 11th-ranked offense to go with their top-five defense.
The same can't be said about every NBA title runner-up since 2004-05, but those teams share a few similarities, too. They all finished among the top 10 in net rating during their respective seasons, and each team also had either a top-five offense or top-five defense. Additionally, none of those teams had an offense or defense that ranked among the bottom third in the league.
So, if your favorite team doesn't finish the regular season with a top-10 net rating along with a top-five offense or top-five defense (or top-10 marks in both), recent history won't be in your favor. Even for the teams that do merit the "title contender" label, however, winning the Larry O'Brien Trophy won't be as simple as "hope your star player goes full supernova."
Based on each team's strengths and weaknesses, identity and roster construction, the following keys will be critical if they hope to emerge victorious in June.
Honorable Mentions
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All four of these teams fall short of the recent historical threshold of NBA Finals competitors. However, with 10-plus regular-season games remaining for each, a late-season run could move them back into the title conversation.
Chicago Bulls: Getting Everyone Healthy
Surprise, surprise: The Chicago Bulls have been afflicted with a spate of detrimental injuries once more. Though forward Taj Gibson recently returned from a bone bruise in his left ankle, swingman Jimmy Butler and point guard Derrick Rose remain sidelined with a sprained left elbow and a torn meniscus, respectively.
Both are expected to return to the Bulls lineup before the playoffs—Butler is due back as early as this coming week, per K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune—but Chicago can't afford any setbacks in their recovery. Aaron Brooks, Tony Snell and Nikola Mirotic have done an admirable job in their absence, but the Bulls need Butler and Rose healthy to have a real shot of advancing to the NBA Finals.
Dallas Mavericks: Get Chandler Parsons Going
Here's a fun fact: The Dallas Mavericks are 19-6 when Chandler Parsons scores 18 or more points, 5-7 when he scores 10 or fewer and 5-5 when he doesn't play. It's become increasingly clear that the swingman's performance in the playoffs will play a large part in determining how far Dallas can advance.
Kirk Henderson of Mavs Moneyball dubbed Parsons the team's "second-most important player at this point, behind only Tyson Chandler." His colleague, Doyle Rader, believes the former Florida Gator "really allows the Mavericks to space the floor and move the ball."
Despite Tyson Chandler roaming the paint, the Dallas defense won't strike fear in the hearts of opponents. The Mavs' third-ranked offense could help spark a deep playoff run, especially if Parsons starts scorching the nets with three-point bombs.
Toronto Raptors: Develop Defensive Pride
If their fourth-ranked offense is any indication, the Toronto Raptors shouldn't have problems scoring in the playoffs. The other side of the court, however, is another story entirely, if you take into account their 22nd-ranked defense.
"We have to show some defensive pride," Raptors head coach Dwane Casey told reporters after his team's 108-92 loss to the Bulls on March 20. "We have to stop worrying that 'so-and-so got one shot [but instead] so-and-so got no stops.' We have to get the kind of personality where we don't worry about scoring. I'm concerned about who is stopping who."
The Raptors ranked ninth in defensive efficiency last season, so it's not as though this group is incapable of stifling opposing offenses. Given that no team in the past decade has advanced to the NBA Finals with a defense ranked 12th or worse, however, Toronto needs to shape up quickly on D or risk an early playoff exit.
Washington Wizards: Eschew the Long Two
While the Daryl Morey-led Houston Rockets have all but abandoned mid-range shots, firing up a league-low 8.8 such attempts per game, Randy Wittman's Washington Wizards have taken the opposite approach.
The Wizards rank fourth in the league in mid-range attempts (28.8), trailing just the Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves. They're also attempting just 16.7 three-point attempts per game, the NBA's fourth-lowest mark, despite shooting 35.9 percent from downtown (which ranks ninth).
As Bullets Forever's Jake Whitacre wrote, the issue with Washington's steady diet of long twos is quality, not quantity. The Wizards often miss "simple opportunities to turn long twos into threes," Whitacre wrote, which could prove costly when every possession takes upon additional importance in the playoffs.
Atlanta Hawks: Avoid Offensive Stagnation
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Based on their season-long body of work, the Atlanta Hawks have established themselves as the Eastern Conference's top NBA Finals threat.
The Hawks are the only East team with top-10 ranks on both offense and defense, which explains why they have the league's third-best net rating. On the year, the Hawks rank fifth in passes per game (323.2) and second in assists per game (25.4), which, given head coach Mike Budenholzer's San Antonio Spurs pedigree, should come as no surprise.
Since the All-Star break, however, Atlanta's offense hasn't been as sizzling as it was during the team's undefeated march through January. The Hawks dropped 100 or more points in all but four of their 17 games that month, but they failed to surpass that threshold in nine of their first 16 games after the break, including Sunday's 114-95 thrashing at the hands of the Spurs.
