Predicting New York Giants Starting Lineup After the 1st Wave of Free Agency
The New York Giants still have a long way to go before they field a team on opening day.
Still, slowly but surely, we’re starting to get a picture of how this roster is shaping up—yes, even with some glaring holes and uncertainties at some positions as a result of injuries and/or ongoing rehabs.
Where do things stand for Big Blue, as far as preparation is concerned?
Let’s break down where the Giants stand on each unit.
Quarterbacks
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Projected Depth Chart: Eli Manning, Ryan Nassib
Regardless if he receives an extension—and it would be surprising if that doesn’t happen—Eli Manning will still be leading the Giants offense this season.
His backup is still expected to be Ryan Nassib, the signal-caller the Giants traded up to get in the fourth round in 2013.
While there has been some early speculation that Nassib might be on the trading block given the weak quarterback draft class—speculation that general manager Jerry Reese ducked at last month’s combine when he spoke to reporters—as Reese likes to point out, Manning isn’t getting any younger.
While the 34-year-old, two-time Super Bowl MVP has been durable—he has yet to miss a start—there’s always a first time for everything.
In Nassib, the Giants have a homegrown option who right now appears better than anything else available in free agency or later in the draft.
While there is always a possibility that the Giants will look to move Nassib if the right offer comes along, the Giants will more than likely keep him for another year.
Running Backs/Fullbacks
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Projected Depth Chart: Rashad Jennings, Andre Williams, Shane Vereen, Orleans Darkwa, Henry Hynoski (FB)
The Giants will continue to use a rotation led by starter Rashad Jennings, who will be relieved by second-year man Andre Williams and newcomer Shane Vereen.
The "starter" label at this position is kind of a misnomer due to the Giants’ "by-committee” approach, which could see a different running back on the field for the offense’s first snap.
So instead, let’s try to define roles.
We know that Jennings and Williams are downhill runners, a one-two punch that, if healthy, can be used to wear down the defense.
Vereen, who can fill in for Jennings (who has yet to make it through a 16-game season) or Williams will most likely be the third-down back used in space as a receiving option.
The fourth running back spot will probably come down to Michael Cox, who is recovering from a broken leg, and Orleans Darkwa, who was signed off the Miami Dolphins practice squad last year and performed well in limited snaps.
Henry Hynoski, who re-upped for two more years, will serve as the fullback. Pound for pound, Hynoski was the best of the backfield blockers (fullback and tight ends), finishing with a team-best 5.3 run-blocking grade from Pro Football Focus.
Wide Receivers
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Projected Depth Chart: Odell Beckham Jr., Rueben Randle, Victor Cruz, Dwayne Harris, Corey Washington/Kevin Ogletree/Preston Parker
The X-factor in the receiving group is Victor Cruz, who has been diligently working to rehab a torn patellar ligament.
At a recent promotional event, Cruz told Danielle Elliott of Yahoo Sports’ Shutdown Corner that he remains optimistic about recapturing his pre-injury form.
"As it's starting to heal up, I'm starting to feel myself getting back to form and I'm starting to feel my strength coming back and my quickness, so I think I'll be back," he told Elliott.
While that is the hope, general manager Jerry Reese continues to proceed as though he might not have Cruz at 100 percent. He re-signed Kevin Ogletree and added Dwayne Harris in free agency. Reese also told reporters at the combine last month that he hasn’t ruled out drafting another receiver.
Assuming Cruz is ready to go, he could be the No. 3 receiver in his first year back from injury, handling most of the work from the slot. That would leave Odell Beckham Jr. and Rueben Randle as Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, to work on the outside.
Harris currently projects as the No. 4 receiver—he will primarily handle the return duties. The final two roster spots at this position (assuming the Giants keep six receivers, which is a good possibility) will come down to Corey Washington, who needs to be more consistent on special teams, Preston Parker and Ogletree.
Of those three, Parker might be the one in danger, as with Harris on board there is no longer a need for Parker to handle the return specialist duties.
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Tight Ends
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Projected Depth Chart: Larry Donnell, Adrien Robinson, Jerome Cunningham
Larry Donnell, last year’s starter, was retained on an exclusive-rights free-agent tender, so he is back in the fold.
In run blocking, Donnell finished with a team-worst minus-12.1 grade among the tight ends, according to Pro Football Focus.
His pass reception also dropped off after the first four weeks of the season when opposing defenses started to bump him as he came off the line of scrimmage. Per PFF, Donnell would only catch two more touchdowns in the final 12 games of the season and would record three dropped passes and three of his four fumbles over that time span.
