Projecting the 20 Most Dangerous Offenses for 2015 College Football Season
For the most part, offense carries over.
Even with graduation demanding frequent roster turnover, the most dangerous offenses from one year typically remain dangerous the next year, provided they don't lose their coach, change schemes or suffer some sort of recruiting drop-off.
The following list accounts for all four factors. To project next year's top 20 offenses, we looked at how each team performed last season, how many players they return, how they've recruited to replace lost starters and whether they kept constant their schemes.
The 20 teams included are the 20 in which we feel most confident, but any of the 15 honorable mentions, along with countless off-the-radar dark horses, could supplant them next season.
Therein lies one of the great things about college football: Even when you think things carry over, there's always an exception to the rule.
Who saw TCU's offense coming in 2014?
Honorable Mentions
1 of 21
Here are 15 teams that just missed the cut:
- Cincinnati
- Georgia Tech
- LSU
- Miami (FL)
- Mississippi State
- North Carolina
- North Carolina State
- Oklahoma
- Ole Miss
- Pittsburgh
- South Carolina
- Washington State
- Western Kentucky
- Western Michigan
- Wisconsin
Alabama
2 of 21
Key Figures
Alabama loses seven offensive starters from one of the best offenses in program history. But this is Alabama we're talking about: It still returns running back Derrick Henry and left tackle Cam Robinson, both of whom are All-American candidates, along with Broyles Award finalist Lane Kiffin at offensive coordinator.
Florida State transfer Jake Coker, now a redshirt senior, will compete with a deep cast of quarterbacks to replace Blake Sims, just as a deep cast of wide receiver will compete to replace Amari Cooper. Also: Don't sleep on the return of Kenyan Drake, whom B/R's Barrett Sallee called "the key to Alabama's 2015 offensive success."
X-Factor
Coker. Henry will be Henry, Drake will be Drake and at least one or two of Bama's blue-chip wide receivers will emerge. All Kiffin needs is a game manager at quarterback, and Coker, by virtue of his age and experience, is the safest bet. However, Coker has always been more of a boom-or-bust prospect than a safe, reliable game manager. Can he step in and lead this offense? Or must Nick Saban turn away from his preference and start a younger, less-experienced QB?
Arizona
3 of 21
Key Figures
Arizona returns seven starters from an offense that averaged 463 yards per game. Running back Nick Wilson is a Heisman candidate, and quarterback Anu Solomon and receivers Cayleb Jones, Samajie Grant, Trey Griffey and Nate Phillips will keep the passing game at a high level. Oh, and the Wildcats still have Rich Rodriguez, an undisputed top-five offensive head coach.
X-Factor
Solomon. He led Arizona to a Pac-12 South title as a redshirt freshman, but his production waned down the stretch. In fact, his passer rating dropped in each successive month of the season, culminating with a pair of ugly performances against Oregon and Boise State. Was the leg injury he reportedly dealt with the reason for his decline? Or did defenses simply catch up with him?
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Arkansas
4 of 21
Key Figures
Arkansas returns nine starters from an offense that—especially at the end of last season—no team wants to play. Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams return as the best one-two backfield in the country, Hunter Henry is an All-America-caliber tight end and quarterback Brandon Allen returns from an above-average junior year. Rising juniors Dan Skipper and Denver Kirkland are All-SEC-type linemen at left tackle and right guard, respectively.
X-Factor(s)
The wide receivers. That's the only thing this offense is missing. The running game will do its job, and Allen has made huge strides the past two seasons, but the Razorbacks need more consistent play or, ideally, for a superstar to emerge on the outside. Keon Hatcher can be trusted but does not scream "No. 1 receiver." The wild card is Jojo Robinson, a redshirt freshman with considerable speed and upside.
Auburn
5 of 21
Key Figures
Auburn loses seven offensive starters, but as long as Gus Malzahn is on the sideline, there's never cause for panic. Jeremy Johnson was the most overqualified backup quarterback in the country last season and inherits the reins of a still-stacked offense, highlighted by Biletnikoff candidate D'haquille Williams at wide receiver and former 5-star recruits Roc Thomas and Jovon Robinson at running back.
X-Factor
The offensive line. Position coach J.B. Grimes has talent to work with, but this is still a minor question mark. Is Braden Smith for real on the inside? Can Shon Coleman make a leap at tackle? Who replaces Reese Dismukes at center? Winning up front is the core tenet of Malzahn's offense. If this group performs well, so will Auburn.