Kyle Korver's absence due to a broken nose certainly didn't help in that regard, and neither has Budenholzer's liberal resting of his players over the past few weeks. With Atlanta eight games up on the second-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers in the standings, there's little reason for Bud to play his starters heavy minutes down the stretch, which likely means more offensive struggles are in the Hawks' near future.
Everything about Atlanta fits the mold of a legitimate title contender based on recent history, especially given how well all of the team's starters have embraced their respective roles. As long as the Hawks don't fall into the trap of "hero ball" in the playoffs—and nothing to date suggests they will—they'll have a real shot of bringing home an NBA title this June.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Kevin Love Stops 'Fitting Out'
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During the preseason, Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love told ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin that his teammates wanted him to "fit out" and "just be myself." More than five months later, that remains a work-in-progress.
Following a 106-97 loss to the Atlanta Hawks on March 6, Love bristled about his role on the team when speaking with Chris Haynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group:
"I heard some people calling me that but I know I'm not a stretch-four. I'm a post player who can shoot. Right now I'm just doing what I'm called to do. For good, bad or indifferent, I'm playing my role and doing what's asked of me. Tonight, I stayed out on the perimeter.
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Love is attempting a career-high 40.3 percent of his shots from three-point range, while only 21.5 percent of his field-goal attempts have come within three feet of the basket. He would "like a better balance of touches around the basket," according to ESPN.com's Michael Wallace, but he's seemingly beginning to understand where his true value lies for Cleveland.
"It's like [his former head coach Kevin] McHale used to tell me: Just go where they ain't," he told Wallace. "Just go out there and try to space the floor as best I can."
If Love embraces his diminished role like Chris Bosh did with the LeBron James-led Miami Heat, it's unlikely another team could defeat the Cavs in a seven-game series. If he allows his frustrations to get the best of him, though, shutting down James and Kyrie Irving will become that much easier for opponents.
Golden State Warriors: A Lockdown Draymond Green
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The Golden State Warriors will enter the playoffs as this year's clear title favorites, as they have no real discernable weakness. They tout the league's top-ranked offense and defense, a feat that no other champion has matched over the past decade, and their net rating of plus-11.7 is more than twice as high as the next-closest team.
Given that eight of the past 10 champions had either a top-eight offense or defense, the Warriors appear to be in strong historical company. Four of those squads also owned the league's top net rating in their respective years, solidifying Golden State's title credentials.
While Steph Curry and Klay Thompson bomb away from deep and Andrew Bogut protects the rim on defense, Draymond Green's switchblade versatility will ultimately determine whether Golden State can make good on its title hopes.
Green has the team's second-best defensive rating (95.4), trailing only Bogut, and net rating (16.2), behind Curry. He's one of the Defensive Player of the Year front-runners, as his ability to guard a wide range of positions is critical to Golden State's defensive effectiveness.
It's no coincidence the Warriors have taken such a leap this season since sliding Green into the starting 4 spot and relegating David Lee to a minor role off the bench. The Michigan State product's response to the array of defensive challenges he'll face in the postseason will help determine how far Golden State can advance.
Houston Rockets: Dwight Howard Returns as 'Superman'
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Despite only having Dwight Howard in their lineup for 32 games this season, the Houston Rockets are tied for the league's third-best defense. That doesn't bode well for their Western Conference playoff foes, especially if Howard can return from his knee ailments at full power.
On the year, with Howard on the court, opponents average just 97.4 points per 100 possessions and 95.9 points per 48 minutes, both of which would rank toward the top of the league. With him off the court, however, those marks rise to 101.2 points per 100 possessions and 101.0 points per 48 minutes, far more in line with the NBA average.
Ever since edema in Howard's right knee sidelined him in late January, Houston especially hasn't fared as well with interior defense. Before he left the lineup, Rockets opponents averaged 29.4 field-goal attempts within five feet of the basket; since then, they're averaging 32.2, the league's third-highest mark in that span.
While Joey Dorsey hasn't been a bad scrap-heap reclamation project by any means, he's no three-time Defensive Player of the Year. Having said former DPOY manning the middle again—he could be back as early as this week, per ESPN.com's Calvin Watkins—would assuredly stiffen an already-tough Houston defense.
Assuming Howard doesn't experience any setbacks before the postseason kicks off, his return could help propel the Rockets to the promised land. He'll need to be at full strength to help Houston survive the Western Conference playoff gauntlet, though.
Los Angeles Clippers: Stifling Pick-and-Roll Defense
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The Los Angeles Clippers aren't a great defensive unit, despite DeAndre Jordan's best efforts on that end of the court. They cough up 100.5 points per game to opponents, the third-highest mark of any current playoff team and 12th-highest mark overall.
Their defensive-efficiency numbers paint a similar picture: They're tied with the Miami Heat for the 18th-best D, allowing opponents to score 103.5 points per 100 possessions. Their pick-and-roll defense is partially to blame for that, as they allow roll men to score 1.08 points per possession, the league's highest mark.