Adrien Robinson, the fourth-round pick from 2012, will get another chance to build on what he started last season. In 77 snaps, the “JPP of tight ends” finished with a respectable 1.2 run-blocking grade and caught five of seven pass targets.
The Giants will probably add a third tight end. Daniel Fells, who finished with the best overall grade (6.3) among the Giants tight ends last season, is currently unsigned. However, Jordan Raanan of NJ Advance Media reports that the team did make an offer to the veteran tight end.
Jerome Cunningham, who was a late addition to the training camp roster last year, opened a few eyes in his limited snaps. After spending time on the Giants’ practice squad, Cunningham should get an opportunity to compete for the third tight end spot.
Offensive Line
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Projected Depth Chart: LT Will Beatty, LG TBD, C Weston Richburg, RG Geoff Schwartz, RT Justin Pugh
Other than adding some new pieces for depth such as Marshall Newhouse, a swing tackle, and youngster Brett Jones, a center/guard prospect from the CFL, and re-signing John Jerry, last year’s starting right guard, the Giants haven’t really addressed the fifth opening on their offensive line—at least not yet.
If the season were to start tomorrow, Jerry would likely move back to right guard with Geoff Schwartz at left guard. However, if the Giants want to optimize that interior, they might be better off moving Schwartz to the right side.
Historically, Schwartz has fared better playing right guard/right tackle. In 2013, he earned his second-highest overall grade (18.6) from Pro Football Focus. In 2010, he posted his highest-overall career grade (19.3), suggesting that he’s more comfortable playing on the right side than on the left, where the Giants initially had planned to play him last year.
The missing piece of the puzzle is at left guard. Unless the Giants believe that Iowa offensive tackle Brandon Scherff can come in and start at right tackle, it’s unlikely they will take him in the first round and move Pugh inside to left guard.
Ideally, this should be the scenario. It’s probably not the best idea to put a rookie guard next to a first-year center (Richburg).
The ideal approach for the Giants would be to move Pugh to left guard and, if they can grab Scherff at No. 9, put him at right tackle.
Defensive Line
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Projected Depth Chart: DE Jason Pierre-Paul, DT Johnathan Hankins, DT (TBD), DE (TBD)
Unlike the offensive line, where the Giants have begun refreshing some of the depth, nothing has really been done yet on the defensive line, which is why only half of the starting lineup can probably be written in stone.
Barring injury, Jason Pierre-Paul will be on the field this year. It wouldn’t be surprising if he decided to play out the one-year franchise tag, which guarantees him $14.813 million for one season’s worth of work.
Johnathan Hankins had a breakout season last year at defensive tackle, so he will be brought back to continue his growth there. However, Cullen Jenkins, who lined up next to Hankins last season, isn't necessarily assured a spot in the starting lineup again despite agreeing to a pay cut.
There is also second-year man Jay Bromley, who last year played sparingly and who could line up at that other defensive tackle spot.
The rest of the line is up in the air. The Giants apparently are interested in adding a big-bodied defensive tackle alongside of Hankins, which is why they have reached out to Jets free agent Kenrick Ellis, according to Paul Schwartz of the New York Post.
Remember, during defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s first tenure with the Giants, he had a pair of big bodies in the defensive line interior: Fred Robbins and Barry Cofield. Add the fact that the Giants run defense finished 30th in the NFL last year, and that could drive their desire to upgrade that defensive front.
The identity of the other defensive end still needs to be sorted out. The Giants flirted with Eagles defensive end Brandon Graham at the start of free agency, according to Nick Powell of NJ Advance Media, but were unsuccessful in signing him.
While they could still draft a prospect at No. 9, the job, at least for now, will more than likely go to either Robert Ayers or Damontre Moore, though the health status of each is still a bit unclear.
Ayers, remember, saw his season end early due to a pectoral injury. As of last month, Jordan Raanan of NJ Advance Media had reported that Ayers was still rehabbing and had not yet commenced lifting weights.
Moore, meanwhile, was spotted with his arm in a sling by Charean Williams of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram during Texas A&M’s pro day earlier this month.
Kerry Wynn, who showed flashes of promise toward the end of last season, will also be in the mix at defensive end.
Linebackers
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Projected Depth Chart: SLB Devon Kennard, MLB Jon Beason, WLB J.T. Thomas
The key to this unit is Jon Beason, the talented veteran middle linebacker who has struggled the last four seasons with assorted injuries, missing 12 games last season due to a toe injury.
When he is on the field, Beason is still very much a serviceable linebacker, particularly against the run. According to a study done last year, 77 percent of Beason’s run-game tackles in 2013 were made within five yards or less to the line of scrimmage.
