Can Any Eastern Conference Team Contend with Hawks or Cavaliers?
By now, most people have probably penciled in the Atlanta Hawks and the Cleveland Cavaliers to meet in a seemingly inevitable clash for the Eastern Conference crown.
But things change fast, and the two powerhouses weren't the clear-cut favorites to represent the East in the NBA Finals until recently.
It took a little time for fans to buy into the hype of the supremely balanced Hawks, but their solitary reign at the top of the Eastern Conference standings for most of the season is simply impossible to ignore. Atlanta head coach Mike Budenholzer has crafted a system that caters to the strengths of his talented roster—a roster featuring an abundance of All-Star-quality studs—without the need for a true superstar.
The Hawks are effective because everyone has bought into the system. Paul Millsap, Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver and Al Horford complement each other well, and Budenholzer has been squeezing the best out of his talented core.
The Cavaliers' road to being recognized as one of the Eastern Conference contenders was rocky. Cleveland looked nothing like the team it was advertised to be early on in the season, going 1-9 during a 10-game stretch in late December and early January with LeBron James on the shelf.
A 12-game winning streak followed, and the Cavs are 24-7 since then.
The addition of Timofey Mozgov through a mid-season trade with the Denver Nuggets has been especially successful, as the Russian center has provided some rim protection and fits in well with his teammates on offense. Replacing Dion Waiters with J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert through another trade has also been fruitful.
When trying to establish whether the East actually has another serious contender, it's important to remember that such a team would likely have to go through both Cleveland and Atlanta to reach the NBA Finals. It's not impossible for the Cavaliers to drop down a spot or two in the standings, but if they secure a top-three seed, they'd avoid a potential meeting with the Hawks until the third round.
Several teams could prove to be feisty postseason matchups, even though a lot of things would have to fall in their favor to upset Cleveland or Atlanta.
Washington Wizards
The Wizards went into the season with high expectations. Bradley Beal was supposed to make the big third-year leap, while a veteran addition to the wing in Paul Pierce would provide leadership and much-needed postseason experience.
Although Pierce has proved to be a solid contributor even at this stage of his career, Beal's progress has been derailed by two lengthy injury periods (left wrist and right fibula). He is shooting at a career-high 42 percent clip from beyond the arc but hasn't shown significant improvement since last year.
John Wall has been fantastic, and his playmaking ability is on par with that of the best point guards in the league. His speed and athleticism have carried the Wizards for most of the year, but that's also one of this team's problems.
Without Wall on the floor, Washington is outscored by a mind-blowing 8.2 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com. The offense suffers the most, as the team puts up an offensive rating of 96.9 with the star point guard on the bench. That figure would rank 29th in the league, ahead of just the Philadelphia 76ers, per ESPN's Hollinger stats.
In an attempt to find a suitable backup at the point, the Wizards flipped Andre Miller for Ramon Sessions. Even though Sessions may be more mobile than Miller, he is highly inefficient and not capable of keeping an already-stagnant offense flowing with Wall resting.
The bench lacks talent, but their offense overall is a bit of a mess. Even though Washington is a decent three-point-shooting team, settling for mid-range jumpers has become a bad habit. Bleacher Report's Alec Nathan explained the issue in February:
"All season long, the Wizards have been passing up threes in favor of taking mid-range jumpers. Only now, the scope of that inefficient problem has been magnified in conjunction with a slow descent down the Eastern Conference ranks.
The problem is Washington's attempting the fourth-fewest threes overall, shooting just 16 on a nightly basis. That's an issue compounded by the fact that the Wizards are hoisting 18 mid-range attempts per game and sinking 41.6 percent of them.
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Even though the Wizards are a solid defensive team, it's hard to see them winning three straight series in the East at this stage.
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors are another team that went into the year with a lot of excitement and expectations. They had a blossoming Jonas Valanciunas in the middle and an All-Star backcourt behind him. They also stumbled into Lou Williams in free agency. Toronto has had its fair share of bumps and bruises but still holds a top-three seed.
DeMar DeRozan missed 21 games due to injury and has a career-low field-goal percentage of 40.1 this season, but he has looked increasingly better. He is putting up 24.6 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game in March. Even though he is still streaky, DeRozan appears to have regained the spring in his step.
Kyle Lowry has been a wizard all year long and has found a reasonable balance between scoring and setting up his teammates.
Valanciunas hasn't been given enough time to develop, even though his numbers are solid across the board. He has a relatively low usage percentage of 18.9, according to NBA.com. He doesn't get as many touches in the post as he probably should, and Toronto's ball-handlers often opt to look for their own shots or kick the ball out to the perimeter when running pick-and-rolls with Valanciunas.
