Predicting the 10 College Football Teams Most Likely to Regress in 2015
College football is one of the most popular sports in America largely because of its unpredictability. Every fall, contenders emerge from unexpected places and teams pegged for the Top 10 fall out of favor in ugly fashion. Last July, who would’ve predicted Oklahoma's and South Carolina’s struggles would've coincided with the rise of the likes of TCU and Mississippi State? Nobody. That’s what makes college football great.
It won’t be long before college football preseason preview magazines hit the newsstands, tempting our football-starved souls with glossy print, bold predictions and a $7.95 price tag. We’ll obsess over and be consumed by their predictions, realizing in the back of our minds that they’ll be rendered obsolete following the first week of the season.
We know there will be teams that surprise this fall and teams that disappoint. Which teams will slip in 2015? Here’s a look at 10 teams most likely to regress this fall.
Colorado State
1 of 10
Colorado State had a special 2014. In head coach Jim McElwain’s third season, the Rams put together their first 10-win campaign since 2002, going 10-3, challenging for a Mountain West title and going to the Las Vegas Bowl.
The nation took notice, and for CSU, that turned out to be a bad thing. Florida swooped in and hired McElwain as its head coach; the Rams hired Georgia offensive coordinator Mike Bobo as his replacement.
Bobo will have 14 returning starters to work with in his first season as a head coach, but the Rams’ losses are significant. Quarterback Garrett Grayson (4,006 yards, 32 touchdowns, seven interceptions) graduated, and leading rusher Dee Hart (1,275 yards, 16 touchdowns) entered the NFL draft a year early.
Furthermore, standout left tackle Ty Sambrailo graduated, leaving a new left tackle to protect the new quarterback. However, that new QB will throw to Rashard Higgins (96 catches, 1,750 yards, 17 touchdowns last fall).
Sophomore Nick Stevens is the most experienced returnee, and he passed for 136 yards and a touchdown last season. Colorado State gets Minnesota, Air Force and Boise State in Fort Collins, but there are myriad questions about how well the offense will fare without key pieces in Bobo’s first run.
Florida State
2 of 10
Make no mistake—the past three seasons were special for Florida State. Coaches across America would kill for the run of success Jimbo Fisher experienced: three consecutive ACC championships, a BCS national title, a 29-game win streak and a Rose Bowl appearance.
However, such runs are fueled by talented players. And NFL teams aren’t blind.
This January, the Seminoles and Fisher paid the piper for their success. Florida State suffered massive graduation and NFL draft losses, including quarterback Jameis Winston, wide receiver Rashad Greene, defensive end Mario Edwards, defensive tackle Eddie Goldman, cornerbacks Ronald Darby and P.J. Williams, tailback Karlos Williams and tight end Nick O’ Leary.
TomahawkNation.com's Bud Elliott says FSU fans should expect "a severe dropoff" in quarterback talent, simply because replacing Winston will be that difficult.
Florida State will return only nine starters, and whoever emerges as the new starting quarterback will be operating behind an offensive line that is replacing four starters. Sophomore Sean Maguire is the most experienced candidate, having started and won the Clemson game while Winston served a suspension for yelling an obscenity on Florida State’s campus.
Fisher still has talented tailback Dalvin Cook on hand and has recruited very well over the last several years. But the Seminoles will be counting on kids this fall, and it’s very unlikely they’ll pile up 13 wins in 2015.
Georgia Tech
3 of 10
Last fall, Paul Johnson quieted some critics. Georgia Tech’s outspoken head coach silenced any calls for his job with an 11-win season that included an ACC Coastal Division title and an Orange Bowl win over Mississippi State, the program’s best year since a 2009 ACC championship.
There’s good reason for fans to be excited about the 2015 Yellow Jackets, who return 13 starters. But there’s also major reason for concern. The backbone of any Johnson team is the flexbone, triple-option offense, but he’ll be replacing almost every skill player who matters, save standout junior quarterback Justin Thomas.