If Beason, who recently agreed to reduce his 2015 base salary from $3.6 million to $1.9 million per Spotrac, can’t give the Giants 16 games, Jameel McClain, who filled in for him in the middle last year, is likely the next man up at that position.
Moving to the weak-side linebacker, newcomer J.T. Thomas is projected as the new starter, replacing Jacquian Williams, an unrestricted free agent whom the team didn’t bother to re-sign. Thomas has 112 tackles, one safety, five passes defensed, four forced fumbles and two interceptions in his career.
Thomas, who last year moved to middle linebacker when injuries started hitting the Jaguars defense, fared better in coverage as an outside linebacker. Per Pro Football Focus, he allowed 15 of 19 pass targets to be completed for 108 yards (7.2 avg.) and no touchdowns playing outside linebacker.
Kennard, who got his opportunity last year to play on both the weak and strong sides, was a pleasant surprise, particularly as a pass-rusher, where he put some of his techniques learned as a 3-4 defensive end/outside linebacker at USC to good use. Kennard finished with 4.5 sacks, showing good quickness and relentlessness in rushing the passer.
Cornerbacks
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Projected Depth Chart: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Prince Amukamara, Trumaine McBride/Chykie Brown, Chandler Fenner/Mike Harris/Jayron Hosley/Bennett Jackson
Last year, the cornerback position was the deepest on the team. Of course, that meant it was also one of the units that was hit hard by injury.
Prince Amukamara, who really started to come into his own (perhaps because he had Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie on the other side) suffered a biceps injury. Trumaine McBride, the smallish cornerback who plays like a man twice his height, broke his hand.
Even Rodgers-Cromartie struggled through lower-body injuries, all of which forced the Giants to pick guys up off the street (Chykie Brown) and promote from the practice squad (Chandler Fenner).
In 2015, Rodgers-Cromartie and Amukamara are set as the starters. The slot cornerback spot will likely be decided between McBride, who took over for Walter Thurmond last year after Thurmond went down with a season-ending injury in Week 2, and Brown.
After that, there is a tossup between Harris, Jackson and Fenner. Last year, Harris and Fenner both flashed.
Jackson, however, spent most of the year on injured reserve after undergoing microfracture surgery, as Jordan Raanan of NJ Advance Media noted in January. In fact, it might be worth watching to see if the coaches try getting Jackson some snaps at safety given his knee injury.
The Giants’ 2012 third-round draft pick, Jayron Hosley, who was at minimum supposed to develop into the team’s nickelback, has been a disappointment and could very well have a tough time sticking on the roster unless he finally puts together a solid training camp.
Don't be surprised if the Giants add another cornerback to the mix in the draft.
Safeties
9 of 10
Projected Depth Chart: SS Nat Berhe, FS Cooper Taylor
The pickings are currently slim for the Giants after they lost Antrel Rolle to the Bears.
The Giants also have yet to re-sign Stevie Brown, who suffered a late-season foot injury, and/or Quintin Demps, though Demps' return seems less likely.
That leaves the Giants with a pair of inexperienced but promising safeties: Nat Berhe and Cooper Taylor.
Berhe and Taylor are both draft picks, with Taylor the senior member of the two. However, Taylor has spent all or part of his first years on injured reserve while Berhe, as a rookie, was limited to just 32 snaps on defense last year, per Pro Football Focus.
It’s no secret that the Giants will add at least one more player at this position.
Also worth keeping an eye on is whether defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo decides to use linebacker Jonathan Casillas as a safety in certain packages, depending on the offense's personnel.
Special Teams
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Projected Depth Chart: P Steve Weatherford, K Josh Brown, LS Zak DeOssie, KR/PR Dwayne Harris
The only newcomer to this mix is Dwayne Harris, a free-agent acquisition who has 77 kickoff returns for 2,040 yards (26.5 avg.) and 87 punt returns for 965 yards (11.1 avg.) with two touchdown returns.
Harris’ career averages, if he is able to maintain them, already represent a significant upgrade over what the Giants averaged as a team in punt returns (7.7 yards) and kickoff returns (23.3) last season.
According to NFL Game Statistics and Information Systems, the Giants’ 2014 punt and kickoff return averages were both below the NFL averages of 8.9 (punts) and 23.8 (kickoffs), respectively.
Harris’ career stats alone would have put the Giants above that curb by helping them win the starting field-position battle.
Unless otherwise noted, advanced stats are from Pro Football Focus. Patricia Traina covers the Giants for Inside Football, the Journal Inquirer and Sports Xchange. All quotes and information obtained firsthand unless otherwise sourced.
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