As SB Nation's Jesus Gomez notes, the way L.A. defends pick-and-rolls—hedging "in an attempt to control the ball-handler, which means the bigs venture far from the paint on high pick-and-rolls"—causes major issues. However, head coach Doc Rivers believes his team's lack of consistency is also partially to blame, as he told Dan Woike of the Orange County Register in February:
"We have not crossed that threshold yet, where we’re consistent and every time you see us play, you say 'Man. I know they talk and I know their offense is efficient, but they’re a heck of a defensive team.' When you look at us now, you say, 'When they play, they can play defense.' We have to cross that threshold to be an elite team.
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If the Clips can't figure out a way to shut down pick-and-rolls, they should expect to be fed with a steady diet of them in the playoffs. If Rivers is right, however, and his team's defensive issues largely come down to effort, the Clippers could be the West's biggest under-the-radar contender.
Memphis Grizzlies: Figure Out Jeff Green's Ideal Role
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At his best, Jeff Green represents the Memphis Grizzlies' missing ingredient in their pursuit of an NBA title, as Bleacher Report's Josh Martin wrote following the team's trade for him in January. Memphis hasn't yet figured out how to harness that version of Green consistently, however.
In the 33 games he's played with the Grizzlies, the team has a net rating of minus-2.3 with him on the court. That's the fifth-worst mark of any Memphis player, and of any Grizzly who has played at least 200 minutes.
Of all the Grizzlies' five-man lineups that have played at least 50 minutes this season, the Green-Mike Conley-Marc Gasol-Courtney Lee-Zach Randolph quintet has the second-worst net rating (minus-3.3). Replacing Green with Tony Allen in that five-man lineup results in a net rating of plus-9.2, the fifth-best mark of the 11 eligible combinations.
Green recently asked head coach Dave Joerger to move him out of the starting lineup, according to the Memphis Commercial Appeal's Ronald Tillery (via CBSSports.com's James Herbert), saying the move would allow him to "be more aggressive." Bleacher Report's Tom Firme has long been arguing for such a change.
If the bench role helps Green become more consistent, Joerger is right to experiment with it now, before the playoffs commence. The former Georgetown Hoya could well be the determining factor in whether Memphis will bring home the Larry O'Brien Trophy this June, which means the Grizzlies need him to be at his best.
Portland Trail Blazers: Increased Bench Production
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When Wesley Matthews tore his left Achilles tendon against the Dallas Mavericks on March 5, it dealt a major blow to the Portland Trail Blazers' title chances.
Though trade-deadline acquisition Arron Afflalo appeared to give the Blazers a reprieve from the major ramifications of Matthews' injury, it's become clear in recent weeks that Portland can't seamlessly replace the Marquette product. Sports Illustrated's Rob Mahoney had a feeling that might be the case:
"Portland draws so much of its power from continuity that the exchange of Matthews for Afflalo is more than that of an elite marksman for a slightly shakier shooter, that of a dogged defender for a less committed one. It's the replacement of a player intimately familiar with the precise ways in which the Blazers operate for one acquired two weeks ago.
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The real dagger, however, was not the drop-off from Matthews to Afflalo, but instead it's the drop-off from Afflalo leaving the reserve unit. On the year, the Blazers bench ranks 29th in points per game (26.0), per HoopsStats.com, ahead of only the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Landing Afflalo at the trade deadline was Portland's way of combating that lack of bench production, as the former UCLA swingman could feasibly step into a 15-points-per-game role as a sixth man. Instead, the Blazers are back to square one with their reserves following Matthews' injury, a problem which threatens to derail their title hopes if they can't find a quick fix.
San Antonio Spurs: The 'Old' Tony Parker
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A nagging hamstring injury sapped the effectiveness of San Antonio Spurs point guard Tony Parker for much of the season, but he's begun looking like his old, lethal self in recent weeks.
"He's been in that mode for the last two or three games and feeling pretty confident about his health," Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich told reporters following a 116-105 victory over the Chicago Bulls on March 8. "He was very explosive today and played a decent number of minutes, too. I think he's where we would like him to be."
After averaging just 12.5 points on 39.6 percent shooting and 5.0 assists per game in February, the Frenchman has erupted for 19.9 points on 58.5 percent shooting and 5.5 assists per game in March. In turn, the Spurs are rocketing up the Western Conference standings, having dropped just two of their past 12 games.
As Bleacher Report's Stephen Babb wrote, Parker (and his health) will be San Antonio's biggest X-factor heading into the postseason:
"No amount of sound San Antonio ball movement can replace Parker's production. He gives Popovich a weapon inside and outside of the paint, a versatile threat who can create for himself and others. When everything's going right, Parker can go head-to-head against any star floor general.
Kawhi Leonard may be this team's best all-around two-way player, but the offense still comes down to Parker.
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If the darting, probing, savvy floor general of years past is back for good, San Antonio will be a nightmare draw for whichever team has the misfortune of matching up against them in the playoffs.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics via NBA.com or Basketball-Reference.com and are current through games played on Sunday, March 22.