Even though he is just 22 years old and has a ton of potential, Valanciunas has seen his minutes go down this season.
While it might seem weird that head coach Dwane Casey is limiting the minutes of his young center, it's also somewhat understandable. Valanciunas is a decent rim protector, but he is still prone to making errors. Toronto is actually better defensively with him off the floor. The Raptors have been outscoring teams by 8.4 points per 100 possessions without him.
Outside of its core players, Toronto has a roster with several nice pieces.
Greivis Vasquez is a decent backup point guard, Williams provides instant offense off the bench and Patrick Patterson is an underrated big man who can stretch the floor.
Toronto is ranked fourth in offensive efficiency but just 23rd defensively, per ESPN's Hollinger stats. Even though the Raptors' offense can do a lot of damage, that type of a disparity is hardly a recipe for postseason success. They are certainly capable of giving the Cavs and the Hawks a run for their money, but it will be an uphill battle.
Chicago Bulls
The feisty and well-coached Bulls present the most interesting challenge at the top of the East. They have been banged up, and there is still a giant question mark hovering above Derrick Rose, who head coach Tom Thibodeau said is "on schedule" following a knee surgery a couple of weeks ago, according to B/R's Sean Highkin.
Rose might not be the superstar he once was, but he is certainly better than Aaron Brooks. Brooks is a solid option as a backup, but moving him into the starting unit forces Kirk Hinrich and E'Twaun Moore into the point guard rotation. Neither player has done a good job running the offense, and Rose's return would restore the proper hierarchy at the position.
There is no doubt that the Bulls need Rose to make a push in the playoffs. Chicago is 4-7 since he went down and has an offensive rating of just 99.1 in those games, according to NBA.com.
The Bulls have also been without Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson, which makes those numbers skewed. Chicago can survive without Rose if those two guys are healthy, but surviving and contending for a championship are two different things.
Gibson weighed in on the topic, suggesting he doesn't see this team making an extended postseason run without its starting point guard, according to Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times:
"Of course we need Derrick. We went deep in the past with Derrick. We've been doing good all year, but you never know. We've been preparing for this. Basically we've had to deal with this the last couple of years. But you really have to say we can’t get over that hump without him.
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Gibson's absence has allowed Nikola Mirotic to step into a bigger role, and the rookie big man has done so marvelously. He is putting up 20.3 points and 8.1 rebounds in March. Even though his three-point shot has been streaky, he has gotten to the line a ton with an increased usage rate and carried the Bulls offense through a tough time.
If the Bulls have all of their players, they have very few flaws. A frontcourt rotation featuring Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol, Gibson and Mirotic provides a dose of just about everything—stellar defense, low-post scoring, offensive rebounding, pick-and-roll versatility and outside shooting.
Chicago is a little thin on the wing, but Mike Dunleavy is a solid player, and Butler is blossoming into a star. The Bulls don't quite have the offensive talent of Cleveland, but they are a more balanced team overall. The Hawks can match that balance on both ends a little better.
Chicago's defense hasn't been as smothering this season, but the team is still sniffing around the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. If the Bulls somehow manage to stay healthy, those numbers could potentially go up. That type of stability on both ends breeds championship contenders.
The Rest of the Pack
Outside of the aforementioned three teams, there are no real threats to Atlanta and Cleveland.
The Milwaukee Bucks have certainly surprised many this season, and head coach Jason Kidd has admirably managed to keep his young roster competitive. The Bucks are a long-term project, though.
Asserting themselves as the sixth seed in the East will provide them with some much-needed playoff experience. But as fun as Milwaukee has been this year, it simply lacks the talent to contend.
After swinging a trade-deadline deal to land Goran Dragic, the Miami Heat would've been an intriguing dark horse. However, they don't stand a chance with Chris Bosh missing the rest of the season (blood clots).
The Indiana Pacers are an interesting case. They have been a disaster offensively—and understandably so. Without their two best off-the-dribble threats of last year in Lance Stephenson and Paul George, there hasn't been much creativity.
The Pacers' defense is still solid, and the hope was for George to perhaps return for a postseason run. That option was on the table, but it appears unlikely that the team will bring him back this season following a horrific leg break.
It's not impossible to upset either the Hawks or the Cavaliers, but the two contenders have firmly separated themselves from the rest of the conference. The three teams right below them have the potential to cause some havoc, but injuries and blatant flaws make the notion of an Eastern Conference Finals not featuring both Cleveland and Atlanta seem improbable.
You can follow me on Twitter: @VytisLasaitis.