Baylor
6 of 21
Key Figures
Baylor returns a deep cast of skill talent, highlighted by running back Shock Linwood and wide receivers Corey Coleman and KD Cannon. More than that, it returns four starters from one of the best offensive lines in the country, none more important than left tackle Spencer Drango, who easily could have left and become a high-round NFL draft pick. Two-year backup quarterback Seth Russell is the favorite to replace Bryce Petty, but he'll be pushed by sophomore Chris Johnson and blue-chip freshman Jarrett Stidham.
X-Factor
Russell. How good is he, really? The numbers suggest he's a superstar, but they've come against the likes of SMU and Northwestern State. It's naive to think Robert Griffin III, Nick Florence and Petty were mere products of Art Briles' system, and that any quarterback can succeed in Waco. Those are humongous cleats to fill behind center.
California
7 of 21
Key Figures
Cal returns eight starters from an offense that averaged 495 yards per game. Quarterback Jared Goff has earned praise from NFL scouts and has the tools to make every throw in the book, which makes him a dangerous weapon in head coach Sonny Dykes' Air Raid offense alongside running backs Daniel Lasco and Khalfani Muhammad and, more importantly, a loaded group of wide receivers led by Kenny Lawler, Stephen Anderson and Bryce Treggs.
X-Factor
Muhammad. For years, we've read about his pure speed, waiting for him to break out. In high school, he won back-to-back California state titles in the 100-meter and 200-meter dash, and so he came to Berkley with huge expectations. Last year, however, his touches, yards and yards per attempt all dropped significantly, and Lasco took the reins as the sole lead back. Cal needs Muhammed to reach his potential and give this pass-first offense a Lache Seastrunk-type home run threat in the backfield.
Clemson
8 of 21
Key Figures
It all starts with quarterback Deshaun Watson, who as a true freshman showed flashes of stardom but couldn't stay on the field. If he's healthy, he'll lead an offense that returns seven starters, chief among them running back Wayne Gallman and wide receivers Mike Williams and Artavis Scott. With 5-star recruit Deon Cain set to join them this summer, Watson has his pick of talented targets. The offensive line requires work but has potential.
X-Factor
Watson. His health is Clemson's only offensive question. Since arriving last spring, he's suffered a broken collarbone, a broken hand and a torn ACL, the last of which is presently keeping him sidelined. Was that nothing but a string of bad luck? Or is Watson made of glass? Because this offense doesn't function the same without him.
Florida State
9 of 21
Key Figures
Florida State loses seven offensive starters but leaned so heavily on freshmen for depth that it can feel comfortable at most positions. Running back Dalvin Cook, left tackle Rod Johnson and wide receivers Travis Rudolph and Ermon Lane all played well in 2014 and should come into their own as sophomores. The biggest question, obviously, concerns replacing Jameis Winston at quarterback. Former backup Sean Maguire and redshirt freshman JJ Cosentino will battle for the job this spring.
X-Factor
Cosentino. Maguire has the inside track to start, and Deondre Francois has the highest long-term ceiling, but Cosentino has the best chance to take this offense—the 2015-16 offense—to heights on par with those of the past two seasons. He's a big (6'4", 237 lbs), strong, athletic prospect with a year of learning the system under his belt. At his best, Maguire can manage Florida State to an ACC title, whereas Cosentino, at his best, can lift the Noles to something more.
Georgia
10 of 21
Key Figures
Georgia returns Nick Chubb, one of the three best running backs in the country, and four starting offensive linemen. It also returns tight end Jeb Blazevich and wide receivers Malcolm Mitchell and Justin Scott-Wesley, the latter two providing big upside but also big injury risk. Basically, it's set outside of the quarterback position, where Faton Bauta, Jacob Park and Brice Ramsey will compete to replace Hutson Mason. Ramsey backed up Mason in 2014, but Park, a redshirt freshman, is the name most Dawgs fans want to see.
X-Factor
Brian Schottenheimer. Georgia hired the longtime NFL offensive coordinator after Mike Bobo became the head coach at Colorado State. Schottenheimer made a pair of AFC title games with Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets, so he's familiar with unstable quarterback situations, but his banal play-calling led to struggles with the St. Louis Rams. Will he loosen up the strings and get creative with the Bulldogs? And, more importantly, does he need to? Handing the ball to Chubb, Sony Michel and Keith Marshall 50 times per game might be Georgia's optimal strategy.
Notre Dame
11 of 21
Key Figures
Whether Everett Golson or Malik Zaire start at quarterback, Notre Dame's offense is loaded. Four starters return from a strong offensive line, highlighted by future first-round draft pick Ronnie Stanley, who will protect the starting quarterback and pave holes for running backs Tarean Folston and Greg Bryant. Wide receiver Will Fuller returns after a 1,000-yard season and is flanked by three teammates, Chris Brown, Corey Robinson and C.J. Prosise, who finished with between 500 and 550 receiving yards behind him.