The Yellow Jackets lost their top receivers in DeAndre Smelter and Darren Waller (who combined for 1,157 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2014) as well as four of their top five tailbacks in Synjyn Days, Zach Laskey, Charles Perkins and Tony Zenon. Thomas (1,086 rushing yards) returns, but the top returning back is Broderick Snoddy, who had 28 carries for 283 yards and three touchdowns.
Thomas can do a lot, but he can’t do it all. The thing that makes the triple-option so dangerous is its multiple backfield options. Unless capable backs emerge, defenses will find it much easier to focus on Thomas.
Tech also has a tough schedule that features road games at Clemson, Notre Dame and Miami and home games against Florida State and Georgia. While the Yellow Jackets won’t slip below bowl eligibility, repeating 11 wins might be a stretch.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Kansas State
4 of 10
Bill Snyder is an ageless wonder, and 2014 was just another successful season in Snyder’s second run as Kansas State head coach. The Wildcats won nine games and made the Alamo Bowl, staying in contention for the Big 12 title until late November.
Snyder returns 13 starters in 2015, but there are reasons to worry in the ultra-tough Big 12.
The Wildcats lost serious offensive talent. Quarterback Jake Waters (3,501 yards passing, 22 touchdowns and seven interceptions, as well as 484 yards rushing and nine touchdowns) is gone. So are the Wildcats’ top two playmakers. Tyler Lockett was one of the nation’s most dangerous receivers, making 106 catches for 1,515 yards and 11 scores. Curry Sexton was also a 1,000-yard receiver.
Junior quarterback Joe Hubener was the only other quarterback to throw a pass on K-State’s roster last fall, throwing for 235 yards, a touchdown and an interception in mop-up time. Leading rusher Charles Jones is also returning, and Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma all visit Manhattan. But will the Wildcats have enough firepower to hang with them?
Marshall
5 of 10
Marshall had the best season you probably didn’t see on your television in 2014. The Thundering Herd won 13 games and were an overtime loss away (to Western Kentucky) from finishing an undefeated season. Doc Holliday is one of the best Group of Five coaches, but he has his work cut out for him this fall.
The Herd return 11 starters, six on defense, but lose two of their most productive offensive players from a year ago. Quarterback Rakeem Cato is gone after throwing for 3,903 yards with 40 touchdowns and 13 interceptions while adding 482 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. So is top target Tommy Shuler, who had 92 receptions for 1,138 yards and nine touchdowns.
Tailback Devon Johnson, who had 1,767 yards with 17 touchdowns, returns, but Marshall will be breaking in a new quarterback and a new left tackle. Conference USA isn’t exactly a murderer’s row, but Cato’s absence in particular will be felt early in the season.
Minnesota
6 of 10
There’s no question Jerry Kill has done an incredible job at Minnesota. Last fall, the Gophers finished 8-5 and were in contention for the Big Ten West title until the final weekend of the regular season. A Citrus Bowl bid marked Minnesota’s first New Year’s Day bowl bid in 52 years.
Taking the next step could be difficult, despite returning 14 starters. The Gophers must replace their top two offensive players. Senior tailback David Cobb graduated after rushing for 1,626 yards and 13 touchdowns, and redshirt sophomore tight end Maxx Williams, the team’s leading receiver, declared for the NFL draft after catching 36 passes for 569 yards and eight scores.
Minnesota returns developing quarterback Mitch Leidner, but its leading returning rusher is sophomore Berkley Edwards, who had 30 carries for 140 yards and two scores last fall. The Gophers’ 2015 slate includes visits from TCU, Nebraska and Wisconsin and a trip to Ohio State. Can they win eight games again? It might prove difficult.
Mississippi State
7 of 10
Mississippi State and Dan Mullen authored one of the best stories in college football last fall. The Bulldogs emerged from SEC West mediocrity to become one of the nation’s top teams, spending four weeks at No. 1 (for the first time in program history) and finishing 10-3 with an Orange Bowl berth.
Mullen was rewarded with a contract extension from MSU athletic director Scott Stricklin, and Mullen made it clear, per Michael Bonner of The Clarion-Ledger, that expectations will be higher in 2015.
