Cleveland Cavaliers' Championship Window May Not Stay Open as Long as We Think
When LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love joined forces with the Cleveland Cavaliers, it appeared their championship window would be wide-open for years to come.
After all, Irving won't turn 23 until March 23. He's already a three-time All-Star, former Rookie of the Year and is the only player in the league to score 50 points or more twice this season.
Kevin Love, 26, should just be entering the prime of his career. He's averaged 18.8 points and 11.9 rebounds in six-plus seasons and is also a three-time All-Star.
Even though James is 30, he's looked rejuvenated after taking almost two weeks off in early January. He should still have three to four high-level years left, as well as some really good ones beyond that. James could also start slowing down in the offseason, and is doubtful to participate in the 2016 Olympic games.
Overall, this is one of the younger "Big Threes" that we've seen, and it has the ability to capture a championship at some point, if not this year. In fact, no one would blame the Cavaliers for not winning it all in their first season together. The 2010-11 Miami Heat famously had to undergo a failed playoff run before coming away victorious in the following two NBA Finals.
Given their star trio's average age, one would think these Cavs have time. If they don't get it this year, they'll surely have the following one and the season after, right?
Unfortunately, a great deal of roster changes could be forthcoming. Cleveland will have no cap space to add free agents this summer, and it must rely on signing its own players and hoping for internal improvements instead. Even with a rising salary cap in 2016, James and Love will absorb much of that space when signing their own new deals.
With just a few players under contract for next season and many potentially hitting restricted or unrestricted free agency, can general manager David Griffin even keep his roster intact? Due to salary-cap restrictions, is this already the best group of talent Cleveland can assemble?
Here's why the Cavaliers should be in a hurry to win it all now and why that window may not be as open as we all think.
Roster Outlook
While the Big Three will continue to be the backbone of the franchise, Cleveland has risen to the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference because of its fantastic role players and depth.
But right now, it's tough to predict just how many of those guys will stick around.
Out of 15 players, only three Cavs have guaranteed contracts in place for next season, via Basketball-Reference.com.
Cavaliers with Contracts for 2015-16 (and beyond)
- Kyrie Irving: Five years, $90 million
- Anderson Varejao: Three years, $30 million
- Joe Harris: Two years, $1.8 million
Irving will likely overtake James as the Cavs' best player sometime over the course of his contract. He's averaging 25.2 points on 51.5 percent shooting from the field and 47.8 percent from three in March. Cleveland was wise to wrap him up when it did.
Varejao's return next season will certainly be a boost to the bench, but it also brings its own issues. Where will his minutes come from? The Cavaliers frontcourt of Love, Timofey Mozgov and Tristan Thompson all need, and deserve, significant playing time. Cleveland will look foolish if it doesn't get a good run out of Varejao, even if it cuts into more productive players' minutes.
Cavaliers with Player Options for 2015-16
- LeBron James: $21.6 million
- Kevin Love: $16.7 million
- J.R. Smith: $6.4 million
- Mike Miller: $2.8 million
James may indeed opt out of his current contract, knowing he could collect an additional $1.5 million by signing a new one-year deal. He still has his sights set on the summer of 2016, when max contracts are expected to increase substantially. Make no mistake, however; he isn't going anywhere.
Love has already declared that he will not opt out of his remaining year, instead choosing to become an unrestricted free agent in 2016 like James. Unlike his MVP teammate, we can't be certain Love will be in Cleveland for the long haul. He's said all the right things, sacrificed his personal stats and even sat out multiple fourth quarters for defensive purposes.
"I've said all along that I plan on being a Cavalier long-term," Love told Chris Haynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group on Jan. 13. "As we continue to evolve, my role will continue to evolve. It's still a process where I'm figuring it out."
Notice that last line from Love.
Now read this one:
"It's still a work in progress, but I think I've figured it out a little better," he told ESPN.com's Michael Wallace on March 14.
That's a whole lot of "process" and "progress" continually going on, two months apart. While the Cavaliers are winning (23-5 between quotes), Love's stats have actually dropped off. Up until Jan. 13, Love was averaging 17.7 points and 10.4 rebounds on 43.6 percent from the field. Since then, he's contributed 15.5 points and 9.7 rebounds on 42.0 percent shooting.
Will Love be back with the Cavaliers next season? Almost certainly. Will he sign a max extension in Cleveland in 2016? Most likely. Probably.
Unlike James, however, nothing is certain with Love at this point.
Smith, on the other hand, has fit in beautifully with the Cavaliers. If he's smart, he'll pick up his option and stay in a good situation or else try to negotiate a long-term deal in Cleveland. We've seen what happens with Smith when he plays in a city with a vibrant nightlife or clashes with a head coach.
Given that he's averaging 12.4 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.6 steals on 37 percent shooting from deep, there's a chance Smith could try and parlay his recent strong play into the biggest contract he can get, no matter where it's signed at.
Losing Smith would hurt more than most realize, as the Cavs are 6.1 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor.
Cavaliers Facing Free Agency in 2015-16
- Tristan Thompson, Restricted
- Iman Shumpert, Restricted
- Matthew Dellavedova, Unrestricted
- Shawn Marion, Unrestricted
- James Jones, Unrestricted
- Kendrick Perkins, Unrestricted
This is where the Cavs could really take a step back if they're not careful.
The biggest fish in the free-agency pond is Thompson, whose had a huge impact on both ends this season. He's already reportedly turned down $50 million over four years, and he could command as much as $13 million to $14 million a year.
Cleveland will likely pay up, but it may impact how much it can offer other free agents.
Shumpert has been the Cavs' best perimeter defender since coming over from the New York Knicks, but he won't want to just be paid as a one-way player. After likely taking care of Thompson first, how much will the Cavaliers really want to offer another restricted free agent?
Shumpert should command at least $10 million a year, a figure that will be tough to swallow with James, Love, Irving, Varejao and now Thompson already making double figures.
Marion has announced he'll be retiring following the season, and Jones, 34, may be right behind him.
Perkins will almost assuredly not return, as a healthy Varejao eliminates his minutes.
Then there's the tricky case of Dellavedova, a great hustle player who teams would love to have at his current salary ($816,482). What happens if his camp asks for $3 million or more annually? This is yet again another tough financial decision the Cavaliers will have to make.
Conclusion
When eyeing the roster, it's only safe to say that James, Irving, Mozgov ($4.9 million team option), Varejao and Harris will be back. Other players like Love, Thompson, and Miller should be near-locks as well barring any late-season changes. We know that Marion and Perkins will depart. When it comes to Shumpert, Smith, Dellavedova and Jones, however, the Cavaliers' plans are a mystery.
The Cavaliers would love to return the entire roster, but it may not be financially possible. According to Bleacher Report's Howard Beck, the 2015-16 salary cap should only rise to around $67 million. James, Love, Irving and Varejao nearly equal that total by themselves.
Cleveland could face some serious luxury-tax concerns should owner Dan Gilbert open up his wallet for Thompson, Shumpert and Dellavedova. Mozgov will be due a big extension the following summer as well.
Somewhere along the line, the Cavs will lose bodies with so many mouths on the payroll to feed. Gilbert has deep pockets, but keeping everyone on the current roster happy may even test his limits.
Let's face it: This could already be the best collection of talent the Cavaliers will have in their Big Three era.
Cleveland can't afford to just be content with playoff experience this season. It has to look ahead and realize what a rare opportunity it has.
In other words, the title window may not stay open as long as we thought.
Greg Swartz has covered the Cleveland Cavaliers for Bleacher Report since 2010.
All stats provided by Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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