X-Factor
Golson. How could it be anyone else? The strong-armed senior was a Heisman candidate during the first half of last season and a punch line during the second half. Unsurprisingly, Notre Dame was a playoff contender during the first half and a punch line during the second half. Once again, he can either make or break the Irish.
Michigan State
12 of 21
Key Figures
Michigan State loses five starters from the best offense in program history, but one of the six it returns, quarterback Connor Cook, makes all the difference. Cook forewent the NFL draft to settle what he called "unfinished business," per Noah Trister of The Associated Press, and he convinced All-America left tackle Jack Conklin to follow suit. Conklin joins center Jack Allen, guard Brian Allen and tight end Josiah Price on an offense that will dominate the line of scrimmage but has questions in the backfield and on the perimeter.
X-Factor
Aaron Burbridge. The former blue-chip recruit has shown flashes at wide receiver, but now, with Tony Lippett and Keith Mumphery (and potentially Macgarrett Kings Jr.) out of the picture, he must become a star. No one is better suited to replace Lippett than Burbridge, who must solve his consistency issues—and fast. Otherwise, this passing offense might regress to where it was in 2012.
Ohio State
13 of 21
Key Figures
Where do we even start? J.T. Barrett, Cardale Jones and Braxton Miller have each at times played like Heisman candidates, and whoever wins the quarterback battle between them will share a backfield with College Football Playoff MVP Ezekiel Elliott. On top of that, the Buckeyes return burgeoning wide receiver Michael Thomas and four starters on the offensive line, highlighted by second-team All-Big Ten tackle Taylor Decker and first-team guard Pat Elflein.
The biggest concern for this offense regards coaching more than personnel. Former offensive coordinator Tom Herman became the head coach at Houston, and Ohio State replaced him with Ed Warinner. But with head coach Urban Meyer on the sideline, that hardly seems like cause for concern.
X-Factor
Johnnie Dixon. He doesn't have the size (5'11", 198 lbs) of Devin Smith (6'1", 199 lbs), but Dixon has the speed to replace Smith as OSU's deep threat. He took a redshirt after hurting his knee last September but should return at full strength by fall camp. Replacing Smith is one of the only "questions" this offense faces.
Oklahoma State
14 of 21
Key Figures
Oklahoma State returns eight starters from an offense that struggled most of the season but improved down the stretch. Mason Rudolph stabilized the quarterback position and reportedly came to spring camp at 6'4", 240 pounds—roughly the same proportions as Ben Roethlisberger (6'5", 241 lbs). He returns alongside his top three wide receivers, chief among them Brandon Sheperd, who caught 12 passes for 254 yards and three touchdowns in the final two games of last season. Head coach Mike Gundy has a brilliant mind for offense and should get the 'Pokes back on track.
X-Factor
Chris Carson. The No. 4 JUCO running back in the country joins an empty backfield with a fast track to playing time. He's a bruiser with the size (6'1", 200 lbs) to replicate some of what Desmond Roland provided the past two seasons. Roland, however, is not the former Cowboy Carson most emulates. That would be Barry Sanders.
Oregon
15 of 21
Key Figures
Oregon returns seven starters from an offense that led the team to the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. Its strength lies at the skill positions, where running backs Royce Freeman and Thomas Tyner return alongside "taser" Byron Marshall, deep threats Darren Carrington and Devon Allen and projected top receiver Bralon Addison, who missed all of last season with a knee injury.
The only question? Who replaces Marcus Mariota, the 2014 Heisman Trophy winner, at quarterback. Eastern Washington transfer Vernon Adams is the favorite, but he can't enroll until the summer, so former backup Jeff Lockie and redshirt freshman Morgan Mahalak have a chance to make noise this spring.
X-Factor
Adams. We've seen him produce against Pac-12 competition, but we've never seen him operate as a favorite. It's one thing to catch Oregon State or Washington off-guard as an FCS team, it's another to play at Stanford as the defending conference champion. Is Adams ready for the pressure? Will he wilt once Pac-12 teams start piling tape on him? How good is he—really? Only time will tell.
TCU
16 of 21
Key Figures
TCU returns nine starters from an offense that averaged 46.5 points per game. Quarterback Trevone Boykin is a top-five Heisman candidate, according to the most recent numbers at Odds Shark, which makes sense considering his two best wide receivers, Josh Doctson and Kolby Listenbee, both return. Running back Aaron Green replaces B.J. Catalon, but if the second half of last year was any indication, Green might be the better player anyway.
X-Factor
Aviante Collins. He's the only new starter on the offensive line, replacing All-Big 12 honorable mention Tayo Fabuluje at left tackle. Fortunately, Collins is a senior with 23 career starts, including 13 as a true freshman in 2012. Can he channel the talent that got him on the field as an underclassman? Or will he become the crack in TCU's armor?