"We have only scratched this surface on what we can accomplish here," Mullen said following the extension. "We have created a winning culture both on and off the field and built a program that has sustained success in the nation's toughest conference. I've always said we are going to win a championship here, and I firmly believe that."
It was a season to remember, but repeating it will be very difficult. The Bulldogs scored a major victory when quarterback Dak Prescott (who accounted for 4,435 yards of total offense and 41 touchdowns) came back to school for his senior season, but that was the only big win.
Mississippi State was hit hard by graduation and NFL draft departures. Leading rusher Josh Robinson (1,203 yards, 11 touchdowns) departed, as did top linebacker Benardrick McKinney. MSU also must replace three starting offensive linemen and only returns eight starters from 2014.
With a typically difficult SEC West schedule ahead, it’s hard to imagine this team finishing with double-digit victories again.
Missouri
8 of 10
Missouri has made a habit of exceeding expectations in the SEC. Following a middling first season in its new conference, Gary Pinkel’s team won back-to-back SEC East titles, taking the SEC East and winning 11 games last fall. The Tigers return 13 starters in 2015, but surpassing expectations will be a theme again this fall.
While Mizzou returns up-and-down quarterback Maty Mauk (25 touchdowns, 13 interceptions in 2014) and 1,000-yard rusher Russell Hansbrough, the Tigers have no pass-catchers of note returning.
The top four receivers from a year ago (1,000-yard receiver Bud Sasser, Jimmie Hunt, Darius White and tailback Marcus Murphy) all graduated. The leading returning receiver is tight end Sean Culkin, who had 20 receptions for 174 yards and a touchdown. He and Hansbrough are the only players on the roster who had as many as six receptions last fall.
On defense, Missouri returns seven starters but must replace three defensive linemen, including All-America defensive end Shane Ray, an early NFL draft departure. The Tigers might not fade out of bowl contention, but another 10-win season could be a tall order.
Utah
9 of 10
Utah and coach Kyle Whittingham enjoyed a bounce-back season in 2014. Following a pair of 5-7 seasons, the Utes went 9-4, capping the season with a Las Vegas Bowl rout of Colorado State. Utah will return 15 starters, led by tailback Devontae Booker, who had 1,512 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns, adding 43 receptions for 306 yards and two scores.
However, there are serious questions. Standout left tackle Jeremiah Poutasi left early for the NFL. Leading receiver Kaelin Clay is gone, as is defensive end Nate Orchard, who piled up 84 tackles, 21 tackles for loss and 18.5 sacks in 2014. There was also major turnover on Utah’s staff, with three assistants—including both coordinators—leaving. Neither Travis Wilson nor Kendal Thompson truly stood out at quarterback, either.
Utah opens with games against Michigan and tough rival Utah State, and it must travel to Oregon, Southern California, Washington and Arizona. The Utes will be bowl-eligible again, but they might slip a notch or two in the Pac-12 chain of command.
Wisconsin
10 of 10
It was a major surprise when Gary Andersen bolted Wisconsin for Oregon State, but new coach Paul Chryst inherits a solid situation as he returns to his hometown of Madison. That said, it might be tough for Chryst to duplicate last season’s 11-win season in his debut as the Badgers head coach.
Wisconsin must replace Heisman Trophy runner-up Melvin Gordon, who had the second-best single-season rushing total in FBS history with 2,587 yards and 29 touchdowns. The Badgers also must replace three starting offensive linemen, although tailback Corey Clement (949 yards, nine touchdowns) should carry the load nicely in the backfield.
However, the quarterback situation is, at best, unstable. Neither Joel Stave nor Tanner McEvoy was the answer last fall: Stave threw nine touchdowns against 10 interceptions, Wisconsin threw for 148.7 passing yards per game, No. 118 nationally, and Stave will likely face a challenge from freshman quarterbacks D.J. Gillins and Austin Kafentzis.
Wisconsin opens with a neutral-site game against Alabama and must travel to Nebraska and Minnesota this season, but it does avoid Ohio State and Michigan State from the Big Ten East. If the new offensive pieces gel, another Big Ten West title is possible. If not, a decline could happen.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