Tennessee
17 of 21
Key Figures
Tennessee returns 10 offensive starters from an offense that turned the corner down the stretch. Its improvement coincided with the emergence of Joshua Dobbs, a dual-threat quarterback with the tools to become a Heisman candidate. Former Alabama running back Alvin Kamara joins Jalen Hurd in a loaded backfield, and a receiving corps led by Pig Howard, Marquez North, Von Pearson and Josh Malone goes as deep as any unit in the country.
X-Factor(s)
The offensive line. The Vols fared well in run blocking last season but finished No. 118 in adjusted sack rate, per Football Outsiders. It's imperative they keep Dobbs upright and the offense on schedule. Last year's line was young, so it's reasonable to expect improvement, but players need to take the next step. JUCO transfer Dontavius Blair, who last year took a redshirt after arriving with high expectations, will be counted on to emerge at left tackle.
Texas A&M
18 of 21
Key Figures
Texas A&M returns eight starters from an offense that, while worse than the Johnny Manziel units, was still pretty dangerous. Kyle Allen turned the corner late in the season and appears like a franchise quarterback, and fellow sophomore Speedy Noil is one of the scariest wide receivers in the country. (Josh Reynolds and Ricky Seals-Jones aren't half-bad, either.) Head coach Kevin Sumlin has a sophisticated offensive mind and has recruited to College Station at a top-15 level. No matter whom A&M loses, he will keep the ship afloat.
X-Factor(s)
Koda Martin and Avery Gennesy. For the first time since Sumlin's arrival, it's unclear who will start at tackle. Both players took a redshirt last season, with Martin earning scout team offensive MVP honors and high praise from Sumlin, who called him "the next great [Texas A&M] offensive lineman," per Brent Zwerneman of the Houston Chronicle. But can the Aggies rely on a 3-star redshirt freshman after trotting out Luke Joeckel, Jake Matthews and Cedric Ogbuehi the past three seasons? Martin and Gennesy will compete for one spot.
Texas Tech
19 of 21
Key Figures
Texas Tech returns nine starters from an offense that, while at times inefficient, still averaged more than 500 yards per game. Davis Webb and Patrick Mahomes can both handle quarterback duties; DeAndre Washington and Justin Stockton can both handle running back duties; Le'Raven Clark is an All-America candidate at left tackle; 5'6" Jakeem Grant is nightmare at wide receiver; and head coach Kliff Kingsbury calls a heck of a game from the sideline.
X-Factor(s)
Washington and Stockton. Are they a good backfield or a great backfield? And how does Texas Tech manage their workloads? Stockton averaged 8.25 yards on 48 carries and should, theoretically, be in line for a more advanced role. But Washington finished with a top-10 opportunity rate in the country, according to Bill Connelly of Football Study Hall. There's a chance these two emerge as a thunder (Washington) and lightning (Stockton) duo to be reckoned with. If they do, this offense becomes special.
UCLA
20 of 21
Key Figures
UCLA returns 10 starters from an offense that averaged 468 yards per game. The one starter it loses, quarterback Brett Hundley, was one of the best players in program history, but 5-star recruit Josh Rosen enrolled early and has limitless potential. Running back Paul Perkins is a Heisman candidate, and beside him UCLA returns a stacked deck of pass-catchers including Jordan Payton, Thomas Duarte, Devin Fuller, Eldridge Massington and Devin Lucien.
X-Factor
Rosen. Everything else is in place. The offensive line will be one year older and better, and the skill players can compete with those of any team in America. Can Rosen perform along the lines of, say, Brad Kaaya in 2014? Christian Hackenberg in 2013? His 247Sports composite grade is the highest for a quarterback since Matt Barkley in 2009, can he perform along those lines? As long as he doesn't choke, this offense will be fine. But freshmen choke more often than other players.
USC
21 of 21
Key Figures
USC returns seven starters, including all five offensive linemen, from one of the best offenses in the country. Cody Kessler emerged as a Heisman candidate with a 70 percent completion rate, 39 touchdowns and five interceptions as a junior, and although he loses Nelson Agholor, the Trojans return JuJu Smith and Darreus Rogers on the outside. Justin Davis, Tre Madden and blue-chip freshman Ronald Jones II will compete to replace Buck Allen at running back.
X-Factor
Adoree' Jackson. Yes, his future lies on defense, and he's arguably the best cornerback in the Pac-12. But George Farmer declared for the NFL draft, leaving the Trojans with significantly more depth at cornerback, where they're as stacked as any team in the country, than wide receiver. How often, if at all, does Jackson play offense? If it's often, he takes USC from dangerous to very dangerous.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
